My most perspicacious contribution–okay, okay my only perspicacious contribution!–to the collective understanding of the American political landscape is starkly identifying how the Democrat presidential nomination runs right through the middle of the black vote.
Black primary voters and caucus goers have been close to monolithic in their electoral behavior since 2008. Though Clinton beat Obama among white and Hispanic primary voters, Obama obliterated her 85%-15% among blacks. He consequently won the nomination.
In 2016, Sanders beat Clinton among white primary voters but Clinton crushed him among blacks, 78%-22%. She learned her lesson from 2008 and was the party’s standard-bearer in 2016 as a result.
Based primarily on this understanding I predicted early on that Harris would be the 2020 nominee, and became convinced of as much after Deval Patrick announced he would not run. In a field as pallor as this one, I reasoned she’d be black enough.
The black vote will still prove determinative, but a childless blue-blooded Brahmin with slave-owning ancestors and an elite Ashkenazi husband may not be able to out-black the first black president’s right-hand man. Biden has done a surprisingly good job holding onto black support. From the most recent RCP-recognized poll, black Democrat primary voter support by candidate (excluded candidates did not poll above 2%):
Warren’s odds have recently risen as it becomes increasingly clear that Sanders has no path to victory. She is the progressive choice of grown ups; he the socialist choice of millennials. While Sanders has twice the support Warren does among those under the age of 45, she has three times the support he does among those over 45–and it’s the fogies who come out to vote.
The same poll shows Warren with a plurality of white primary voter support (excluded candidates did not poll above 3%):
It will come down the stretch to Warren against either Biden or Harris, but the nomination will be determined by whoever wins out between the latter two. The SWPLs supporting Warren are unlikely to vote en masse against the black choice. It would be racist to do so.
Expect Harris to escalate with this approach:
“I do not believe you are a racist” is a Scott Adams’ caliber rhetorical kill shot.