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Race and Crime in America
The unspoken statistical reality of urban crime over the last quarter century.
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    ViewAsPDF2 The noted science fiction writer Philip K. Dick once declared that “Reality is what continues to exist whether you believe in it or not.” Such an observation should be kept in mind when we consider some of the touchier aspects of American society.

    Recall the notorious case of Daniel Patrick Moynihan, whose 1965 report on the terrible deterioration in the condition of the black American family aroused such a firestorm of denunciation and outrage in liberal circles that the topic was rendered totally radioactive for the better part of a generation. Eventually the continuing deterioration reached such massive proportions that the subject was taken up again by prominent liberals in the 1980s, who then declared Moynihan a prophetic voice, unjustly condemned.

    This contentious history of racially-charged social analysis was certainly in the back of my mind when I began my quantitative research into Hispanic crime rates in late 2009. One traditional difficulty in producing such estimates had been the problematical nature of the data. Although the FBI Uniform Crime Reports readily show the annual totals of black and Asian criminal perpetrators, Hispanics are generally grouped together with whites and no separate figures are provided, thereby allowing all sorts of extreme speculation by those so inclined.

    In order to distinguish reality from vivid imagination, a major section of my analysis focused on the data from America’s larger cities, exploring the correlations between their FBI-reported crime rates and their Census-reported ethnic proportions. If urban crime rates had little relation to the relative size of the local Hispanic population, this would indicate that Hispanics did not have unusually high rates of criminality. Furthermore, densely populated urban centers have almost always had far more crime than rural areas or suburbs, so restricting the analysis to cities would reduce the impact of that extraneous variable, which might otherwise artificially inflate the national crime statistics for a heavily urbanized population group such as Hispanics.

    My expectations proved entirely correct, and the correlations between Hispanic percentages and local crime rates were usually quite close to the same figures for whites, strongly supporting my hypothesis that the two groups had fairly similar rates of urban criminality despite their huge differences in socio-economic status. But that same simple calculation yielded a remarkably strong correlation between black numbers and crime, fully confirming the implications of the FBI racial data on perpetrators.

    This presented me with an obvious quandary. The topic of my article was “Hispanic crime” and my research findings were original and potentially an important addition to the public policy debate. Yet the black crime figures in my charts and graphs were so striking that I realized they might easily overshadow my other results, becoming the focus of an explosive debate that would inevitably deflect attention away from my central conclusion. Therefore, I chose to excise the black results, perhaps improperly elevating political prudence over intellectual candor.

    I further justified this decision by noting that black crime in America had been an important topic of public discussion for at least the last half-century. I reasoned that my findings must surely have been quietly known for decades to most social scientists in the relevant fields, and hence would add little to existing knowledge. However, since that time a few private discussions have led me to seriously question that assumption, as has the emotion-laden but vacuous media firestorm surrounding the George Zimmerman trial. I have therefore now decided to publish an expanded and unexpurgated version of my analysis, which I believe may have important explanatory value as well as some interesting policy implications.

    The Pattern of Urban Crime in America

    My central methodology is simple. I obtained the crime rates and ethnic percentages of America’s larger cities from official government data sources and calculated the population-weighted cross-correlations. In order to minimize the impact of statistical outliers, I applied this same approach to hundreds of different datasets: each of the years 1985 through 2011; homicide rates, robbery rates, and violent crime overall; all large cities of 250,000 and above and also restricted only to major cities of at least 500,000. I obtained these urban crime correlations with respect to the percentages of local whites, blacks, and Hispanics, but excluded Asians since their numbers were quite insignificant until recently (here and throughout this article, “white” shall refer to non-Hispanic whites).

    I also attempted to estimate these same results for the overall immigrant population. The overwhelming majority of immigrants since 1965 have been Hispanic or Asian while conversely the overwhelming majority of those two population groups have a relatively recent immigrant family background. So the combined population of Hispanics and Asians constitutes a good proxy for the immigrant community, and allows us to determine the immigrant relationship to crime rates.

    Presented graphically, these various urban crime correlations are as follows:

    HomicideRatesCities250k

    RobberyRatesCities250k

    ViolentCrimesCities250k

     

    HomicideRatesCities500k

    RobberyRatesCities500k

    ViolentCrimesCities500k

    These charts demonstrate that over the last twenty-five years the weighted correlations for each of the crime categories against the percentages of whites, Hispanics, and “immigrants” (i.e. Hispanics-plus-Asians) have fluctuated in the general range of -0.20 to -0.60. Interestingly enough, for most of the last decade the presence of Hispanics and immigrants has become noticeably less associated with crime than the presence of whites, although that latter category obviously exhibits large regional heterogeneity. Meanwhile, in the case of blacks, the weighted crime correlations have steadily risen from 0.60 to around 0.80 or above, almost always now falling within between 0.75 and 0.85.

    These particular calculations do rely upon several minor methodological choices. For example, I have used the 2000 Census population thresholds for selecting the sixty-odd large cities in my dataset, while I could have chosen some other year instead. The substantial annual fluctuations in the urban ethnic percentages provided by the Census-ACS estimates led me to instead use the interpolated Census figures for all years. The annual urban population totals used by the FBI sometimes differ slightly from the Census numbers, and I used the former for population-weighting purposes. However, all my results were quite robust with respect to these particular decisions, and modifying them would produce results largely indistinguishable from those presented above.

    ORDER IT NOW

    On a more difficult matter, there is always the possibility of local bias in FBI crime statistics, with the data for some cities possibly being more reliable or comprehensive than for others. But the reporting rate for homicides is widely accepted as close to 100 percent, and the close correspondence between the results for this “gold standard” crime category and those for the robbery and violent crime rates tends to confirm the validity of the latter. In any event, we would expect the highest-crime areas to be those most likely to suffer from under-reporting problems, so we would expect our figures to somewhat underestimate the true size of the correlations.

    It is important to recognize that within the world of academic sociology discovering an important correlation in the range of 0.80 or above is quite remarkable, almost extraordinary. And even these correlations between black population prevalence and urban crime rates may actually tend to significantly understate the reality. All these correlations were performed on a city-wide aggregate basis. The New York City numbers include both the Upper East Side and Brownsville, Los Angeles both Bel Air and Watts, Chicago the Gold Coast and Englewood, with each city’s totals averaging those of both the wealthiest and the most dangerous districts. This crude methodology tends to obscure the local pattern of crime, which usually varies tremendously between different areas, often roughly corresponding to the lines of racial segregation. It is hardly a secret that impoverished black areas do have far higher crime rates than affluent white ones.

    If instead we relied upon smaller geographical units such as neighborhoods, our results would be much more precise, but ethnicity data is provided by zip code while crime data is reported by precinct, so a major research undertaking would be required to match these dissimilar aggregational units for calculation purposes. However, the apparent geographical pattern of crime in these cities and most others might lead us to suspect that our national racial correlations would become substantially greater under such a more accurate approach, perhaps often reaching or even exceeding the 0.90 level. The inescapable conclusion is that local urban crime rates in America seem to be almost entirely explained by the local racial distribution.

    But could such a strikingly simple sociological truth possibly be correct? After all, academic scholars have long advanced a wide variety of different socio-economic explanations for crime, and these have often been heavily promoted by pundits and the media. Commonly cited factors have been urban density, especially in the case of high-rise housing projects, and local poverty. There is also the relative number of police officers to consider. We should certainly compare the possible influence of these factors with the ethnic ones examined above.

    Since the geographical borders of a city are generally fixed, average population densities are easy to calculate and in recent years their apparent impact upon crime rates has been negligible, whether for homicide, robbery, or violent crime in general. For the last dozen years, the density/crime correlations have always ranged between 0.20 and -0.20 and were usually close to zero. Perhaps many of us have an intuitive mental image of densely populated East Coast cities being natural hotbeds of crime. But this appears incorrect: crime rates and urban density seem to have little connection.

    What about the sizes of the various urban police departments? Although precise comparisons are sometimes difficult, the Bureau of Justice Statistics periodically publishes official reports on the subject, and the latest 2007 study lists the numerical totals of America’s fifty largest urban police forces, allowing us to calculate the weighted correlations between these per capita policing levels and the corresponding crime rates of the years 2007-2011. We discover that there actually exists a moderately strong positive correlation, generally falling in the range 0.30-0.60: the more police, the more crime. Although this might seem counterintuitive, the explanation becomes obvious once we reverse the direction of causation. Higher crime rates usually persuade local authorities to hire additional police officers.

    Finally, although urban crime rates do track local economic conditions, the relationship is far from tight. For the years 2006-2011, the Census-ACS provides estimates of the Mean Income, Median Income, and Poverty Rates for each urban center, and we can easily perform the same calculations we did in the racial case. The correlations between the Mean Income and Median Income levels and the various crime categories generally fall in the range of -0.40 to -0.60, being moderately rather than strongly negative. Even the correlation between Poverty Rate and crime—supported by the obvious truism that most street criminals are poor—is hardly enormous, falling between 0.50 and 0.70, and usually well below our racial figures.

    The relative strength of these different correlations may be seen by a chart superimposing the economic and ethnic results for the last dozen years of robbery rate correlations for our major cities. Although the hard economic times since 2008 have considerably increased the influence of the poverty correlate, that factor is still considerably less significant than the racial one.

    RobberyRatesCities500kPoverty

    Indeed, the race/crime correlation so substantially exceeds the poverty/crime relationship that much of the latter may simply be a statistical artifact due to most urban blacks being poor. Consider that both blacks and Hispanics currently have similar national poverty rates in the one-third range, more than double the white figure, and each constitutes well over 20% of our urban population. However, major cities with substantial poverty but few blacks usually tend to have far lower levels of crime. For example, El Paso and Atlanta are comparable in size and have similar poverty rates, but the latter has eight times the robbery rate and over ten times the homicide rate. Within California, Oakland approximately matches Santa Ana in size and poverty, but has several times the rate of crime. Thus, it seems plausible that removing the black population from our calculation might actually reduce the residual poverty/crime correlation for non-blacks to a moderate or even a low figure.

    To some extent, this surprising possibility is merely a statistical syllogism. Whenever the correlation to a single factor approaches unity, no other non-equivalent item may have a large, independent impact. And failing to recognize the existence of such a single, overwhelming factor might lead us to misidentify numerous other spurious influences, whose apparent causal importance actually derives from their own correlations with the primary item. For many years, the black connection to local crime has been so strong as to almost eliminate the possible role of any other variable.

    We must obviously be cautious in interpreting the meaning of these statistical findings since correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Over the last few years the crime correlation for Hispanic or Hispanic-plus-Asian numbers has been substantially more negative than the same figure for whites, but this does not necessarily prove that whites are much more likely to commit urban crime, though it would tend to rule out the contrary possibility that Hispanics or immigrants have far higher rates of criminality.

    However, if we examine the official FBI arrest statistics, we find that these seem to support the most straightforward interpretation of our racial crime correlations. For example, blacks in America were over six times as likely to be arrested for homicide in 2011 as non-blacks and over eight times as likely to be arrested for robbery; the factors for previous years were usually in a similar range. The accuracy of this racial pattern of arrests is generally confirmed by the corresponding racial pattern of victim-identification statements, also aggregated by the FBI. Indeed, several years ago the liberal Sentencing Project organization estimated that some one-third of all American black men are already convicted criminals by their 20s, and the fraction would surely be far higher for those living in urban areas.

    A sense of the real world impact of these grim statistics may be found in the stratified 2011 Census-ACS data for major American cities. The three urban centers with the largest black populations are New York City, Chicago, and Philadelphia, and together they contain over one-third more adult black women than black men. The corresponding national shortfall of black males runs well into the millions, partly accounting for the notorious “marriage gap” problems faced by women of their background. Those millions of missing black men are generally dead or in prison.

    Over the last few years, the official publications of the Bureau of Justice Statistics have made it increasingly difficult to determine the racial totals of inmates in state prisons and local jails but the figures from the mid-2000s probably still provide a reasonable estimate, and I had used these in my 2010 article. Since crime is overwhelmingly committed by young males, for comparative purposes we should normalize all these incarceration totals against the base population of adult males in their prime-crime years, and the results are summarized in my previously published chart, reprinted here.

    HispanicCrime-chart1

    Since the mid-1990s, the issue of street crime has mostly dropped off the front pages of our national newspapers and disappeared from the public debate. Meanwhile, black Americans have gained much greater visibility in the upper reaches of our national elites, while Barack Obama has been elected and reelected as our first black president. This might seem to indicate that traditional racial cleavages in our society have become less substantial. Furthermore, with such enormous numbers of young black men now in prison, we might naturally expect that the racial character of American urban crime rates has sharply declined over the last couple of decades. However, the quantitative evidence demonstrates the exact opposite situation, as may be seen by examining the combined twenty-five year trajectories of our various racial crime correlations, which have steadily grown more extreme. The images shown on our film screens or television sets may portray one America, but the actual data reveals a very different country.

    BlackCrimeCities250k

    Once we accept the reality of these stark racial facts, we must naturally wonder about the causes, and also why the historical trends seem to have been moving in exactly the wrong direction over most of the last quarter-century. Certainly many theoretical explanations have been advanced, both from the Left and the Right, and whole library shelves have been filled with books on the subject since the urban violence of the 1960s. A short article is no place for me to summarize such a vast literature on a contentious topic, especially when I can provide no original insights of my own. But good theoretical analysis requires a solid factual grounding, and my main purpose here is to establish those facts, which others may then choose to interpret howsoever they wish. Absent such information, any national dialogue becomes an exercise in empty ideological posturing.

    The Racial Subtext of American Electoral Politics

    Racial issues have traditionally been among the most highly charged in American public life, and the nexus of crime and race has been exceptionally contentious for many decades. Under these circumstances respectable scholars tend to be cautious in discussing or merely investigating this topic, and the mainstream media is usually even more gun-shy. The striking racial findings presented above require only trivial statistical calculations and may be glimpsed in any casual inspection of the crime rankings of our major cities. But I remain uncertain to what extent they are already recognized by our experts in social policy.

    For example, when I presented my correlation results to one very prominent conservative social scientist, he found them shocking and remarkable, and said he had never imagined that the statistical relationship between race and crime was so extremely strong. But when I showed the same data to an equally prominent liberal academic, he took the information in stride and said he assumed that almost all experts were already quietly aware of the general facts. The reactions of other knowledgeable individuals fell all along this spectrum ranging from surprise to familiarity. Knowledge so explosive that it is usually unspoken and unreported may easily remain unknown even to many of our foremost intellectuals.

    But whether or not most of our ruling elites explicitly recognize the stark racial character of American crime, the reality still exists, and we should consider exploring whether these unpublicized facts may have had broader influences in our society, possibly in seemingly unrelated areas. After all, urban crime has frequently been a leading issue in American public life, during some periods ranking as one of the most important. Certain matters may not be easily discussed in polite company these days, but if even just a portion of the citizenry is intuitively aware of the situation, their attitudes might have broader ripple effects throughout the entire population. Is there any substantial evidence for this?

    ORDER IT NOW

    Consider the electoral behavior of American whites, and especially their inclination to support either Democratic or Republican candidates. Because of gerrymandering, most individual congressional districts are overwhelmingly aligned with one party or another, and general elections are a mere formality; this is often also true of statewide races for senator or governor. However, in presidential elections both parties almost always field viable national candidates with a reasonable chance of winning, so these provide the best means of gauging white political alignment. And for these campaigns, the racial lines are clearly established, with the modern Republicans being the “white party,” drawing over 90% of their support from that demographic group, while over 90% of blacks regularly vote the Democratic ticket, which also usually attracts the overwhelming majority of other non-white voters.

    As I pointed out in a 2011 article, there has been a striking statewide pattern to white voting behavior over the last couple of decades. Many conservative activists and media pundits have spent years attacking immigrants, illegal or otherwise, and have regularly denounced the cultural threat posed by the growing population of non-English-speakers or non-white foreigners. Nevertheless, the empirical fact is that presence or absence of large numbers of Hispanics or Asians in a given state seems to have virtually no impact upon white voting patterns. Meanwhile, there exists a strong relationship between the size of a state’s black population and the likelihood that local whites will favor the Republicans. The weighted-average correlations between the racial compositions of the fifty states and the degree to which their white voters favor Republican presidential candidates is summarized in the following chart.

    WhiteRepublicanSupport

    GOP leaders are always fearful of being denounced as “racist” by the major media, and often seek to camouflage the underlying source of their electoral support by adopting the most extreme forms of tokenism, promoting black party leaders and spokesmen while heavily recruiting black candidates and focusing almost entirely upon non-racial issues. Conservative activists often rhetorically identify themselves as heirs to the “party of Lincoln” and may even accuse their Democratic opponents of seeking to keep blacks in Welfare State bondage. But the actual data tells a very different story about the likely sources of Republican support.

    The strength of this pattern may be seen at its extremes. Mississippi is the state with the highest black percentage and across all six elections its white population was the most likely to vote Republican, with the figures recently running at nearly the 90% level. Louisiana, Georgia, and South Carolina are generally clustered together as the next blackest in population, and in most elections their white populations were the next most likely to support the Republican ticket, although being sometimes exceeded by the whites of Alabama, the fifth or sixth blackest state during those decades.

    By contrast, consider the three states with the largest non-white percentages: Hawaii, California, and New Mexico. The whites of the first two have actually been far less likely to vote Republican than whites nationwide, while those in New Mexico fall close to the national average. This tends to confirm the national statistical results that the widespread presence of non-whites, even in overwhelming numbers, seems to have little impact upon white voting behavior.

    While I would not argue that black crime is the sole determining factor behind the racial polarization in white voting behavior, I do suspect it is one of the largest contributors. Empirically, the presence of blacks causes whites to vote the “law-and-order” Republican ticket, while the presence of Hispanics or Asians seems to have negligible political impact.

    Nevertheless, we should remain cautious in interpreting these results. For example, although these national correlations are certainly substantial, they are almost entirely due to the weighting of the Southern states, in which blacks are almost 20% of the total population and racial tensions have traditionally been the strongest. In non-Southern states, the correlations are nil, perhaps partly because blacks are found in far smaller numbers, being less than 9% of the total.

    The Hidden Motive for Heavy Immigration?

    Consider also the highly contentious issue of immigration. Obviously, much of the underlying conflict is purely economic in character, with workers aware that restricting the supply of available labor will protect their bargaining power over wages, while businesses seek to maximize their profits by expanding the pool of potential employees, whether low-skilled or high-tech.

    But all involved participants quickly discover that despite endless protestations to the contrary there is also a clear racial subtext, usually accounting for the emotionality of the debate. For the last half-century, the overwhelming majority of immigrants, especially illegal ones, have been non-white, and the resulting racial fears have been a central motivating force driving many of the most zealous restrictionists, who fear being swamped by a tidal wave of “the Other.” However, I believe that racial considerations, whether fully conscious or not, might also be found on the other side of the issue, helping to explain why our national leadership today so uniformly endorses very heavy foreign immigration.

    America’s ruling financial, media, and political elites are largely concentrated in three major urban centers—New York City, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C.—and all three have contained large black populations, including a violent underclass. During the early 1990s, many observers feared New York City was headed for urban collapse due to its enormously high crime rates, Los Angeles experienced the massive and deadly Rodney King Riots, and Washington often vied for the title of American homicide capital. In each city, the violence and crime were overwhelmingly committed by black males, and although white elites were rarely the victims, their fears were quite palpable.

    One obvious reaction to these concerns was strong political support for a massive national crackdown on crime, and the prison incarceration of black men increased by almost 500% during the two decades after 1980. But even after such enormous rates of imprisonment, official FBI statistics indicate that blacks today are still over 600% as likely to commit homicide than non-blacks and their robbery rate is over 700% larger; these disparities seem just as high with respect to Hispanic or Asian immigrants as they are for whites. Thus, replacing a city’s blacks with immigrants would tend to lower local crime rates by as much as 90%, and during the 1990s American elites may have become increasingly aware of this important fact, together with the obvious implications for their quality of urban life and housing values.

    According to Census data, between 1990 and 2010 the number of Hispanics and Asians increased by one-third in Los Angeles, by nearly 50% in New York City, and by over 70% in Washington, D.C. The inevitable result was to squeeze out much of the local black population, which declined, often substantially, in each location. And all three cities experienced enormous drops in local crime, with homicide rates falling by 73%, 79%, and 72% respectively, perhaps partly as a result of these underlying demographic changes. Meanwhile, the white population increasingly shifted toward the affluent, who were best able to afford the sharp rise in housing prices. It is an undeniable fact that American elites, conservative and liberal alike, are today almost universally in favor of very high levels of immigration, and their possible recognition of the direct demographic impact upon their own urban circumstances may be an important but unspoken factor in shaping their views.

    As an anecdotal example, consider the case of Matthew Yglesias, a prominent young liberal blogger living in Washington, DC. A couple of years ago he recounted on his blogsite how he was suddenly attacked from behind and seriously beaten by two young men while walking home one evening from a dinner party. At first he was quite cagey about identifying his attackers, but he eventually admitted they were blacks, possibly engaged in the growing racial practice of urban “polar bear hunting” so widely publicized by the Drudge Report and other rightwing websites.

    Few matters are more likely to trouble the minds of our Harvard-educated intellectual elite than fear of suffering random violent assaults while they walk the streets of their own city. Yet no respectable progressive would possibly focus on the racial character of such an attack, let alone advocate the removal of local blacks as a precautionary measure. Instead Yglesias suggested that housing-density issues might have been responsible and that better urban planning would reduce crime.

    But consider that support for very high levels of foreign immigration is an impeccably liberal cause, and such policies inevitably displace and remove huge numbers of urban blacks; it is easy to imagine that Yglesias quietly redoubled his pro-immigration zeal in the wake of the incident. Multiply this personal example a thousand-fold, and perhaps an important strand of the tremendous pro-immigration ideological framework of American elites becomes apparent. The more conspiratorially-minded racialists, bitterly hostile to immigration, sometimes speculate that there is a diabolical plot by our ruling power structure to “race-replace” America’s traditional white population. Perhaps a hidden motive along these lines does indeed help explain some support for heavy immigration, but I suspect that the race being targeted for replacement is not the white one.

    Such factors may also play a role outside the major urban centers discussed above and even where least suspected. Among all American businessmen, Silicon Valley executives are probably strongest in their pro-immigration advocacy, as indicated by the major political advertising campaign recently launched by top technology CEOs, organized together as “FWD.us.” Obviously, their own cosmopolitan background and desire for an unlimited supply of inexpensive, high-quality engineers is their primary motive. However, widespread sentiments in favor of lesser-educated immigrant groups such as undocumented Latin Americans also seem quite strong, and we find Steve Jobs’ wealthy widow Laurene Powell Jobs focusing her efforts almost exclusively on that particular aspect of the legislation, with her sentiments hardly being discordant with those of her wealthy peer group. Could hidden racial factors be part of the explanation? That might seem quite unlikely since Silicon Valley’s black population has been very low for decades, running in the 3 or 4 percent range.

    However, a closer examination reveals a very different situation. The small city of Palo Alto is one of the most desirable local residential areas, home to the late Steve Jobs, as well as the current CEOs of Apple, Google, Facebook, Yahoo, and a host of other companies; by some estimates, it may contain the world’s highest per capita concentration of billionaires. On three sides, Palo Alto abuts communities of a similar character: Mountain View, containing Google; the Stanford University campus; and Menlo Park, the center of America’s venture capital industry. But on the fourth side, mostly separated by Highway 101, lies East Palo Alto, which for decades was a dangerous ghetto, overwhelmingly black.

    I moved back to Palo Alto from New York City in 1992, and that year East Palo Alto recorded America’s highest per capita murder rate; although relatively few of the homicides, robberies, and rapes spilled across the border, enough did to leave many people uneasy. Gated communities and even street fences are quite uncommon in the region, and for years anyone who wished could go to the home of Steve Jobs and walk around his yard or even peer into his windows. Meanwhile, the sort of harsh racial profiling widely practiced in some large cities was completely abhorrent to the socially liberal citizenry. One may easily imagine a scenario in which escalating street crime from the ghetto next door might have produced a collapse in high housing prices and sparked a massive flight of the wealthy.

    One reason this did not occur was the vast influx of impoverished immigrants from south of the border that swept into the less affluent communities of the region during those same years and rapidly transformed the local demographics. Between 1980 and 2010 the combined Hispanic population of Santa Clara and San Mateo counties nearly tripled. A city offering cheap housing such as East Palo Alto saw far greater relative increases, reversing its demographics during that period from 60% black and 14% Hispanic to 16% black and 65% Hispanic. Over the last twenty years, the homicide rate in that small city dropped by 85%, with similar huge declines in other crime categories as well, thereby transforming a miserable ghetto into a pleasant working-class community, now featuring new office complexes, luxury hotels, and large regional shopping centers. Multi-billionaire Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and his wife recently purchased a large $9 million home just a few hundred feet from the East Palo Alto border, a decision that would have been unthinkable during the early 1990s. Technology executives are highly quantitative individuals, skilled in pattern recognition, and I find it difficult to believe that they have all remained completely oblivious to these local racial factors.

    ORDER IT NOW

    However the powerful role of immigration in transforming the crime rates of important urban centers probably had a much smaller impact on the national totals. The combined black populations of New York City, Washington, and Los Angeles may have dropped by half a million over the last two decades, but the individuals pushed out did not disappear from the world; they merely moved to Atlanta or Baltimore or Riverside. But from the personal perspective of America’s ruling elite, they did indeed disappear.

    For over thirty years, local black activists in Washington, D.C. have accused the ruling white power structure of promoting “The Plan,” a deliberate strategy of removing most of the black population from our national capital and replacing them with whites; and this “conspiracy theory” has been endlessly ridiculed as absurdly paranoid nonsense by our elite Washington media. Meanwhile, during this same thirty year period, Washington’s black population dropped from over 70% to less than half and will probably fall below the white total within the next few years.

    Indeed, the strong support of our political elites for Section 8 housing vouchers may be less connected with any alleged social benefits these provide than with their important role in moving large numbers of impoverished urban residents away from the near vicinity of wealthy neighborhoods out into the remote suburbs of the middle class. Several years ago the Atlantic published a major article by Hanna Rosin on the rapid changes in the geographical pattern of crime induced by these demographic shifts, and the piece provoked much discussion even though the author avoided unduly emphasizing the troubling racial aspects. Elite selfishness is hardly surprising and a policy of exporting those populations with a strong link to crime into other localities seems a natural strategy, especially if this can be accomplished under the altruistic guise of socially-uplifting anti-poverty programs.

    Finally, it is important to emphasize that this clear political interplay between heavy levels of immigration and black urban displacement is a relatively recent development and certainly was not anticipated by the original promoters of the 1965 Immigration Act. Indeed, although restrictionists routinely denounce that legislation for having flooded America with Hispanic immigrants, the facts are precisely the opposite. While the 1924 Immigration Act had drastically curtailed immigration from Europe (and Asia), the entire Western Hemisphere was totally exempted, and the U.S. retained its previous “open borders” policy for Mexico and the rest of Latin America until strict quotas were finally introduced as part of the 1965 law. Although these 1965 changes were expected to enable renewed European immigration, no one anticipated the vast inflow of Hispanic and Asian immigrants in the decades that followed, nor the resulting impact upon the racial composition of our major cities. But today these continuing urban demographic changes may have now become a significant motive in the minds of the elites advocating increased immigration under the legislation being considered by Congress.

    During the 1960s black author James Baldwin coined the widely-quoted phrase “Urban renewal means Negro removal.” I suspect that a somewhat similar semi-intentional national policy is today transforming America’s leading urban centers, although it remains almost entirely unreported by our mainstream media.

    On rare occasions, the mask slips and the underlying mental workings of our national elites are momentarily revealed. Consider New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, one of our most vocal pro-immigration voices on the national stage and a man whose vast wealth and influence often allow him to be far more candid on controversial topics than most other public figures. In May 2011 Bloomberg was interviewed on Meet the Press, and explained that if he had full authority, he could easily fix the seemingly insoluble problems of a city like Detroit at no cost to the taxpayer. He proposed opening wide the floodgates to unlimited foreign immigration on the condition that all the additional immigrants moved to Detroit and lived there for a decade or so, thereby transforming the city. I suspect this provides an important insight into how he and his friends discuss certain racial issues in private.

    The Remarkable New York City Exception

    Powerful quantitative evidence for social determinism may be dispiriting, and when the main determinant seems to be race, many Americans will choose to throw up their hands and ignore the statistical facts, simply hoping that these might somehow be proven incorrect. That is certainly their privilege, but for those individuals who prefer to grit their teeth and mine the data for contrary indications, there do exist a few interesting nuggets.

    Weighted average correlations are a very useful summary statistic, but they neither tell the whole story nor do they preclude the existence of outlying cases, which might provide some insights on ameliorating the grim situation we have described. And it so happens that among our many dozens of major urban centers one of the most extreme race/crime outliers is neither small nor obscure: New York City. Our largest metropolis often has crime rates that deviate sharply from the usual urban pattern observed almost everywhere else.

    Recall our earlier mention of the surprising absence of any correlation between urban population density and crime rates. Those summary statistics were correct, but they also hid some important variations and the null overall result was almost entirely due to the extremely high density and low crime rates in America’s largest city, combined with its huge population-weighting. If we excluded New York City from our calculations, the remainder of America’s major urban centers would demonstrate some moderately strong and fairly stable correlations between density and crime over the last dozen years; for example, density has generally had a positive correlation of around 0.35 with robbery rates.

    Similar anomalies appear in the racial crime calculations that have been the central focus of our analysis. Based on its racial composition, we would expect New York City’s homicide rate to be some 70% higher than it actually is, with robbery and violent crime also being far more widespread. Cities like San Jose and San Diego may have homicide and violent crime rates only half that of New York City, but given the stark differences in their underlying demographics, it is New York City’s Finest who deserves praise for their remarkable effectiveness in crime prevention. Evaluating the apparent success or failure of urban law enforcement policies without candidly considering a city’s demographic challenges may lead to incorrect policy judgments.

    Little of New York City’s success in crime prevention seems due to the relative size of its police force, which is roughly similar to those of Chicago, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Boston on a per capita basis, and far below that of Washington, D.C., all cities whose crime rates reflect their demographics. So it appears that New York City’s crime-fighting methods rather than merely the number of its officers has been the crucial factor.

    Ideas have consequences, as do attempts to avoid them. For most of the last twenty years, the policing methods implemented under mayors Rudolph Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg won enormous national praise as they so dramatically cut New York crime rates: murders dropped by over three-quarters. But during the last few years, some of these same policies have begun receiving widespread criticism among those pundits who may have forgotten just how bad things were two decades ago.

    Our simple statistical analysis obviously does not allow us to disentangle the relative importance of the different factors behind New York City’s success. Since the early 1990s, the city implemented a “community policing” model as well as pioneering the rapid use of local crime data to pinpoint dangerous hotspots and allocate resources more accurately. But other elements of the package have included strict, even harsh policing methods, such as the widespread use of “stop-and-frisk” to reduce gun violence. Denouncing these techniques as unconstitutional or racially discriminatory may be perfectly justified, but those who do so must consider the trade-offs involved, including the very real possibility of a 70% rise in homicides if local policing effectiveness declined to levels found in the rest of the country.

    Let us compare the demographic and crime trends of New York City and Washington, twin abodes of our East Coast urban elite. Between 1985 and 2011, Washington’s homicide rate dropped by 26%, robbery fell 27%, and violent crime in general was cut by 30%; but the city’s black population also dropped by 27% during this same period. Meanwhile, New York City’s corresponding declines in crime were far greater, 67%, 78%, and 67% respectively, but were accompanied by only a small 7% decline in black numbers. For all these serious crime rates to decline at nearly ten times the rate of their primary racial determinant is absolutely remarkable, a combination that left the city an exceptional outlier among America’s major urban centers.

    Put another way, if America’s other cities with large black populations had somehow managed to achieve the same surprisingly low crime rates as New York City then most of the high racial crime correlations that have been the central findings of this article would disappear. Conversely, if New York City were excluded from our current national statistics, many of the existing racial crime correlations would exceed 0.90. These are objective facts and well-intentioned analysts who sharply criticize New York City policing methods should recognize that they may face some unpalatable choices.

    Perhaps further research would establish that the widely-lauded elements of local police practice are the ones primarily responsible for such results, and the more controversial methods may safely be eliminated without negative consequences. But for whatever combination of reasons, the overall results achieved by New York City have been quite remarkable and caution should be exercised before drastic changes are made in such a successful model.

    Obviously New York City is not the sole positive outlier on these crime statistics, though it is by far the most significant, both because of its size and the magnitude of its deviation from the predicted results. If we examine the 2011 homicide rates for our set of sixty-six large cities, seventeen of these were at least 30% below the projected trendline, with four cities—Charlotte, Raleigh, St. Paul, and Virginia Beach—achieving even better results than New York City. But many of these successful cities have numerically small black populations, and the total for all seventeen combined is not much larger that of New York City alone. One intriguing fact is that although fewer than one-third of the all our large cities lie in the South, these Southern cities account for over two-thirds of those particularly successful examples, and a roughly similar pattern applies both for other crime rates and for other recent years. The exact mix of cultural, socio-economic, or demographic factors responsible for such notable Southern success in achieving relatively low urban crime rates is unclear, but might warrant further investigation.

    Scatterplot-Robbery2011

    Over the last decade or two, liberal intellectuals have regularly denounced their conservative opponents for allowing ideological considerations to trump objective facts, sometimes styling themselves the “Reality-Based Community” as an ironic riposte to the foolish criticism of a top Bush Administration official. Many of these liberal accusations have considerable merit. But individuals who claim to accept reality undercut their credibility if they pick and choose which portions of reality they acknowledge and which portions they carefully ignore. Our academic and media elites should not avoid factual evidence that they dislike.

    Consider that over one-quarter of all the urban black males in America have vanished from our society, a loss-ratio approaching that experienced by Europeans during the Black Death of the Middle Ages. Yet these astonishing statistics have largely remained unreported by our major media and hence unrecognized by the general American public. Should the medieval scribes of the Fourteenth Century have ignored the annihilating impact of the bubonic plague all around them and merely confined their writings to more pleasant news?

    It is said that very young children sometimes believe they can hide themselves by covering their eyes, and that seems to be the general approach taken by our major media to the unpleasantly grim racial crime statistics analyzed in this article. But the reality continues to exist whether or not we ignore it.

    (Republished from RonUnz.org by permission of author or representative)
     
    The Hispanic Crime Series
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    1. JI says:

      I found the correlation between whites-voting-Republican and race interesting. It seems to me that those whites who have lived around lots of blacks, who would be likely to know and understand the black culture, are most likely to vote Republican, while those whites who have never lived with blacks vote Democrat. I wonder why that would be.

    2. Dan says:

      The graphs indicate that Hispanics’ crime rates have dipped below that of whites. Is this true. What data source shows this?

      • Replies: @Stephen W
      , @Kraemer
    3. IT might be that the reason for the South’s relatively low urban black crime rate is that Charlotte North Carolina is where NYC’s modern policing began and, according to many, later became a national model (see 60 minutes report):

      “Reuben Greenberg told his cops that their job was not to punish (that was up to the courts), but to make arrests, and in order to do that they had to be on good terms with the citizens. So he put his cops out on the streets, not in cars. They walked, rode bicycles and horses, and were accessible to “normal people,”
      “He also required that every cop earn a bachelor’s degree, whereas when he arrived at the department not all had even graduated from high school. He added a K-9 bomb and drug-sniffing unit, a harbor patrol, and a crime lab to the police department. He had a team of officers remove graffiti the moment it appeared, sending a message that the city belonged to the police, not the vandals.
      “It worked, and Greenberg became a media celebrity. The Los Angeles Times headlined its profile, “A Black, Jewish, Roller-Skating Cop Brings A New Way to Fight Crime to the Old South.”
      “Charleston’s population increased 64% during the time Greenberg was chief, while crime decreased 11 percent.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reuben_Greenberg

    4. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

      Show me a neighborhood where blacks move in and the crime rate goes down.

      • Agree: RadicalCenter
    5. So sad that such an article is necessary! We all know, blacks included, that blacks are inclined towards anti-social behavior and crime.

      It may some day be necessary to put all male blacks in concentration camps for reeducation, if that is possible, the reeducation I mean. Look at black crime in South Africa. You cannot tell me that blacks are not criminally inclined. The reason, whether sociological, genetic, or what, I do not know. But when being prudent on a dark street I do not ask the reason I should get out of there. When I got my drivers license in NY City my dad told me never to drive on 125th Street at night. I often disobeyed him, but not about that!!! I knew he knew.

    6. It’s very odd, at first glance, that Hispanic crimes rates have dropped at exactly the same time that white crime rates have soared. It’s doubly odd because the average age of the Hispanic population is so young (and crime is a young persons game) while the average age of the white population is increasing.

      But you don’t have to search very far to find the explanation. Most crime commited by Hispanics is now attributed to “whites”. Have a look at this “white” criminal on the Texas Most Wanted list.

      http://www.dps.texas.gov/Texas10MostWanted/fugitiveDetails.aspx?id=156

      • Agree: RadicalCenter
      • Replies: @Gleongelpi
    7. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

      Perhaps the reason liberals fail to make any progress on gun control policy is that they ignore the best evidence for its arguments: black crime. In ignoring black crime, they exaggerate “white crime” — and whites must find this infuriating and antagonizing. It’s no wonder they refuse to give up their guns.

      If liberals started to argue that gun control is needed to curb the high rate of black crime, then i would bet that they would win many more blue collar whites to their cause. But they wont’ do this because criticizing blacks is counter productive to their more important goal :racial polarization.

      If you asked your average liberal, he would tell you that black crime is a myth. If this is so, then who is committing all the crime in America? “White people!,” he will say. Indeed, liberals must believe that American’s high crime rate is predominately due to whites — because blacks certainly aren’t contributing to it, to think so it a myth!

      • Replies: @Wally
    8. Avalanche says:

      “If liberals started to argue that gun control is needed to curb the high rate of black crime, then I would bet that they would win many more blue collar whites to their cause.”

      That’s a truly stupid suggestion! We need our guns to protect ourselves against black attackers! The “polar bear game” is not “played” against us with guns — but we sure need guns to protect ourselves against black attackers! Black rapists don’t all use guns, but we sure need guns to protect ourselves against black attackers! Even if some magic were possible, and you liberal idiots managed to get guns away from black criminals — we’d STILL need our guns to protect ourselves against blacks attackers! The problem is NOT the guns!!

      Sheesh!

      • Replies: @Bookish1
    9. For the immigrant category there is a strong source of reverse causality. Immigrants choose (to a greater extent than domestics) which city to live in, and they might migrate more heavily toward low-crime cities if all else is equal. So the correlation should not be interpreted as causation, it could be partly or entirely reverse causation.

    10. http://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_ethnicity.jsp

      “Hispanics” are 34% of the inmate population in the US and only 17% of the total population.

      I read that you consider any one who continues to object to your Hispanic Crime=White Crime thesis as “blockheads”. Care to explain to the audience how the above statistic does not mean Hispanics are over represented in terms of criminality?

      • Replies: @Ron Unz
    11. Ron Unz says:
      @Demosthenes

      Hey Blockhead,

      Did you ever consider actually reading my lengthy original article on the subject, which discusses those issues in detail and to which I’d linked in the column to which you’re referring?

      https://www.unz.com/article/the-myth-of-hispanic-crime/

      You might also consider reading the extensive series of my follow-up columns, responding to various objections from critics who actually bothered reading what I’d written:

      https://www.unz.com/topic/hispanic-crime/?ItemOrder=ASC

      Given that the total probably runs to something over 30,000 words, I think I’ll just you the links rather than inserting it all as a single comment.

    12. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

      Ron,

      Vox Day disputes your conclusion based on his own analysis of firearms homicide rates. I think that an exchange between the two of you on this subject would be fruitful and illuminating. Link to Vox’s article for your review.

      http://voxday.blogspot.com/2014/08/an-erroneous-conclusion-re-crime.html

      Personally, I find his general conclusion that foreigners commit crimes at rates similar to the rates in their countries of origin plausible and intuitive.

      • Replies: @PetrOldSack
    13. Clyde says:

      When looking at how the Hispanic population correlates to the crime rate, how did you control for the make-up of the non-Hispanic popultion? Or did you?

      I ask, because I would a assume that a city with 50% white and 50% black residents would have a higher crime rate than one with 50% white and 50% Hispanic. 40% white, 20% black, and 40% Hispanic would be higher than 35% white, 15% black, and 50% Hispanic.

      I’m skeptical that simply running a correlation for each group really tells you anything, because make-up of the remaining non-(white, black, or Hispanic) could vary considerably.

      In particular, cities with large white and black or large white and Hispanic populations are more common than large Hispanic and black popultions. Whites would end up “correlating” with the extremely high crime of blacks more often than Hispanics would, inflating the white crime rate correlation considerably.

    14. Clyde says:

      Here’s a quickie simplified example of what I’m thinking:

      First, let’s give each race (Hispanica aren’t a race, blah, blah) a Crime Rate Value:
      White 2
      Hispanic 4
      Black 10
      Meaning the Hispanic crime rate is 2x the white rate, and the black crime rate 5x the white rate.

      Then, for every 10% of the population, a CRV point is “awarded.” We’ll use six cities, named A through F.
      Demographics as follows, with CRV points in parantheses:
      City A: white 30% (6), Hispanic 10% (4), black 60% (60); total CRV points 70
      City B: white 70% (14), Hispanic 0% (0), black 30% (30); total CRV points 44
      City C: white 70% (14), Hispanic 30% (12), black 0% (0); total CRV points 26
      City D: white 30% (6), Hispanic 60% (24), black 10% (10); total CRV points 40
      City E: white 50% (10), Hispanic 50% (20), black 0% (0); total CRV points 30
      City F: white 50% (10), Hispanic 0% (4), black 50% (50); total CRV points 60

      Ordered highest to lowest, with each race’s corresponding percentage of the population:
      City A: white 30%, Hispanic 10%, black 60%
      City F: white 50%, Hispanic 0%, black 50%
      City B: white 70%, Hispanic 0%, black 30%
      City D: white 30%, Hispanic 60%, black 10%
      City E: white 50%, Hispanic 50%, black 0%
      City C: white 70%, Hispanic 30%, black 0%

      With this data, the result would be blacks correlate positvely to crime rate, whites are neutral, and Hispanics correlate nagatively. But in reality, whites correlate to blacks more strongly than Hispanics do, and pick up a correlation to their crime rate.

      • Replies: @Greskault
    15. Clyde says:

      Unz,

      If you are simply looking at each demographic’s correlation to crime rates, your methodology is flawed and produces unreliable results. From the first 20 cities in population size, the pattern I suspected is showing: whites correlate to blacks (and the massive crime rates) much more strongly than Hispanics do. Your white and Hispanic correlations to crime rates are really just correlations to blacks.

      Why not just get “white” crime rate by city, and compare to the percentage of “whites” who are Hispanic? Simpler, straightforward, and much more accurate.

    16. Greskault says:
      @Clyde

      Clyde,

      Why don’t you calculate the correlation on your example?

      Here is what I have.
      White population percentage correlation with Total CRV: -0.523
      Hispanic: -0.619
      Black: 0.981

      Indeed, in your hypothetically example, the more criminal Hispanics (wrt Whites) will have negative correlation to crime. However, I will caution that even though your example is constructed in such a way to make Ron’s method fail, the criminality of each group can be (roughly) found by performing multiple linear regression. My results:
      Calculated White CRV per 10%: 2.38, error 3.69
      Hispanic: 4.38, error 3.69
      Black: 10.4, error 3.69
      The fitting errors are large because of the nature of your example and the small number data points.

      Note that linear regression of crime rate with racial population makeup is what La Griffe du Lion performed on Hispanic criminality (http://www.lagriffedulion.f2s.com/hispanic.htm), and his analysis resulted in Hispanic criminality being very similar to that of Whites. This conclusion mirrors the conclusion of Ron’s earlier, more extensive analysis (https://www.unz.com/article/the-myth-of-hispanic-crime/).

    17. Clyde says:

      That is interesting that you got fairly close to my numbers – lends a little more credibility to Griffe’s work (I still say Unz’s is flawed; correlations vs. causation). However, while Unz and Griffe got numbers in the same ballpark, it’s important to note that Unz has the Hispanic crime rate below that of whites, while Griffe has it higher.

      That leads me to another concern – the high probability of under reporting of crime in both black and Hispanic communities due to mistrust of authorities. I don’t know how much this can be proven, and I realize it opens me to accusations of simply refusing to believe anything other than Hispanics having a higher crime rate, but you’ve got to admit it’s a legitimate concern with taking the official stats at face value.

      But there is one piece of data that gives us a clue, because there’s one crime that can rarely go unreported: homicide. The Hispanic homicide victimization rate is much higher than that for whites. Considering that homicides tend to be intraracial, it’s a fair assumption that Hispanics have a much higher homicide rate than whites. There’s really no way to make the numbers add up other wise. For blacks, we have good numbers on victims and offenders. Hispanics are mostly lumped in with whites, but we can get the victimization numbers. So, either the Hispanic homicide rate is much higher than whites, or whites are killing a lot of Hispanics. Accepting that the Hispanic homicide rate is higher than the white rate, you’d have to believe that the rates for other crimes are lower – rather farfetched.

      And that’s what it comes down to for me – sometimes a little bit of data and common sense are more valuable than statistical analysis intended to infer, estimate, or correlate. We’ll see in September when the 2013 UCR comes out, with Hispanics separated out from whites for the first time. I’ll come back and eat crow if I’m wrong.

    18. greskault says:

      I still say Unz’s is flawed; correlations vs. causation

      There is no “versus” here, and certainly not in the way you mean it. Correlation coefficient is a metric with which to infer one thing from something else.

      Using correlation coefficient can be flawed depending on the data. However, this article was not published in vacuum. Ron acknowledged La Griffe’s analysis in previous short articles. Given the simplicity of this method, it is appropriate to use it in an article meant to reach the masses. (As simple as linear regression is, how many people can follow it?)

      However, while Unz and Griffe got numbers in the same ballpark, it’s important to note that Unz has the Hispanic crime rate below that of whites, while Griffe has it higher.

      Griffe calculated the crime rate; Unz calculated the correlation coefficient. They cannot be compared. Unz also did not plot the errors/uncertainty of each correlation coefficient. I expect that there is significant overlap between Whites and Hispanics.

      Furthermore, Griffe found that Hispanic violent crime rate is <15% greater than White crime rate. This is far from the factor of 2 or 3 (or more) that pundits throw out.

      But there is one piece of data that gives us a clue, because there’s one crime that can rarely go unreported: homicide.

      Unz wrote the exact same thing in The Myth of Hispanic Crime.

      The Hispanic homicide victimization rate is much higher than that for whites.

      Data and methodology please.

      It must be emphasized that the advantage of the multiple linear regression method of calculating criminality is that it requires no assumption whatsoever about the relationship between the victim and criminal.

    19. Clyde says:

      Unz’s goal appears to be for the reader to assume his data represents crime rates. I say this based on the misleading titles of his charts. His charts don’t represent crime rates (as titled), they represent correlations to crime rates. I’m skeptical of this being an honest mistake; and I’ll assume dishonesty on the part of anyone who defends the choice. I have 700 level stat coursework under my belt; although I don’t use it and am admittedly rusty. One thing I know, however, is statistical models can ALWAYS be flawed, can always miss something. Unz’s model clearly has a problem in that more Hispanics = fewer blacks = lower crime; I’m not sure if Griffe’s model could also have this issue (your post above would indicate not) or something else.

      As for Hispanic homicide victimization rates, I don’t have anything bookmarked. But I can recommend a wonderful new search engine called google with which you can find it. City data, various gun crime studies, even Hispanic activist groups all show the same thing.

      Again, we’ll find out next month. If I’m wrong I’ll make it a point to come back and admit it.

    20. Clyde says:

      Come to think of it, there’s a second piece of data that calls Griffe’s crime rate, and Unz’s implied crime rate, work into question: the extremely high (much higher than whites) Hispanic participation in gang activity. Again, I don’t have any info bookmarked, so you’ll have to look it up.

      So, we have to verifiable facts (which you will concede upon a few minutes of research):
      1. The Hispanic homicide victimization rate is much higher than that of whites. From this fact we can conclude that the Hispanic homicide rate is much higher, due to the intraracial nature of homicide as well as the available data on black and white homicides. Otherwise you must conclude that whites are responsible for a large share of Hispanic homicide victims – something far more unlikely than Griffe and Unz’s statistical models simply being wrong.*
      2. Hispanic gang participation and activity is much higher than that for whites.

      Given the above two facts, it is simply ludicrous to conclude that Hispanic crime rates are comparable to those of whites.

      Again, a little bit of data and some common sense often beats a statistical model.

      *Technically, Unz’s model is probably correct; it’s just misleading. While Hispanics may correlate to low crime, it is likely for the reason I’ve stated. After establishing correlation levels, the next question should be – so what; why?

    21. greskault says:

      [I am reposting this since my previous submission was “marked as spam”.]

      One thing I know, however, is statistical models can ALWAYS be flawed, can always miss something.

      Of course, and there are infinite number of ways to analyze the same data. For example, there are data that are deliberately excluded because of some (hopefully not arbitrary) rule that the analyzer uses. At some point, people just have to either accept or deny the results.

      I’m not sure if Griffe’s model could also have this issue (your post above would indicate not) or something else.

      I make no such indication, and there are problems with this particular model of multiple linear regression as well. For example, it assumes that the same ethnic group is as criminal in one region of the country as another. This is likely false as Unz have shown that the incarceration rates of Whites vary around the country. However, it is one useable method that has its place in a larger family of analyses.

      As for Hispanic homicide victimization rates, I don’t have anything bookmarked. But I can recommend a wonderful new search engine called google with which you can find it. City data, various gun crime studies, even Hispanic activist groups all show the same thing.

      In other words, you’re too lazy to support your claim.

      I, on the other hand, have just recently performed criminality analysis using the similar methods as Unz and La Griffe, spurred on by this discussion. I used the violent crime and homicide report from FBI for 2012 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s.-2012/resource-pages/download-printable-files). and the demographic percentages from US Census for 2010 (http://www.census.gov/). I restrict to cities with population >250k and >500k.

      As an example on how the available data can be less than ideal, I disclose that I had to remove the cities Mobile (AL) and Las Vegas (NV) because of the large mismatches in reported population between FBI and Census. My analysis will restrict solely to cities where these Whites, Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians make up >95%. Thus, I also removed the cities of Anchorage (AK), Oklahoma City (OK) and Tulsa (OK). I also don’t include Honolulu because it’s not available in FBI data.

      I analyze the crime rates for violent crimes and homicide (a subset of violent crimes). For some reason, the FBI data for Chicago (IL) does not contain rape (also subset of violent crimes), so the violent crimes rate analyses was done without Chicago. For the homicide rates analyses, I performed once with Chicago included and another without, but the results are not that different, so I will just present the homicide results with Chicago included.

      Now for the results. First, we look at crime rates for each group using multiple linear regression.

      Cities >250k, Violent Crime Rates Per 1000
      White: 0.708, 1.60 error
      Black: 20.0, 1.33 error
      Hispanic: 5.30, 1.02 error
      Asian: -2.47, 3.46 error

      Cities >500k, Violent Crime Rates Per 1000
      White: 0.241, 2.28 error
      Black: 19.8, 1.67 error
      Hispanic: 4.89, 1.27 error
      Asian: -1.66, 4.43 error

      Cities >250k, Homicide Rates Per 100,000
      White: -11.6, 4.89 error
      Black: 38.6, 3.90 error
      Hispanic: 11.5, 3.11 error
      Asian: -24.0, 10.21 error

      Cities >500k, Homicide Rates Per 100,000
      White: -15.7, 8.13 error
      Black: 37.7, 5.69 error
      Hispanic: 11.7, 4.52 error
      Asian: -17.5, 15.26 error

      Discussion: The extracted per capita crime rates for Blacks and Hispanics in cities larger than 500k are similar to La Griffe’s for the year 2009 and 2010. My rates for Asians are essentially noise, just like La Griffe’s. However, my calculated rates for Whites are also noise, which is very different than La Griffe’s. This can be a point of contention on the validity of this analysis, the analyses of La Griffe, or just this type of analysis in general. It would be best if various other people perform the same methodology on either the same years or different years, perhaps with different software, in order to nail down more accurate results.

      The same discussion applies to homicide rates.

      Now I analyze the same data by calculating their correlation.

      Cities >250k, Correlation Coefficient Between Race/Ethnicity Percentage and Violent Crimes
      White: -0.2737, 0.02395 significance
      Black: 0.2442, 0.04474 sig.
      Hispanic: 0.0274, 0.8246 sig.
      Asian: 0.0346, 0.7795 sig.

      Cities >500k, Correlation Coefficient Between Race/Ethnicity Percentage and Violent Crimes
      White: -0.2984, 0.10928 sig.
      Black: 0.2533, 0.17676 sig.
      Hispanic: -0.0155, 0.93531 sig.
      Asian: 0.0321, 0.86616 sig.

      Cities >250k, Correlation Coefficient Between Race/Ethnicity Percentage and Homicide
      White: -0.4165, 4.11E-04 sig.
      Black: 0.5201, 5.47E-06 sig.
      Hispanic: -0.0623, 0.614 sig.
      Asian: -0.0713, 0.563 sig.

      Cities >500k, Correlation Coefficient Between Race/Ethnicity Percentage and Homicide
      White: -0.5032, 4.59E-03 sig.
      Black: 0.5426, 1.95E-03 sig.
      Hispanic: -0.1150, 0.545 sig.
      Asian: -0.0789, 0.679 sig.
      Discussion: Whites are negatively correlated, and Blacks are positively correlated, just like Unz’s analysis. It’s safe to assume that the values for Asian are just noise. However, the Hispanic value is also noisy. Overall, it appears that the Correlation Coefficient method is not good for estimating Hispanic criminality, at least for this set of data.
      Overall discussion: Presumably high quality data from FBI, US Census, and other places like Prison statistics exists for reported crimes and demographics. Different methods can and will yield different results because the methods are all imperfect. Furthermore, all Hispanics are lumped together as one group even though the racial makeup (and hence criminality) of various Hispanics groups can vary a lot. In addition, because of geographical variance in group behavior, there’s a chance that even contradictory conclusions from different analyses agree with the local realities of their authors. As an example, heavily Hispanic cities such as Santa Ana (78% Hispanic) and El Paso (81%) have low violent crime and homicide rates (direct division with total population). However, the realities of two cities hardly set the rule.

    22. Wade says:

      @26

      Another confounding factor at which you hinted is the different racial make-up of various “Hispanic” groups. I recall reading that Puerto Ricans and Dominicans have higher crime rates than other Hispanics, and unsurprisingly both Puerto Ricans and Dominicans have significantly higher percentages of sub-Saharan African ancestry.

      I think I also read that South American immigrants in the U.S. (Colombians, Peruvians, Chileans, Venezuelans, etc.) have the lowest crime rates among Hispanics, but these immigrants are a more selected bunch and tend to arrive with better educational credentials.

    23. Anon • Disclaimer says:

      It would be interesting to see if there are threshold effects. Look as rising black (or any) population change in a given local.
      – Does the crime rate go non-linear at a certain point?
      – Does the rate of change for all demographic groups change abruptly, i.e. White flight, at a certain point?

    24. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

      Minorities such as the Hispanic and Black population in the US due to discrimination occupy more of the lower level positions in the in the work field than whites. These positions usually require a lot of effort for little return. I do not find it surprising that the similar proportions would be represented in the area of crime. While the white population has a very high representation in the lucrative white collar crime field where with little effort and with almost no fear of prosecution (to big to fail, or just pay a couple of billions in fines) they steal billions and trillions of dollars with a click on the computer button. Due to lack of opportunity in the white collar crime field minorities are more prominent in the lower level crimes, that require more effort, involves personal danger and has a very low return. For the argument that here we are only considering violent crime, please note that the difference between a minority robber who breaks into your house and steals some of your belongings, versus the white banker who through fraudulent practices steals your house, and trows you and your family on the street is that if caught the robber goes to jail and becomes a statistic in your analysis, while the white banker if caught just pays a fine. What about homicide? Can a minority criminal plead that the murder was just a collateral damage while he was trying to bring democracy to the victim? Under the same pretexts the white western ruling powers have looted countries and killed untold millions, again with no danger to themselves since they make the minorities and the poor whites do the fighting for them. The more people are killed the more medals they give to the ones doing the fighting while they count their profits. Your analysis reflects the complaint of the upper white class that the petty crimes committed by minorities interferes with their peaceful enjoyment of the fruits of their large scale crimes.

      • Replies: @Anonymous
      , @Corrupt
    25. There’s a funny paradox here. You said that you originally took out the results on black crime, because it would distract attention from the sensational hispanic crime observation. But now that they’re put together, for anybody who’s looked at the subject halfway seriously, it’s the hispanic crime result that distracts sensation from the well-known black crime observation! The discussion of hispanic to black replacement is very interesting, though.

    26. “Interestingly enough, for most of the last decade the presence of Hispanics and immigrants has become noticeably less associated with crime than the presence of whites, although that latter category obviously exhibits large regional heterogeneity.” What’s amazing is that Hispanics have such high “association” with crime when they have such smaller population than whites. Here in L.A. that “noticeably smaller” association compared to whites is switched and multiplied a few times. I guess we were one of the cities left out of your Hispanic-boosting “statistics”.

    27. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
      @Anonymous

      Excusing violent black crime with white financial crime would be like using Obama’s crimes to excuse white financial crime (Obama is black).

    28. I’m surprised that Unz would write such a detailed analysis while being so uninformed about what has already been done in the field. There is already plenty of research that has shown the racial disparities in various social problems disappear when poverty and economic class are controlled for.

    29. Obviously New York City is not the sole positive outlier on these crime statistics, though it is by far the most significant, both because of its size and the magnitude of its deviation from the predicted results. If we examine the 2011 homicide rates for our set of sixty-six large cities, seventeen of these were at least 30% below the projected trendline, with four cities—Charlotte, Raleigh, St. Paul, and Virginia Beach—achieving even better results than New York City. But many of these successful cities have numerically small black populations, and the total for all seventeen combined is not much larger that of New York City alone. One intriguing fact is that although fewer than one-third of the all our large cities lie in the South, these Southern cities account for over two-thirds of those particularly successful examples, and a roughly similar pattern applies both for other crime rates and for other recent years. The exact mix of cultural, socio-economic, or demographic factors responsible for such notable Southern success in achieving relatively low urban crime rates is unclear, but might warrant further investigation.

      Might white ethnic self-confidence be the determining factor here? I would argue that the whites with the most ethnic self-confidence are

      1. Southerners
      2. New York Jews/Italians/Irish

      It’s reasonable to surmise that, at the margins, black criminals factor in the intensity of white backlash when planning a criminal attack. Maybe they think a bit harder about it in the South than the Midwest or West Coast?

      • Replies: @Anonymous
      , @Nico
    30. Stephen W says:
      @Dan

      The way the Hispanic rate dips while the white rate rises at the same time suggests more Hispanic crime is getting lumped in with the white crime. I think his methods are underestimating the Hispanic population because they are increasingly undocumented as they are there illegally.

      • Replies: @Anonymous
    31. @Rudy Weitz

      The southern cities have higher crime than Latino cities like El Paso and Santa Ana and Anaheim because they have more blacks than Latinos. Also, New Mexico has a lower crime rate than North Carolina and all of the south. yet, we have are pro-south folks don’t mention that crime is always high in black towns and low in white towns and Latin and Asian Towns. None of North Carolina’s cities make the safest city list but Irvine, Mission Viejo and Lake Forest in Orange County do because blacks are only 1 percent. Stop the pro south talk and mention that many all white or almost all white states have lower crime and they are not all liberal. Utah, Id, Wymong, Nebreask, North Dakota and South Daktoa.

    32. Just looked it up Charlotte has a very high crime rate. Violent Crime at 378 while US average is only 266 and Anaheim at 206. Charlotte is over 30 percent black while Anaheim is only 2 percent black. Charlotte is about 13 percent Latino while Anaheim is about 54 percent Latino. Charlotte is about 2 to 3 percent Asian while Anaheim is about 15 percent. This proves that a lot of southern cities with blacks have high crime rates versus non-southern cities with low black populations. I just looked up murders in Charlotte and got the crime stats same goes for Anaheim. This is 2012 which is pretty current. in fact I never understood why its only whites moved to the South here. There are cheaper places like Arizona which has Latinos but less blacks than Texas. In fact with the oil boom both Houston and Dallas housing is very closed to rents and housing in Phoneix and Tucson. Also, the colder states are not all liberal there are Id, Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Kansas which does have some blacks, Nebraska or Utah. Maybe its the cold or Mormonism that bothers you.

    33. “I moved back to Palo Alto from New York City in 1992, and that year East Palo Alto recorded America’s highest per capita murder rate”

      Iin 1989 I visited a friend in the area who worked in a public hospital’s emergency room. She told me that when citizens of East Palo Alto reported gunfire, the police wouldn’t go in until the firing had stopped. She also had gruesome stories of the torture wounds that some people arrived with – inflicted by gangs.

    34. @Benjamin David Steele

      “There is already plenty of research that has shown the racial disparities in various social problems disappear when poverty and economic class are controlled for.”

      Perhaps you’d care to link to those you consider most authoritative ?

      • Replies: @Benjamin David Steele
    35. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

      Ron Unz, another anti-White racist jew lamenting the loss of African-American males, and the fact that fewer evil White Christians won’t be violently victimized by the Jews’ pet Africans.

      To any Whites who read this blog: You need to look up jewish Ron Unz’ past anti-White track record. Despite his “conservative” veneer, he is a typical inbred Talmud jewtard who is deeply opposed to Whites and White societies.

    36. @Ron Unz

      Why bother reading your articles, when your track record of anti-White hatred and attempts to undermine your White Christian host societies speaks for itself?

      • Agree: Thomm
    37. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

      Translation: “I’m a Talmudid fake khazarian “jew” named Ron Unz, and I’m deeply committed to destroying the societies of my White Christian hosts, as my religion commands me to do. Toward that end, I took a wild guess at how many hispanics vs Whites are in the FBI statistics, and falsely attributed thousands of hispanic crimes to Whites. I also conveniently ignored the fact that Central and South American nations have the highest violent crime rates on the planet. Hopefully my fake disinfo will be taken up by other jewish media outlets, and used as a rationale to flood more White communities with violent hispanics gangs, and oh, btw, my IQ is 210, lol. You can tell by all the fancy graphs and charts I used to fudge my data”

    38. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
      @Honorary Thief

      Khazarian fake “jews” are not White, but thanks for trying.

    39. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
      @Benjamin David Steele

      [“Sockpuppetry”—adopting a series of different handles to mask one’s identity—is a very serious offense on this website and will result in summary trashing of all future comments if it continues. Also, it’s improper to publish numerous, successive comments on the same subject; instead, they should be combined into one or more more comprehensive comments]

      Yeah, “studies” done by Talmudic Khazarian fake “jews” like yourself who are intent on flooding White societies with their enemies. Similar to the “studies” that prove “climate change”, lol.

    40. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

      There are no indicators of crime better than race compostion
      esnap.net/murder_rate_estimator.htm

    41. conatus says:

      Yeah good column, a lot of unfashionable trend articulation. Regarding the falling crime rate in DC, I would say Steve Sailer’s idea of the end of the crack wars would contribute some to the failing crime rate. I lived in N.E.D.C. for over twenty years and moved in ’93. The murder rate was in the 400s in the late eighties and early nineties which was why we fled. Then it went way down because all the crack dealing bad asses were dead or in wheel chairs in public housing.
      The turf war was over. The murder rate went down to 100.
      Number wise I don’t think it was about Hispanics displacing Blacks as much as it was about Blacks moving from a too expensive city. From 19990 to 2010 the population of DC was about 600,000. In 1990 Hispanics were 5% and then went to 9% in 2010. During the same time period the black population of DC went from 65% to 50%. I think the brothas all moved to close in PG county because developers were coming in and buying entire blocks and putting up apartment buildings for Ivy Leaguers to live in.
      Particularly for DC, 9/11 was a boon for the real estate salesman because DC became extremely cop heavy after the 9/11 scare. In the other wards, housing prices went up in a more highly patrolled city, the Ivy Leagues moved in. DC became Panem,( I think it refers to ‘bread and circuses’ in Latin), the capitol city in the movie the Hunger Games, full of nice well fed YTs with Starbucks coffee cups glued to their left hand. Yeah now it is 50% White and from my point of view from 1971…unrecognizable.

    42. Jeff77450 says:
      @JI

      Oh I think you know.

    43. Ron – I think these statistics tell something quite different from your thesis, namely that Hispanic perpetrators were identified as whites beginning in the Clinton era 90’s (coincident with NAFTA and mass immigration). I can’t otherwise imagine a genetic or selection basis for the shift from 1993 to the present. White crime rate up while Hispanic trends downward at nearly equivalent mirror images of the other (along the x axis).

      It looks like a gradual recategorization as police forces came to use “white hispanic” or simply “white” for perpetrators (but not victims) of violent crime. See the Texas most wanted list as a simple example. Until this confounding issue is resolved you can’t make solid claims about Hispanic vs white crime rates. Or look to the pre-1993 data when people were classified logically (minus the “white hispanic” conflation).

      • Replies: @Ron Unz
    44. Ron Unz says:
      @Antonymous

      No, your suggestion is entirely incorrect.

      Nowhere in my analysis do I bother using the police categorization of criminal perpetrators, for exactly the reason you cite, and I actually emphasize that point. Instead, all the ethnic data is *solely* based upon the census reporting for the individual cities in question, which has absolutely nothing to do with whether the police classify particular criminals as Hispanic or “white.”

      I’m sorry to be so terse, but you clearly haven’t bothered carefully reading my article. You also might want to consider reading my closely related Hispanic Crime article, which makes this point in even greater detail.

      • Replies: @Antonymous
    45. @Ron Unz

      Admittedly you’re correct about my skim reading, but two issues remain:

      (1) I don’t see the mirror image issue addressed in your papers. What would you say accounts for the mirror image of white crime increase and hispanic crime decrease? It appears to be an artifact of some sort. (2) How do you account for illegal residents who may not be reflected in the census numbers? If the estimates of 11-35 million are to be believed, this could dramatically affect your results.

      If the illegal fraction committed crimes that were unaccounted for by census data, wouldn’t the (white) majority population take the fall for it so to speak? Might this explain the apparent increase in white crime at the same time illegal immigration has expanded?

      • Replies: @Ron Unz
    46. Ron Unz says:
      @Antonymous

      No, that’s not correct either. If the true number of Hispanics were actually much larger than the government claims (i.e. many more illegals), then the true Hispanic crime *rate* would actually be much *lower*, since crime rate = number of crimes / population.

      However, if you read the article carefully, you’ll see that I never claim that the Hispanic crime rate has been going down over time or that the white crime rate has been going up. The (lowish) crime correlations displayed in the charts are *not* “crime rates.”

      Why don’t you go through and read the article more carefully and also do the same with my earlier Hispanic Crime article, then come back to me with further questions if you’d like:

      https://www.unz.com/article/the-myth-of-hispanic-crime/

    47. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

      Institutional Failure or Societal Success?

      Ferguson Missouri is now famous. Since the shooting of Michael Brown in 2014 and the ensuing riots last year and now this summer it is a metaphor for what is wrong with race relations, policing, and racial strife in America. Clearly something has gone wrong. So the typical response of the pundits and media, along with elected officials is that the system has failed us. We need to tweak the system. What that means of course is more government resources (money) being thrown at the problem. There is no chance for these same failed policies of government intervention over the last 30 years to suceed. Ferguson will continue to fail.

      Consider the statistics of Ferguson a city of 21,000 with a majority black population near a big city – St. Louis. It is a violent place. 1 of every 1,000 residents is murdered each year.

      The reasons why Ferguson is in such a mess are not simple, and the solutions are clearly difficult. And, yes there are bad cops in Ferguson who don’t live there, are primarily white and have done much to alienate the black community. But crime like a flower grows from its roots. The bad apples on the streets of Ferguson come from bad beginnings, and there are no institutions capable of changing that fact.

      Meanwhile in Aurora Illinois a suburb of Chicago with 200,000 residents, of whom 11% are African American, they clearly do not have a problem with their police force. Aurora has a larger population of African Americans than Ferguson. In Aurora in the 1980’s there were up to 30 murders a year, while in 2012 there were zero. Imagine that, 22,000 blacks in a large urban city without one black on black murder. Neither did the police gun down anyone for no reason. Years ago Aurora received help from the FBI to eliminate gangs, but surely something else is at play. Aurora is not a safe city by any means. It is still ranked as the 22nd most dangerous city in the state. But cops killing blacks is a non issue.

      Just what the hell is going on? Can’t the government do something? Where are the Black Lives Matter protesters to congratulate the white cops! Because clearly Black lives do matter in Aurora. The fact is this is an example of societal success, where families and communities make their city function. It clearly proves that any town or city in America can become almost murder free, regardless of race.

      Yet are we to believe that there are no racists among the Aurora police force? Or that racism is not present in the town? Of course not. Aurora is in a state with a murder capital only miles away in Chicago. It has to deal with the same laws, both state and federal, the same types of administrative and funding issues, and all the other trappings of government. Sure, they may have a better and more responsive police force and maybe a bit more funding, but this clearly shows that government mandates and laws from Washington D.C. have no long term impact in providing any solutions or guidelines that affect lives on the street. Aurora is doing just fine without Obama or Al Sharpton for that matter.

      Here is the reality. Cops shoot and kill blacks where blacks shoot and kill blacks.

    48. @Anonymous Nephew

      “Perhaps you’d care to link to those you consider most authoritative ?”

      You could read one of hundreds of scholarly books on the topic. But I don’t spoonfeed info to people. I’ve found that people who want to know something tend to already know it or are able to easily find the necessary info. As for those that don’t want to know, all the information in the world won’t make a bit of difference.

      • Replies: @Colin Wright
    49. I would point out that the issue is a lot more complex than those on the political right like to admit, assuming they even understand.

      https://benjamindavidsteele.wordpress.com/2015/08/24/on-racialization-of-crime-and-violence/

      Many black populations in the early 1900s and late 1800s had extremely low rates of violent crime. They also had high rates of marriage, religiosity, etc. At the same time, many white populations had extremely high rates of violent crime.

      The black population didn’t fundamentally change. These are the same basic people with the same basic genetics and same basic culture. The only thing that changed over this past century were environmental factors, from mass urbanization to mass unemployment, from economic segregation in ghettoes to high rates of heavy metal toxity in black communities.

      Before anyone jumps to ideological conclusions, all of the data needs to be considered and explained. Ignoring inconvenient data isn’t helpful.

    50. It would be better to do regressions here than to use correlation coefficients, as I’ll explain. What the correlation coefficient measures is the correlation, which is the extent to which crime goes up when hispanic percentage goes up. High correlation means they move together. But, crucially, it doesn’t mean that changes in the hispanic population explain most crime changes.

      Let me use an example. Suppose that when crime increases in a city, the Armenian population for some reason also increases, though no city has more than 2% Armenian population. Crime would then be perfectly correlated with Armenian population, a correlation coefficient of 1. Yet Armenians can only be a tiny part of crime.

      On the other hand, suppose there are lots of things that cause crime to increase. Suppose in truth that when the black population rises 10%, crime rises by 20%, on average. The correlation coefficient could be tiny, because whereas black population has a big effect on crime, so many other things also affect crime that black population is an unreliable predictor for any one city.

      • Replies: @Ron Unz
    51. “Thus, replacing a city’s blacks with immigrants would tend to lower local crime rates by as much as 90%”
      So, where would these troublesome negros go ? To ruin a different town ?
      Would the crime rate be reduced, or just diluted ?

      • Replies: @nokangaroos
    52. We already have our own immigrant problem. It is the African-American.
      Brought here hundreds of years ago, and never assimilated.

    53. Can welfare blacks,who are born because their mothers are being paid to A)Watch Maury B)Drink dem fawties and C)Get knocked up at da club,be considered illegal.immigrants as they cross they mom’s vagina?

    54. Nico says:
      @Honorary Thief

      New York Jews/Italians/Irish

      Ehh, I would have named the Poles in place of the Irish. Don’t be fooled the number of yuppie SWPL Mc and O’ helicopter parents naming their children “Cormac,” “Aodh,” “Padraig,” “Birgit,” “Viona,” etc. in a desperate attempt to get back to their real or imagined urban exotic roots from the boring Anglo-assimilated white bread ‘burbs stifling their Celtic rage for the last two or three generations. About the best we can say is that Hipster Plastic Paddies at least make a go at being more AUTHENTIC Plastic Paddies.

    55. Well golly gee…violent crime rates are a lot higher in the black ghetto than in the white ‘burbs…go figure…

      I’m sure there’s a lot more black folks taking a dump on the street too…

      Maybe Mr. Unz can do a statistical analysis on that burning issue too…

      Hitler rounded up the Polish Jews and kept them in ghettos…they were probably taking more dumps on the street than the pleasant White Schutzstaffel guys in the neat uniforms…

      Okay enough irony for a bit…I’m a white guy and I’ve hung out in the most crime-ridden ‘hoods just out of curiosity (at night in case you’re wondering)…New Orleans…Detroit…South Side Chicago…Bronx…

      …lots of gangstas around sure…never bothered whitey…never felt threatened…hung out in people’s cribs in the projects…they actually invited me in…imagine that…

      Can you say that Mr. Unz?

      Maybe if you want to be a social scientist you might consider something called field work.

      Also challenge to all the Big Macho White Guys here…tell me about your travels in the ‘hood…

      • Replies: @The Grim Joker
    56. LL says:

      Unz,

      The real crime here is that you put 4 extremely important and objective articles into a single page. They need to be spread out more!

    57. What an amazing finding! The wealthy Americans promote Latino immigration in order to displace Blacks! And a quarter of Black men are gone! Incredible! A real discovery! Congratulations!

    58. @Benjamin David Steele

      Before anyone jumps to ideological conclusions, all of the data needs to be considered and explained..

      I’m not 100% sure of the precise molecular composition of the wall in my room. Should I go ahead and just assume it’s not there until all the data is accounted for?

      • Replies: @Benjamin David Steele
    59. @Negrolphin Pool

      I place more value on knowledge than ignorance. I’m crazy like that.

    60. utu says:

      “population-weighted cross-correlations”

      Not sure if I understand? Cross correlation of two sequences is a sequence not a number. What actually has been done?

    61. Wally says:
      @Rudy Weitz

      Ole Rube’s a Jew, hence the “media celebrity”.

      I smell another false news story.

      about wikipedia:

      ‘Zionist Wikipedia Editing Course’
      http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/139189

      “Some stories are true that never happened.”
      – Elie Wiesel

      • Replies: @Anon
    62. Wally says:
      @Anonymous

      Right. And I guess that’s why white liberals live as far away from blacks as possible.

    63. Anon • Disclaimer says:
      @Wally

      Jews never do good things?

    64. Anonymous [AKA "besserwisser"] says:

      Have you wondered why the homicide rate of all black Ghana with a population of 25 million is 1,7 and Cuba with a 50 per cent black population has a rate of 4,7 against a rate of 4,9 for the US where only 12 per cent of the population is black?
      It seems to me, the issue most be more complex than just race.

    65. @Anonymous

      “It seems to me, the issue most be more complex than just race.”

      More complex than just race in the biological sense, but there is also the ideological sense, as part of culture/nurture. Most blacks in America, though not limited to America, promote a genocidal racist ideology (which they project onto whites), and which, I contend, plays a huge role in black crime.

    66. JimB says:

      Unz omits the predator-prey relationship between non-white criminals and whites. Wherever whites cluster you will find concentrations of non-white criminals. It’s basically Sutton’s Law: when Willie Sutton was asked why he robbed banks, he said because that’s where the money is.

      • Replies: @Anonymous
    67. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
      @Stephen W

      Exactly. The way the two lines in every graph (inversely) mirror each-other even in smaller details strongly suggests that many “white” criminals are simply repainted Hispanics.

    68. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2008/07/american-murder-mystery/306872/

      “Falling crime rates have been one of the great American success stories of the past 15 years. New York and Los Angeles, once the twin capitals of violent crime, have calmed down significantly, as have most other big cities”

      “Lately, though, a new and unexpected pattern has emerged, taking criminologists by surprise. While crime rates in large cities stayed flat, homicide rates in many midsize cities (with populations of between 500,000 and 1 million) began increasing, sometimes by as much as 20percent a year”

      “It used to be the criminal element was more confined,” said Larry Godwin, the police chief. “Now it’s all spread out”

      “Betts had been evaluating the impact of one of the city government’s most ambitious initiatives: the demolition of the city’s public-housing projects, as part of a nationwide experiment to free the poor from the destructive effects of concentrated poverty. Memphis demolished its first project in 1997. The city gave former residents federal “Section8” rent-subsidy vouchers and encouraged them to move out to new neighborhoods”

      So little time, so many mysteries to solve.

    69. To be fair, Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) derived people should not be counted as being a white-European ethnic group, for obvious reasons.

      Crime statistics and other diversity-styled statistics should recognize that MENA-derived people are not white-European.

      MENA people should have their own government-recognized ethnic category.

      This idea is especially important with the large inflow of Arab Muslims entering the US.

    70. Z says:

      So, does this include illegal immigrant crime also.? Also, at this point just speculation as it is hard to find numbers on this for obvious reasons, but, i would think that crime could more underreported in certain communities that fear deportation.
      Illegal Immigrants.> http://www.gao.gov/assets/320/316959.pdf

    71. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
      @JimB

      There must be some quslifications to your generalisation. To start with just because of transport and access costs. But also based on simple fact. E.g. Palo Alto hardly attracts big clusters of black predators. Why not check your bright ideas before publishing?

    72. There is one factor that makes it very difficult to determine the actual criminality of Hispanics in particular when it comes to those who are hear illegally. Who came here for a job versus who came here as a member of a cartel. Authorities in many instances have a hard time distinguish between the two. Certainly, gang membership is generally very easy to assess but the better organized cartels prefer not to bring attention to themselves through display of tattoo s etc. If one could distinguish between the different sets of reasons why many Hispanic s are here, a considerable crime differential would be found.

    73. @Greenstalk

      Most Hispanics are white as much as you are. Hispanics can be white, black, Indian, Asian, mulatto, mestizo or multi–racial. In fact, many people with Hispanic last name only speak English.

      • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    74. conatus says:

      This is a good article with some nice charts that make things clearer for people like me.
      Mr. Unz mentions the National Crime Victimization Survey and I have never understood why it is not regarded as more dispositive than it is.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Crime_Victimization_Survey
      Performed by the Census of about 50 to 75K households, twice a year!
      That is a lot of households. And twice a year!
      What do you want in terms of randomly chosen objectivity?

      At any rate it has been going on for a while(1972) and the results are roughly the same, over and over.

      James Q. Wilson was a professor at Harvard for 25 years, and in the chapter on crime in his 2002 book “Beyond the Color Line” he makes the point that “Black men commit murders at a rate about eight times greater than that for white men.” This disparity is not new: it has existed for well over a century. When historian Roger Lane studied murder rates in Philadelphia he found that since 1839 the black rate has been much higher than the white rate.

      Are these statistical disparities the result of police bias? Do the police target more blacks and therefore arrest more blacks? Professor Wilson would say, no, they are not. Why? Because the more recent numbers are confirmed by the reports of victims, not police. Using the results of the National Crime Victimization Survey, which measures the response merely of victims of crime, Wilson says (second paragraph of his paper), “Regardless of whether the victim is black or white, there are no significant differences between victim reports and police arrests.”

      On a more anecdotal level, I lived in Northeast DC for over 20 years, during the crack wars when DC had a murder rate in 400s( a city of 600K, usually now in the 100s). What the academic types do not realize concerns status on the block.The guy who lived next to me did six years at Lorton(the DC prison at the time) and when he came back he was King of the block. ‘Pee-Wee’ had more status than any Phd from Harvard.

      As Heather MacDonald said in an interview,”I walked around the housing project talking to people. They were very hostile. Obviously some white girl coming up to talk to them, I don’t expect them to greet me with open arms, or even welcoming. They seemed untouched by civilization. It was disturbing.”

      “They seemed untouched by civilization” is the way it was. I repeat ‘untouched by civilization’ and that is what the rest of America cannot grasp

    75. My complaint is that the freeways in southern California are parking lots due to immigration, legal and illegal. We are prisoners in our own neighborhoods. Another complaint is the welfare that is paid to legal and illegal immigrants, not to mention that they vote Democrat which results in a failed state. Now I have to leave the state due to its failure.
      Governor Brown was in Mexico and invited them to come to California legal and illegal. California is very welcoming of illegals as you know how the California State and local governments give sanctuary. Governor Brown said they we do not have to obey federal law. The problems of California are well documented. The Democratic Party, like with the Blacks, believes in keeping the immigrants on the plantation of government benefits. California has the highest tax rates in the nation.

    76. @Benjamin David Steele

      ‘Perhaps you’d care to link to those you consider most authoritative ?”

      You could read one of hundreds of scholarly books on the topic. But I don’t spoonfeed info to people. I’ve found that people who want to know something tend to already know it or are able to easily find the necessary info. As for those that don’t want to know, all the information in the world won’t make a bit of difference.’

      In other words you would not care to link to your sources.

      I’m reasonably confident you don’t have any, and you don’t have any because what you assert isn’t true.

      • Replies: @Benjamin David Steele
    77. @Colin Wright

      Nope. I say what I mean. And I mean what I say. Those worthy of intelligent, rational debate are already informed or else capable of informing themselves. Otherwise, I’m just not interested. It’s my policy. Take it or leave it.

      • Replies: @James N. Kennett
    78. Sbaker says:
      @JI

      Why? Obviously you have not lived close enough to African communities.

      • Replies: @Anon
    79. @JI

      Professor Thomas Sowell and Tommy Sotomayor are to Black Americans that have videos on You Tube. A few hours watching them will give you the raw truth of Black lives in America.

      THE BLACK HOLOCAUST
      JOHN W. FOUNTAIN
      [email protected]
      Last Modified: May 6, 2012

      [MORE]

      Imagine Soldier Field beyond capacity, brimming with 63,879 young African-American men, ages 18 to 24 — more than U.S. losses in the entire Vietnam conflict. Imagine the University of Michigan’s football stadium — the largest in the U.S. — filled to its limit of 109,901 with black men, age 25 and older. Now add 28,223 more — together totaling more than U.S. deaths in World War I.
      Picture two UIC Pavilions packed with 12,658 Trayvon Martins — black boys, ages 14 to 17 — nearly twice the number of U.S. lives lost in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now picture all of them dead. The national tally of black males 14 and older murdered in America from 1976 through 2005, according to U.S. Bureau of Justice statistics: 214,661. The numbers tell only part of the story of this largely urban war, where the victims bear an uncanny resemblance to their killers. A war of brother against brother, filled with wanton and automatic gunfire, even in the light of day, on neighborhood streets, where little boys make mud pies, schoolgirls jump rope, where the innocent are caught in the crossfire, where the spirit of murder blows like the wind. It is, so far, a ceaseless war in which guns are often the weapon of choice, and the finger on the trigger of the gun pointed at a black male is most often another black male’s.

      The numbers alone are enough to make me cry — to wonder why — we as African Americans will march en masse over one slain by someone who is not black, and yet sit silent over the hundreds of thousands of us obliterated from this mortal world by someone black like us, like me. It is a numbing truth borne out by hard facts: From 1980 through 2008, 93 percent of black victims were killed by blacks. Translation: For every Trayvon Martin killed by someone not black, nine other blacks were murdered by someone black.

      In 2005, — blacks — accounted for 13 percent of the U.S. population but 49 percent of all homicides. The numbers are staggering, the loss incomprehensible. Add to the tally of black males 14 and older slain across the country from 1976 to 2005, another 29,335 (slain from 2006 to 2010), and their national body count rises to 243,996, representing 82 percent of all black homicides for that 35-year period. What also becomes clear is this: We too often have raised killers. And this war is claiming our sons. But that’s still not the end of the story. Add to that number 51,892 black females ages 14 and older, plus five whose gender was not identifiable, and the total, not counting children, is 295,893 — more than the combined U.S. losses of World War I, the Vietnam, Korean and Mexican-American wars, the War of 1812 and the American Revolutionary War.

      Is the blood of these sons and daughters somehow less American? Two hundred ninety-five thousand eight hundred ninety-three . . . Imagine the United Center, Wrigley Field, U.S. Cellular Field and Soldier Field nearly all filled simultaneously with black boys, girls, men and women. Now imagine that twice over. Now imagine them all dead. As far as I can see, that’s at least 295,893 reasons to cry. And it is cause enough for reticent churches, for communities, for lackadaisical leaders, for all people — no matter our race, color or creed — to find the collective will and the moral resolve to stamp out this human rights atrocity occurring right under our noses. Just imagine the human carnage and the toll to us all if we don’t.
      I can’t. I won’t.
      JOHN W. FOUNTAIN

    80. Ron Unz says:
      @Eric Rasmusen

      It would be better to do regressions here than to use correlation coefficients, as I’ll explain. What the correlation coefficient measures is the correlation, which is the extent to which crime goes up when hispanic percentage goes up. High correlation means they move together. But, crucially, it doesn’t mean that changes in the hispanic population explain most crime changes.

      Well, all the insults and accusations of dishonesty I was receiving for having merely provided weighted-correlations rather than multivariate regressions, I dug up my old data and wasted my time performing a dozen of the latter:

      https://www.unz.com/runz/an-open-letter-to-the-alt-right-and-others/#comment-2737016

      Naturally, the results came out just as I knew they would. Absolutely none of the white or Hispanic coefficients were statistically significant, with most of them being insignificant.

      • Replies: @James N. Kennett
    81. Lemmings and humans; the only animals that seem to enjoy committing suicide.

      • Replies: @Thomasina
    82. @Anonymous

      If not thrown out of the thread,

      Smart article, that is pertinent to Democratic run up, “Bloomberg” convenient. It is some about influencing. Timing and (flawed?) quantitative analysis combined. Smart as parenthesis.

    83. JasonT says:

      Perhaps U.S. police forces and courts are so overwhelmingly racist against blacks that they preferentially arrest, charge and convict blacks for all sorts of bogus reasons thereby pushing the black ‘crime’ rate up. As a city’s population becomes less black, there are fewer blacks to falsely arrest and the crime rate goes down.

    84. JasonT says:

      In my last post, when I referred to “crime rate” without qualification in the last sentence, I meant ‘overall’ crime rate, whereas in the second to last sentence the phrase “black ‘crime’ rate” refers only to black people, not the overall crime rate. To further illustrate:

      In year 1, the population is 400, including 100 black people, 100 white people, 100 hispanic people and 100 asian people. Of the black people, 50 are ‘criminals’, which provides a black crime rate of 0.5 (50/100). Of the whites, 10 are ‘criminals’, which provides a white crime rate of 0.1 (10/100). Of the hispanics, 10 are ‘criminals’, which provides a hispanic crime rate of 0.1 (10/100). Of the asians, 10 are ‘criminals’, which provides an asian crime rate of 0.1 (10/100).

      The overall crime rate in year 1 is 0.2 ((50+10+10+10)/400).

      In year 2, the population is still 400 but the demographics have changes to 40 black people, 120 white people, 120 hispanic people and 120 asian people. Of the black people, 20 are ‘criminals’, which provides a black crime rate of 0.5 (20/40). Of the whites, 12 are ‘criminals’, which provides a white crime rate of 0.1 (12/120). Of the hispanics, 12 are ‘criminals’, which provides a hispanic crime rate of 0.1 (12/120). Of the asians, 12 are ‘criminals’, which provides an asian crime rate of 0.1 (12/100).

      The overall crime rate in year 2 has gone down to 0.14 ((20+12+12+12)/400).

      Comparing year 1 to year 2, the overall population is the same and the crime rate of each racial group is the same. However, the overall crime rate goes down as the black share of the population goes down.

      The question is, therefore, why is the black crime rate higher than the crime rates of each of the other individual races.

      One possible answer is that the police and courts are racist and dishonest, falsely labeling blacks as criminals at a greater rate than other racial groups.

      One possible answer is that the police and courts are racist and dishonest, falsely not labeling other racial groups as criminals at a greater rate than blacks.

      One possible answer is that the police and courts are not racist and dishonest, and blacks have a greater propensity to crime than other racial groups. (And if this is correct, the question then becomes why again.)

      Any other possible reasons?

      • Replies: @Kali
    85. ethnicity data is provided by zip code while crime data is reported by precinct, so a major research undertaking would be required to match these dissimilar aggregational units for calculation purposes

      It would not really be a ‘major research undertaking’ to do the spatial analysis required.

      Given spatial data that included geometries of the precincts and zipcodes, cross-apportioning aspatial attributes to their areas of overlap, and then summing them to zipcode level is a one-line SQL query in a PostGIS-enabled database.

      I’ve been doing that sort of thing since before 2013 – both aggregating and distributing attribute data to dissimilar aggregate boundaries.

      For example: here in Australia, census data is collected by ‘Statistical Area Level 2’ (SA2). SA2 boundaries are roughly the same size as, but different to, ‘Suburb’ boundaries.

      Sometimes we want census data aggregated up to ‘Local Government Area’ (LGA). Each LGA will include several SA2s (but often not 100% of some SA2s, since an SA2 may overlap an LGA).

      Sometimes we want census data ‘distributed’ down to ‘Mesh Block’ (groups of ~30-50 land parcels): that’s a more interesting problem since you have to adjust for number of dwellings in a Mesh Block, with some consideration of the approximate dwelling size (as a proxy for household size). It’s not exact, but it guarantees that you don’t allocate population to vacant lots, for example.

      And of course in the ‘aggregation’ case, if an SA2 only partially overlaps an LGA boundary, you have to make sensible decisions about how you allocate the SA2 census number between the ‘overlap’ part and the other bit. Kind of a ‘mini-distribution’ problem – but still an already solved problem in GIS.

      .

      Anyhow… I like interesting things. I might go check if this exercise has been done before (which seems likely); if not I’ll get hold of some data for a state and do a preliminary study and see if I can finagle a publication out of it.

      I already have boundary shapefiles for US 5-digit zipcode, and the US Enthicity by Zipcode (JSON – no boundaries). Plus, I’ve got and NYC police precinct boundaries.

      Looks like NYC is going to be the first cab off the rank: just need the crime stats by precinct.

    86. But could such a strikingly simple sociological truth possibly be correct? After all, academic scholars have long advanced a wide variety of different socio-economic explanations for crime, and these have often been heavily promoted by pundits and the media.

      Have you ever see an academic analysis that had the dummy variable “Black or Not Black” to control for this as an explanatory variable?

    87. swamped says:

      “Consider that over one-quarter of all the urban black males in America have vanished from our society, a loss-ratio approaching that experienced by Europeans during the Black Death of the Middle Ages”…actually the loss ratio among Europeans during the Bubonic Plague was probably much higher – about twice that – in many areas; and affected the entire population, not just one racial subset. And you didn’t need the medieval scribes of the Fourteenth Century to tell you that since it was all around you. You could hardly have ignored the annihilating impact of the bubonic plague even if you wanted to. Just like you can hardly ignore the much less but still considerable impact of black crime & illegal immigration (mainly Spanish & Asian) all around us; even if our modern day liberal scribes don’t often want to report it (or at least report it’s racial composition). This article was apparently written several years ago anyway (2013 seems so long ago, almost quaint) during the Obama tenure & before the plague of ‘woke’ politics. Now we’re constantly reminded of Black grievance & White irredeemability, whether the reality exists or not. What else can you do but cover your eyes to this incessant childish castigation?

    88. anarchyst says:

      Those who demonize whites for being responsible for “that peculiar institution”–slavery also demonize whites for the failure of “public education” in predominantly black-run school districts.

      There are constant calls for “more money” as, even when outspending white and rural school districts, it is never enough. Perhaps it would be easier just to flush the money down the toilet, as these black bastards have no interest in getting an education.

      [MORE]

      In most urban black-run school systems, performing at grade level can be measured in the low percentages, often below 20%.

      We are constantly being reminded that in slave days, it was illegal to give slaves an “education”- to teach slaves to read and write.

      It seems that today’s blacks are doing “a bang up job” on their own, in today’s black-majority “public schools”. The few blacks who truly want an education are criticized, brow-beaten, and even attacked for daring to want to learn.

      Teachers in these dysfunctional schools are actually glorified “baby-sitters” whose job is to minimize the disruptions from those blacks who do not want to learn. They may start out being idealistic, wanting to change the system, but quickly find out that the system is stacked against them, and the best course of action is to “go along to get along”, especially when most of the administrators are black, themselves and make lame and feeble excuses for the misbehavior of their “charges”.

      Black-run public schools have been precursors for the prison systems. It seems that public education has become a “finishing system”, preparing its students for eventual incarceration.

      This failure of “public education” has been going on for a long time. It started with the racial desegregation of public schools in the 1950s and 1960s.

      The ordeal that us white students had to go through was harrowing, to say the least. White students did not use the restrooms, as a “beatdown” by multiple blacks was usually the result.

      Blacks never fought one-on-one, the “pack mentality” was evident then as is today.

      Any attempts by whites to defend themselves was met with indifference, and even outright hostility from school officials. You see, even then, blacks were “not responsible” for their behavior.

      Blacks did not want to learn, the same situation that still exists today. Even then, blacks were disruptive. Most of the teachers just shrugged their shoulders, let the disruptions go on until the next class period.

      Teachers were deferential to blacks, although there were a few teachers who tried to carefully shield their white and asian students from predatory blacks, giving them additional attention and coursework, knowing that they could excel in spite of the, violent, raucous atmosphere.

      Anywhere blacks go, they destroy…

      • Agree: Nicholas Stix
      • Replies: @The Grim Joker
    89. Kali says:
      @JasonT

      This is purely hypothetical, but, I think, worth considering:

      During the 1980’s in Britain one of the methods used by the Thatcher government to bring an end to a rapidly growing (new age) traveller movement, (specifically the Peace Convoy and the related Free Festivals, which were springing up more frequently) following brutal supression*, was to flood the surviving scene with heroine, ketamine and Carlsberg Special Brewer (aka; loony juice). With the result that the movement effectively decayed from within. – High crime. Low trust. Addiction. [This is langely anecdotal information I gathered during friendships and aquaintences with survivors of “*The Battle of the Bean Field” – documentary available online.]

      What is (close to 0.8?) the correlation between hard-drug adiction and crime? And are there increased risk of drug addiction for black people/communities..? I’d hazard there are.

      This leads me to wonder when it was exactly that black communities became addicted, and was there a (((merchant class))) or (((government agency))) within close enough proximity to those communities to be able to sell them the means of their own distruction, and devolution before they could become successful?

      Which other group, or groups, may have benefited from the destabilisation of a community newly emerging from under the boot of social and economic oppression?

      Actually, the first thing I wondered about was what effect might all of those medical experiments many black communities were subject to “back in the day”. But dismissed this as too big a stretch. I mention it here because, who knows..?

      I find the stats in this article pretty mind-blowing. Then I considered the proximity of so many JSO’s (thank you GeoKat) to the black community and suddenly I find a new perspective. (This fact in itself I find quite shocking!)

      Kali.

      • Replies: @JasonT
      , @orionyx
    90. JasonT says:
      @Kali

      I would not put that sort of thing past the authorities in the U.S.A., but that level of shenanigans still seems a stretch to me and I have not seen evidence to that effect.

      • Replies: @Kali
    91. @Benjamin David Steele

      First you say:

      I’m surprised that Unz would write such a detailed analysis while being so uninformed about what has already been done in the field. There is already plenty of research that has shown the racial disparities in various social problems disappear when poverty and economic class are controlled for.

      then, when asked for details:

      You could read one of hundreds of scholarly books on the topic. But I don’t spoonfeed info to people. I’ve found that people who want to know something tend to already know it or are able to easily find the necessary info. As for those that don’t want to know, all the information in the world won’t make a bit of difference.

      And finally:

      Those worthy of intelligent, rational debate are already informed or else capable of informing themselves. Otherwise, I’m just not interested. It’s my policy. Take it or leave it.

      I’m calling BS. If you were genuinely familiar with the “hundreds of scholarly books on the topic”, you would have no difficulty recommending one that covers the main points, and you would also be able to summarize its arguments in a comment. Not for the benefit of those who are claiming expertise in the subject, but for the much larger number who are here to read, discuss, and learn.

      • Replies: @Benjamin David Steele
    92. @Benjamin David Steele

      I would point out that the issue is a lot more complex than those on the political right like to admit, assuming they even understand.

      Many black populations in the early 1900s and late 1800s had … high rates of marriage, religiosity, etc.

      You’d be surprised. The subject does get discussed on conservative blogs, sometimes with insight and compassion.

      A lot of African Americans’ problems can unfortunately be traced to broken families. Yet, as you suggest, the history of the black family is not what most of us would guess. US Census data shows that, only 15 years after the end of slavery in the South, the marriage rates for black and white women were essentially the same. They remained the same until 1950, after which the black marriage rate began a steep decline.

      The first person to remark on the matter was Moynihan, a mere 5 years after the first adverse data point (from the 1960 census). Even though he was careful to point out the harshness of US slavery laws in relation to family life, he was not thanked for pointing out that the African American (then termed “Negro”) family had a problem. Debate has been constrained ever since, with both liberals and conservatives afraid to say anything other than “blame whitey, and make him pay more for his sins”.

      Before anyone jumps to ideological conclusions, all of the data needs to be considered and explained. Ignoring inconvenient data isn’t helpful.

      If looking for causes, a longer historical range is clearly useful.

    93. @Ron Unz

      I dug up my old data and wasted my time performing a dozen of the latter:

      Not a waste at all.

      The correlation coefficients in each plot sum to zero, because the ethnic percentages add up to 100%. Thus if there is a 0.8 correlation with the black percentage, there will be a -0.8 correlation with the non-black percentage (white+Hispanic+Asian). The non-black correlation coefficients paradoxically do not tell us much about non-black crime: the main numerical effect of having 1% more non-blacks, is that you have 1% fewer blacks, and therefore less crime committed by blacks.

      The multivariate analysis avoids this pitfall, and also provides valuable error estimates. I have not yet re-read the article on Latino crime rates, but I would guess that one of the problems of the analysis is that the white and Latino crime rates are so low as to be “in the noise” of the black crime rate.

    94. Kali says:
      @JasonT

      A few years ago I did a degree in politics and sociology (combined honours) and, whilst I didn’t go into it as part of my studies, I did encounter information suggesting, if not a causal relationship between drug addiction and crime, certainly a correlational one.

      I’m sure there are readers here in a possition to dig deeper and produce the relevant statistics.

      The risk of drug addiction for various communities could also be ascertained.

      The results of such analysis, I feel sure, may go some way to explaining such a high propensity of Criminality within the black communities of America.

      Comparisons to criminal patters of behaviour in various other countries may also be useful.

      And if it is found that there is indeed a causal relationship between drug adiction and criminal behaviour, the next question to explore would be, how are certain communities targeted with highly addictive drugs, and who is behind that targeting.

      Personally I’m on no possition to attempt such studies (I live on an isolated mountainside in Portugal, with very limited Internet access, as far out of ‘the system’ as it’s possible to get… besides which, I simply don’t have the time or the grey-matter required for such extensive research). But others, better placed and better qualified than me, might be interested in exploring these questions.

      Best wishes,
      Kali.

      • Replies: @Benjamin David Steele
    95. @Benjamin David Steele

      “There is already plenty of research that has shown the racial disparities in various social problems disappear when poverty and economic class are controlled for.”

      That’s a baldfaced lie.

      https://nicholasstixuncensored.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-color-of-crime.html

      • Replies: @Benjamin David Steele
    96. Renoman says:

      A lot of work to find out what we knew was the truth. Good job though Ron, thank you.

    97. @James N. Kennett

      I’m not exactly surprised. I’ve looked at plenty of conservative media over the years. And I was raised by conservative parents. It’s not that the subject doesn’t get discussed but very little of it is informed and honest. Take your comment, for example.

      Sundown towns, redlining, and many other racist practices, during and following Jim Crow laws, forced blacks into inner cities where they became trapped, often out of fear for their lives. But it initially wasn’t an entirely bad situation because urban economies were booming and jobs were plentiful. The black middle class was growing and unsurprisingly families tend to remain strong during economic good times.

      Then the inner cities became deindustrialized as factories moved to the suburbs or were offshored. But during that period that blacks were losing jobs, racist practices still kept them trapped. Unemployment increased and the few jobs remaining were lower paid with fewer benefits. By the time the racist practices were ended and blacks finally were able to escape the inner cities for the suburbs and smaller towns, the wealthier whites moved back to the cities and gentrified poor neighoborhoods, which then made it unaffordable for the poor.

      This process, of course, didn’t only affect blacks, but disproportionately did so. Poor whites didn’t have to deal with the racism and so larger numbers of them during the mid-century were able to leave poor communities and get good jobs elsewhere, allowing them to slowly assimilate. For similar reasons of racial privilege, poor whites more easily received the benefits from farm aid and the GI Bill. This is the reason, for example, that most farmers today are white even though at one time almost all blacks worked on farms. But for blacks, generations of wealth accumulation was stolen and prvented.

      That is what an honest and informed person would discuss. Yet it is so rare to see examples of this among conservatives. Why?

    98. @Nicholas Stix

      Facts remain true, even when you deny them. There is a vast scientific literature on racial disparities. Read it or don’t. I can’t make you know what you don’t want to know.

      • Replies: @Nicholas Stix
    99. @Kali

      Of course, there is a relationship between the criminalization of drugs and those using drugs being criminalized. But what is interesting is that the data shows that whites use more illegal drugs even as blacks are arrested and imprisoned more for illegal drug crimes.

      Also, consider the work of Bruce Alexander and Johann Hari. Addiction appears to be largely caused by the breakdown of social ties. It’s the reason so many Vietnam soldiers, mostly white by the way, became addicts while overseas but easily gave up addiction when they returned to their families and communities.

      This is different for impoverished communities where social ties have been decimated for racial and economic reasons. Blacks have been hit the hardest, but the rates of drug addiction in poor white communities is just as bad. Look to the rural South, especially Appalachia. They’ve been economically devastated and it has ripped apart once healthy communities.

      https://benjamindavidsteele.wordpress.com/2015/07/12/are-white-appalachians-a-special-case/

      • Replies: @Kali
    100. @Benjamin David Steele

      No such facts or “scientific literature” exists. Keep on lying, and I’ll keep on calling you on it.

      • Replies: @Benjamin David Steele
    101. @anarchyst

      Great commentary on the black man. Elsewhere in the world it is the same thing. For example in South Africa they demand lower passing grades to the point where they might as well stay home and have their diplomas and certificates mailed to the local bar or street corner.

      The Caribbean is also heading in the same direction. To make matters worse, when they dont get what they want they torch the school buildings ! Make sense ? To learn is uncool and no black kid wants to be called a coconut, an oreo or a whitey slave and Uncle Tom.

      This behaviour rolls over and affects the institutions they run which whether in Africa or Western countries they run into the ground and ruin

      Its interesting also that some Unz commentators (like EliteComminc) believe that blacks once ruled vast empires. If they cannot manage a slum hood in this day and age they ruled an empire several thousand years ago ?? Given their propensity to wreck this seems impossible unless the definition of empire is a vast wasteland of bush and wild animals dotted with the occasional cluster of grass roofed huts made of mud and cow shit.

      As the article points out every place they turn up turns into a shit hole and every shit hole they abandon becomes a pleasant , prosperous and peaceful neighbourhood.

      The stats “verify” ??? what we already know !

    102. @Anonymous

      I cannot speak for Ghana but in Cuba the people running things are not black. Further, when you fuck around in Cuba where the death penalty and severe sentences still apply, consequences are swift and very unpleasant. Jails in Cuba are not the federal vacation spots they are in the US.

      Rape is punishable by death if not by the state then by the other prisoners who have female relatives on the outside.

      The justice system in the States is too lenient and becoming more so. If there is no punishment why would anyone fear the law ??

    103. @flankerbandit

      I am not a big macho dude but I have lived in the Bronx and had friends in the South Bronx in some areas that looked like Lebanon during the seige. I also spent lots of time in the Albouystown and Tiger Bay areas of Guyana , the poor areas behind Caracas and some of the favelas in Rio/ Brazil. I have never had any problems. I knew a lot of black people in the Jane Finch area of Toronto but no longer venture there.

      I also worked in one of the black Townships in Western Cape/ South Africa. Again never any issues.

      However I have never stayed in a black area in the US.

      Am I lucky ? Are we lucky ? And in your opinion why are some people able to get away with this while others get rumbled ?

      I would be interested in hearing your conclusions.

    104. Richard B says:
      @JI

      The more conspiratorially-minded racialists, bitterly hostile to immigration, sometimes speculate that there is a diabolical plot by our ruling power structure to “race-replace” America’s traditional white population.

      Who needs a conspiracy theory when you have The Unz Review?

      Leaving that deadly question aside, the above sentence quoted and the following one are really quite remarkable (for brevity’s sake I’ll resist the temptation to explain why, though it’d be worth it. Maybe some other time).

      First, there’s the demeaning heavy-handedness toward those willing to face unpleasant facts, ie;

      conspiratorily-minded, bitterly hostile, speculate, diabolical plot, “race-replace”

      However, after all that, it’s then suggestfed that they very well may be right, to some extent. But, more than likely, they’re mistaken in considering themselves to be the primary target.

      Perhaps a hidden motive along these lines does indeed help explain some support for heavy immigration, but I suspect that the race being targeted for replacement is not the white one.

      To which I would respond, What’s the difference?

      Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that the hostile elite’s real intention is to get two for one.

      After all, it’s not just a matter of intention, but of consequences as well.

      • Replies: @Richard B
    105. Richard B says:
      @Richard B

      Technology executives are highly quantitative individuals, skilled in pattern recognition, and I find it difficult to believe that they have all remained completely oblivious to these local racial factors.

      The same people currently working with various initialed groups to prohibit the very skilled pattern recognition among some of those who use their social media.

    106. @James N. Kennett

      You call BS. And I call BS on your calling BS. So, I guess that makes us even.

      I honestly don’t care. I’ve been down this road so many times before. In my experience, those who demand information are those who don’t actually want to know, whereas those who want to know tend to find it for themselves or else tend to express curiosity in trying to learn what they don’t know.

      Your lack of knowledge and dismissiveness doesn’t demonstrate you’d make an interesting debate partner worthy of the investment of my time and energy. It is largely irrelevant what you think, if you’re unfamiliar with the immense data out there. Without mutual knowledge, debate simply is not possible.

      Your demands of me are meaningless and moot. I’m sorry about that.

      • Replies: @James N. Kennett
    107. @Nicholas Stix

      The scientific literature is found in various studies and books. They aren’t hard to find, if you want to find them. I’m not your parent or your teacher. I can’t tell you what to learn. And I’m not going to try to spoonfeed you info. It’s a free country. Read the scientific literature or not. I won’t be offended in either case. I personally find the whole field of study fascinating. But each to their own.

      • Replies: @Harold
    108. onebornfree says: • Website

      If we assume that your figures showing generally higher crime figures for “blacks”nationwide are mostly correct, then what , Mr Unz, is the solution, assuming you have one?

      My guess as to your “solution”:

      More government, [more laws, more government police, more/”better” government “education, more welfare programs, harsher government sentencing etc. etc. ].

      Am I right?

      Book: “Why Government Doesn’t work”: http://www.jrbooksonline.com/PDF_Books/why_govt_doesnt_work.pdf

      Regards, onebornfree

    109. Anon[645] • Disclaimer says:
      @Sbaker

      Why? Obviously you have not lived close enough to African communities.

      I live very close, and in my long experience every step loser within driving distance is close enough. There is no advantage to closer, only risk.

    110. @Benjamin David Steele

      I honestly don’t care.

      Then is the purpose of your comments simply to let us know that Benjamin David Steele is better informed than Ron Unz and his readers?

    111. Kali says:
      @Benjamin David Steele

      Sorry, Benjamin, I should have been more clear.
      I wasn’t referring to the criminality surrounding drugs themselves (of course where it is illegal to possess, sell, buy and use drugs, that makes the drug-user criminal in itself). I was thinking more of the crime stats which Ron discussed in this article: murder, robbery and violent crime.

      That said, I appreciate your reply and your perspective. I’ve known too many intelligent, non-criminal (British) black people throughout my life to simply accept, without further question, that American blacks are somehow congenitally low IQ criminals. I’m also not so foolish as to simply dismiss the statistical analysis I read on this websight simply because I don’t want the information to be true.

      I have the link to your website open in another tab for reading tomorrow morning.

      Thank you.
      Kali.

    112. c matt says:

      While interesting, the difficulty in getting clear data is complicated by the cross-categorization of White Hispanics. Do the White Hispanic numbers skew the result? If you could tease out White Hispanic from Non-White Hispanic, what would the crime rates for White vs. Hispanic look like?

      The world may never know.

      (A similar issue could exist with Black vs. Black Hispanic).

      • Replies: @Benjamin David Steele
    113. I didn’t say anything like that about Ron Unz. I was talkkng to you. I’m fairly certain you aren’t Ron Unz nor his representative. My only purpose was to respond to your comments that were directed at me. Why did you think that, when I directed my response back to you, that I was somehow really talking about Unz? That seems strange. Show me that you’re informed about the topic and I’ll engage you in discussion. If not, then I won’t. It really is that simple.

      By the way, I have met met a number of well informed race realists and had interesting discussions with them. I’ve never denied such people exist, even if I don’t consider you to be one of them. Or maybe you are more well informed than your comments so far indicate. I’ll keep an open mind about it and wait for an interesting comment from you. I’ll more than glad to admit that I was wrong in assessing you, if that turns out to be the case. It’s just life is short and my time is limited. I pick my battles carefully. It’s not personal.

    114. @c matt

      Earlier last century, they kept crime data on various ethnic groups: Jews, Irish, Italians, Germans, etc. Many of those ethnic groups showed extremely high rates of crime. Thomas Sowell discusses how even blacks used to often leave neighborhoods when the Irish moved in.

      That makes sense. From the end of the Civil War to the early 1900s, black crime rate was lower than seen among whites. That included crimes both against whites and within the black community. It wasn’t until mass urbanization of blacks and the deindustrialization of inner cities that criminallity and family breakdown began to happen with the black population.

      The opposite happened with the ethnic groups. Their crime rates went down from that previous higher rate. But this is an old pattern. The ethnic groups were urbanized much earlier around the turn of the century, whereas the majority of blacks weren’t urbanized until the 1960s or 1970s. It’s easy to forget how different was urbanization for whites and blacks.

      This might seem strange. Blacks had low crime rates that went up. And ethnic whites had high crime rates that went down. But this makes sense when you realize this matches a pattern that has happened in every modern society. In any given population, when it first is urbanized, violence and crime goes up because the traditional communities were lost and the social order is destabilized. T

      hen after some generations, the new urban lifestyle settles back down again to less violence and crime again, unless other destabilizing events intervene. High inequality, for example, always destabilizes a society, irrespective of the urbanization process. That has been a complicating factor in the US where inequality is at the highest for any society in history, precisely during the century of rising urbanization.

      This demonstrates how powerful are environmental factors. But those same external conditions can complicate things further by skewing the data itself in even more direct ways. We know for a fact that there are multiple areas of crime where blacks are stopped, frisked, arrested, prosecuted, and imprisoned at disproportionately higher rates than their rate of committing those crimes. For example, whites are more likely to use, carry, and sell drugs than blacks and yet blacks show up in the drug crime data more.

      It doesn’t matter how bad data is spliced up by race, ethnicity, religion, socioeconomics, or whatever. Bad data will still be bad data. It’s simply not showing the actual picture of what is going on.

      • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
    115. @Kali

      The problem, as I noted in another comment, is the crime data is inaccurate. We’ve known that for a long time. But no one has figured out how to get accurate data on actual crime rates. We know of all the factors that go into why some people get stopped and frisked while others don’t, why some people get arrested and punished harshly while others don’t.

      The crime data doesn’t show the criminals who weren’t stopped and frisked, who weren’t arrested, and who weren’t convicted. We see this all the time in the unpunished crime among the wealthy, not only white collar crime but drug crimes, sexual crimes, etc. Weinstein got away with raping women for decades while hundreds or thousands of people knew about his crimes but his wealth and power made him untouchable.

      Still, it is interesting to look at some of the data, no matter how inaccurate and incomplete. I pointed to how whites not that long ago had higher crime rates than blacks. Then it switched. That definitely shows it wasn’t genetics, as genetics doesn’t change in a few generations. The most obvious changes had to do with urbanization and economics that affected the races differently and at different times. For example, the majority of whites were urbanized around 1900 and the majority of blacks around 1970.

      Anyone familiar with the history of urbanization and its impact would take note of that difference. By the way, Western Europe was mostly urbanized centuries ago.

      • Thanks: Kali
      • Replies: @James Scott
    116. Bookish1 says:
      @Avalanche

      True. If they take away our guns only criminals will have guns. That makes me believe that there reason for taking guns is something else.

    117. So the conclusion has to be that living in America cures Hispanics of their innate criminality but not the blacks. Great! The US is then a good re-education camp for Hispanics and maybe more should be enrolled into it.

    118. @Kali

      Kali,

      If drugs were free and legal and easily available, most of that associated criminality, arising from the need to procure funds to buy the drugs, would disappear. Except of course of few cases, due to its excessive use, engaging in random violence, but then perfectly legal alcohol is probably worse for that.

      But to put in a good word for criminals, without them most of those engaged in law enforcement, the cops, judges, prison guards, lawyers, would be starving. So criminals actually do a good job putting food on the plate of these totally useless parasites engaging in these law enforcement professions, and society would be better off without them, as without the criminals. They exist in a symbiosis, and if there were no crime they’d have to invent it. As would those politicians making a living calling out for their endless wars on crime.

      • Replies: @Kali
    119. @Benjamin David Steele

      You string an astonishing number of assertions together, and provide support for a grand total of zero of them. Frankly it doesn’t help that each and every one is a hackneyed rehashing of ‘Establishment Propaganda’. You’re not adding anything to what any of us can find on a hundred corporate-news propaganda websites. In fact, by not even pretending to document anything, you’re actually subtracting value.

      • Replies: @Benjamin David Steele
    120. Wyatt says:
      @Kali

      Very often, British blacks are apex blacks in their native countries. The creme de la creme of Nigeria and other black nations go to Britain. What you’ve experienced is an apex fallacy. You are not seeing an accurate representation of the average African.

      Low IQ, relative to east asians and whites, is extraordinarily common among blacks. The average black man in America has an IQ of 85 which is profoundly low. It’s a full standard deviation below that of the average white American. And because of the way stat distribution works, approximately 75% of blacks fall below the 100 IQ standard of the average white American. That’s bad for a service economy.

      To get a good example of this, ask an American friend who has ever had to deal with the IRS in detail how awful their experience was. The organization is riddled with unmotivated, easily agitated blacks who are not particularly interested in helping their charges despite that being their goddamn job.

      And I don’t have any hard data to back this up, but credit ratings tell us some interesting things about race. Blacks, unsurprisingly, have very low credit ratings. This tells us two things:

      1. Blacks do not honor their debts with any degree of reliability.
      2. Blacks have low impulse control.

      Now, what do you think happens when you combine IQs that are flirting with mild retardation with a lack of impulse control? Well you get a complete lack of self awareness that predisposes you to making the wrong conclusions. Ask yourself this: when was the last time you ever heard an African-American woman accept responsibility for herself or assign blame to her community? Now how often do you think that happens relative to how often they blame whites for their own failures?

      This is an issue related to genes. Virtually every country with a large enough black population has a sizable black prison population that outstrips the natives relative to head count. Brazil, Canada, England—I would venture a guess that France and Germany have the same problem, but they’re harder to find data for. But I’ll give you the real kicker. Those Nigerians who come to Britain all neat and clean with diplomas and smiling faces? They’re in China too. And they’ve earned themselves a sterling reputation for drug crime and violence.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigerians_in_China

    121. @Mr McKenna

      This is a topic I’ve read and written about for so many years. And I’ve been in what feels like thousands of debates where I’ve cited endlessly. I’ve found that people holding strong ideological positions don’t change their minds based on different evidence. In fact, the research shows that such people simply become stronger in their position the more evidence you show them.

      This is why I know it’s futile right from the start when people demand facts and yet show no indication of open-mindedness, curiosity, and a desire to learn. This why most people who do indicate such traits tend to already know the information and would never think to demand it of others. So, besides an exercise in frustration, what could possibly be achieved? I ask that honestly.

      Nonetheless, the moment you or others criticizing me respond to me in a way that shows you/they will take evidence seriously and demonstrates a basic grasp of the scientific literature, I will engage. I’m waiting. The ball is in your court. I should clarify that I’m not making a dismissive generalization.

      As I’ve said, I’ve had interesting discussion with a few informed and intelligent race realists over the years (e.g., hbdchick). And in the comment section here, I’ve enjoyed some of the other participants. More than a few of the comments are worthy. Kali, for example, made good comments. I also responded to some other commenters above with a respectful attitude and provided arguments that can be backed up.

      My response to each person is dependent on my assessment of the individual. Of course, this is the internet and that makes communication difficult. Maybe I have you wrong. If so, I’ll apologize and engage with you. I wish you no ill will. I feel the need to pick and choose carefully how I invest my time and energy. There are too many strangers online who want to debate me and demand stuff of me. I’m a working man and there simply aren’t enough hours in the day.

    122. BlackFlag says:
      @James N. Kennett

      Have to respect Black males.

      They are not overly sensitive to social pressure and open enough to make dramatic changes when cirucumstances demand it. And they can do this despite of having low IQ!

      They almost immediately adapted to changing sexual mores, quickly realizing marriage no longer held any benefits and ditched it in mass. Other groups are finally beginning to catch on half a century later!

      Also, try convincing Blacks to be content with being ethnically cleansed from their territories, because their replacements commit less crime. LOL. Something Whites seem to believe which is why they argue so fiercely against mild Hispanic crime rates. At least Blacks put up something of a fight in Los Angeles neighborhoods.

    123. anarchyst says:
      @Kali

      The slaves who were brought to the “new world” were not the “best and brightest”, but were the “dregs” of the societies that they were separated from…

      As slaves were the “losers” in the various internecine conflicts taking place among the constantly-warring tribes, they were easily placed into bondage. “To the victors, belong the spoils”.

      Add to that, the various “village chiefs” wanted to get rid of their troublemakers, criminals, ne-er-do-wells, and other marginal individuals; selling them into bondage was their “solution”-solving two problems at once.

      We are living with the future generations of these now-useless and obsolete “farm implements” and are suffering from their idiosyncrasies and criminal behavior as a result of their ancestors being brought to the “new world”.

      The last vestiges of the slave plantation mentality still exist in Louisiana’s Angola State Prison, where manual labor is still used to grow and harvest crops. This system works, as the inmates are required to perform manual labor. Very little mechanical machinery is used, as there is a surplus of “human capital”. This could be a model for the rest of the country and a way to deal with our black “problem”. If blacks want to stay in this country, the plantation system should be what they live under.

      • Replies: @BlackFlag
    124. Tony says:

      Any difference between mulatto hispanic and mestizo hispanic crime rates?

    125. Kali says:
      @Commentator Mike

      Thanks Commentator Mike.

      Your comment brought to mind an expression common where I’m from : better to trust a thief than a liar. – speaking of criminals and cops.

      On reflection I’m surprised these aspects of crime and drug use visit the black community (and even IQ testing) isn’t more widely discussed on UR.

      Hope you’re well Mike, and the insanity of the world isn’t throwing you off balance.

      Best wishes,
      Kali.

      • Thanks: Commentator Mike
    126. Kali says:
      @Wyatt

      I’ve read here on UR plenty of articles and comments which point to low IQ amongst black populations.

      Given that I’ve already experienced my own awakening regarding the Jewish question/threat, as well as regarding the liberal mainstream media and education/indoctrination, not to mention “climate change”, I’m not about to dismiss the IQ or crime information simply because it makes me uncomfortable (and it does).

      By the same token, I feel there must be other (beyond mainstream propaganda) factors to consider before deciding most black people are congenitally stupid and prone to Criminality.

      What you’ve experienced is an apex fallacy. You are not seeing an accurate representation of the average African.

      Whilst this is interesting and worth considering, my own experience is of 4th and 5th generation British blacks.

      And on thinking about that I find myself remembering the large influx of Samali’s which arrived in Liverpool in the years before I left – When an already rough city got noticeably rougher.

      Thanks,
      Kali.

      • Replies: @John Regan
    127. Mike-SMO says:

      Two sub-populations for the most part:

      https://www.newyorker.com/culture/personal-history/my-great-grandfather-the-nigerian-slave-trader

      Although three if you consider the small group of “Maroons” in eastern Jamaica that appear to have been barely manageable Akan/Asante and Youruba/Ibo “POWs”.

      The Nigerian system allowed those who lost their freedom due to bad luck to prosper with “sponsors”. The persistent screw-ups or criminals got traded for Yankee rum or Arab goods.

      It isn’t clear how the present descendants of kidnap victims (normies) could be identified from those of the “double culls”.

    128. Harold says:
      @Benjamin David Steele

      I looked into it. The scientific literature contradicts your contentions. Come back when you have read more throughly.

      • LOL: BlackFlag
    129. BlackFlag says:
      @anarchyst

      Well, don’t be so hard on Blacks. We’re pretty much all obsolete farm and warrior equipment. Only a few classes of people such as Jewish merchants, Chinese mandarins still have value.

      • Replies: @anarchyst
    130. BlackFlag says:
      @Wyatt

      The extreme differences between Hispanic and Black crime rates don’t seem to hold up in Latin America. BTW, virtually all murder capitals are in the Americas. What’s the explanation for that?

      Plenty of Blacks in Brazil, Venezuela, Jamaica but few in Meso-America( Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, etc.). Looks bimodal.

      Could the Meso-American rates be attributed to the drug cartels? I don’t think there’s so much of that in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate?wprov=sfla1

      What do you think?

      • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    131. What is the reason for the author’s gratuitous mentioning of Zimmerman? Well since you brought it up, what is Zimmerman? Or, what was Zimmerman at the time of the slaying of Trayvon martin? Don’t give me conclusions like “he was a neighborhood watch captain”. Give me facts. And what was Trayvon martin? Don’t give me your conclusions like “he was a thug “ give me facts.

      Here are the facts:

      an armed motorist followed, confronted, shot and killed an unarmed pedestrian

      Oh, and the armed motorist was asked by the authorities not to follow the unarmed pedestrian but be disobeyed.

      Yet millions of Americans and probably 95% of the bigots attracted to this site believe that the armed motorist was the one with the right to self defense instead of the unarmed pedestrian , when it is an undisputed fact that the armed motorist initiated the encounter. The other side of the story was slayed and I see no reason to believe anything that the armed motorist says about the encounter unless we have other corroborating facts. Thx.

      • Troll: anarchyst
      • Replies: @The Grim Joker
      , @Tlotsi
    132. @Benjamin David Steele

      Whites have never had a higher crime rate than blacks unless you don’t factor in population levels.

    133. anarchyst says:
      @BlackFlag

      You make an excellent point about “the rest of us” being “used” by the jews.

      Regards,

    134. The doubling of the incarceration rate as the result of the 1994 Crime Bill (passed in late 1994, mostly implemented in 1996 and later) was supposedly in reaction to high violent crime. But violent crime is proportional to the percentage of young men (~16 to 25 years old) and by 1994-1996, the “gold standard” homicide rate was already falling, soon to reach ‘normal’ levels, yet the incarceration rate remains at this double level, the highest in the world.
      So an obvious question: did removing relatively non-violent Blacks (and the poor, the only ones usually jailed for any time) at double the rate make the nation safer? Or is this counterproductive (as well as morally unconscionable), putting further stress on the bottom classes, and in the case of Blacks, destroying their communities (since a high proportion of Black men were affected) and giving rise to a “thug” counterculture? Few have any problem with imprisoning violent offenders, but drug possession and addiction should be treated as a disease, not a crime.
      A second question pertains to non-Black immigrants, Hispanic or refugees from Bush’s/ Obama’s wars and coups all over the Mid East, Africa, Latin America and Ukraine. While Mexicans streamed across the borders after NAFTA killed their farms, people in Central America have had their countries turned into narco states in a bipartisan manner by our neocons/ CIA. Many of these Central American immigrants are not innocents, but on the losing side in drug wars. Their homicide rates are much higher than the US (in El Salvador more than 10-fold higher). Will this ‘cultural’ difference follow with them to the US, much as the Mafia followed Italian immigrants over 100 years ago?

      • Thanks: Kali
    135. @E. Waldo Ralpherson

      You are a sack of dog shit ! THAT is the fact !

      • Replies: @E. Waldo Ralpherson
    136. @Benjamin David Steele

      Then the inner cities became deindustrialized as factories moved to the suburbs

      LOL. Racist factory owners walked away from a pool of cheap labor just to screw over Blacks.

      Six Days in July — Coverage of the 1967 Detroit riots

      • Replies: @Corrupt
    137. @Benjamin David Steele

      From the end of the Civil War to the early 1900s, black crime rate was lower than seen among whites.

      KKK and lynch mobs?

    138. @Wyatt

      The creme de la creme of Nigeria and other black nations go to Britain. What you’ve experienced is an apex fallacy.

      What creme de la creme might look like:

      2011 England riots

    139. @The Grim Joker

      Name calling is not a fact.

      What is untrue about the following statement regarding the slaying of Trayvon martin?

      An armed motorist
      Followed
      Confronted
      Shot and
      Killed
      An unarmed pedestrian.

      What part of that is not true???? And also you don’t deny that the armed motorist was told by the authorities not to follow the unarmed pedestrian yet he disobeyed, do you??

      A vehicle is a moving fortress with locked doors and can be a deadly weapon itself. Getting out of that vehicle to confront the unarmed pedestrian was CLEALY a provocative act to any fair minded person.

    140. @BlackFlag

      Yes, if you repeated this same exercise for global cities, instead of US alone, I presume that you’d get a strong correlation with Hispanics.

      Crime rates can change, presumably due to many factors and not just racial makeup. Consider Jamaica:

      When Jamaica gained independence in 1962, the murder rate was 3.9 per 100,000 inhabitants, one of the lowest in the world. In 2005, Jamaica had 1,674 murders for a murder rate of 58 per 100,000 people. That year, Jamaica had the highest murder rate in the world.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Jamaica

      • Replies: @The Grim Joker
      , @BlackFlag
    141. kikz says:
      @JI

      intimate contact = postjudice 😀

    142. Kraemer says:
      @Dan

      The correlation of crime to census Hispanics will always be inaccurate, since a large number of the criminal element of the Hispanic community will never appear on the census, since they’re here illegally. Furthermore, the legal Hispanics have to pass immigration control, which filters for non-criminals.

    143. Blacks are violent:

      Richard et al. (2014) meta-analyzed data from 14 separate studies and found that Blacks had higher levels of free floating testosterone in their blood than Whites suggesting that testosterone levels may predispose Blacks towards higher rates of crime.

      Compounding this, a high percentage of Blacks have dysfunctional versions of the MAOA androgen receptor gene which is a key part of the mechanism by which testosterone has its effects throughout the body and brain.

      [MORE]

      MAOA’s job is to break down crucial neurotransmitters which can build up in the brain and cause a loss of impulse control and an increase in violence and rage.

      The MAOA gene can come in the form of 2, 3, 3.5, 4, or 5 allele. A 3-repeat allele is considered dysfunctional and is what is referred to as the “warrior gene”. A 2-repeat (2R) allele is considered very dysfunctional.

      The 2-repeat allele does not produce a protein needed to break down old serotonin. It is strongly correlated to criminality and doubles the rate of violence of the 3R without needing an environmental interaction mechanism. People with a 2-repeat allele MAOA gene have a permanent chemical imbalance in their brain making the person more likely to be agitated, aggressive, and impulsive.

      Only 0.00067% of Asians and .5% of Whites have the MAOA 2-repeat allele version, compared to 4.7% of Blacks.

      That means Blacks are 9.4x more likely to have the very dysfunctional version of the MAOA gene than Whites. Considering that Blacks are 10x more likely to commit extreme violence and anti-social behavior than Whites, this is very significant.

      Exploring the association between the 2-repeat allele of the MAOA gene promoter polymorphism and psychopathic personality traits, arrests, incarceration, and lifetime antisocial behavior

      A line of research has revealed that a polymorphism in the promoter region of the MAOA gene is related to antisocial phenotypes. Most of these studies examine the effects of low MAOA activity alleles (2-repeat and 3-repeat alleles) against the effects of high MAOA activity alleles (3.5-repeat, 4-repeat, and sometimes 5-repeat alleles), with research indicating that the low MAOA activity alleles confer an increased risk to antisocial phenotypes. The current study examined whether the 2-repeat allele, which has been shown to be functionally different from the 3-repeat allele, was associated with a range of antisocial phenotypes in a sample of males drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Analyses revealed that African-American males who carried the 2-repeat allele were, in comparison with other African-American male genotypes, significantly more likely to be arrested and incarcerated. Additional analyses revealed that African-American male carriers of the 2-repeat allele scored significantly higher on an antisocial phenotype index and on measures assessing involvement in violent behaviors over the life course. There was not any association between the 2-repeat allele and a continuously measured psychopathic personality traits scale. The effects of the 2-repeat allele could not be examined in Caucasian males because only 0.1% carried it.

      Blacks are also more likely to have versions of dopamine genes like ANKK1 and DAT1 that have been linked to antisocial behavior.

      A 2012 study using the Add Health data found that the 2-repeat version of the MAOA gene is significantly associated with antisocial behavior and the likelihood of criminality in Black males.

      https://lesacreduprintemps19.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/exploring-the-association-between-the-2-repeat-allele-of-the-maoa-gene.pdf

      The Color of Crime:

               •   Black males age 18-35 years of age are only 1.8% of the U.S. population, yet have committed 52% of homicides from 1980-2008. Black males (all ages) are only 6% of the U.S. population, yet commit 46% of all violent crimes, and 50% of the gun homicides. If Blacks were removed from the equation, the U.S. gun homicide rate would be equal to Great Britain’s, who have some of the most restrictive gun control laws in the world.

               •   The Black homicide rate is 17 per 100,000, a rate over 9x that of the White rate, and comparable to some of those most murderous countries in the world. If the homicide rate for the U.S. were the White-only rate, the homicide rate would drop 84%, making the U.S. rate comparable to European countries.

               •   According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics 2018 survey of criminal victimization, there were 593,598 interracial violent victimizations (excluding homicide) between Blacks and Whites last year, including White-on-Black and Black-on-White attacks. Blacks committed 537,204 of those interracial felonies, or 90 percent, and Whites committed 56,394 of them, or less than 10 percent.

               •   According to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting for 2018, of the homicide victims for whom race was known, 53.3% were Black, 43.8% were White and 2.8% were of other races. In cases where the race of the offender was known, 54.9% were Black, 42.4% were White, and 2.7% were of other races.

               •   Of the nearly 770,000 violent interracial crimes committed every year involving Blacks and Whites, Blacks commit 85 percent and Whites commit 15 percent. This means that a Black is 27 times more likely to attack a White person than vice versa.

               •   For each one standard deviation increase in proportion of Black population, firearm homicide rate is increased by 82.8%. Therefore, the U.S. has a Black problem, not a gun or violent crime problem. When Blacks commit crimes of violence, they are nearly three times more likely than non-Blacks to use a gun, and more than twice as likely to use a knife.

               •   40% of gun crime occurs in just three cities: 596 (10%) – St Louis, MO, 53 (11%) – Detroit, MI, and 1,527 (27%) – Chicago, IL.

               •   Murder is the leading cause of death for Black men, ages 15 to 34. Their murderers are other Black men 93 percent of the time.

               •   Black males between 16-35 years of age are only 4.2% of the population, yet commit 72% of the street crime in America.

               •   The single best indicator of violent crime levels in an area is the percentage of the population that is Black.

              •   If New York City were all White, the murder rate would drop by 91 percent, the robbery rate by 81 percent, and the shootings rate by 97 percent. In an all-White Chicago, murder would decline 90 percent, rape by 81 percent, and robbery by 90 percent.

              •   The United States is third in murders throughout the world, but if you omit just five Black cities (Chicago, Detroit, Washington DC, St Louis, and New Orleans) from the equation, then the United States is fourth from the bottom.

               •   Black serial killers have comprised over half of documented serial killers since the dawn of the 21st century at 56 percent, making up a total of 40 percent in years dating back to 1900. Blacks constituted 44% of the known serial killers during the 1995-2004 period and 38.2% of all multiple murderers (serial, mass, and spree combined) during 1976-1998 period. During the 2000-2010 decade, 62% of serial killers were Black.

      https://archive.org/details/6396bf06c11b81777c27ca0edcb4fdbb4ae17354576954101f6d
      6ce3a015b806

      https://archive.org/details/SerialKillerRate

      2019 Data Shows 51% of Mass Shooters Were Black, Only 29% Were White:

      https://summit.news/2019/08/07/2019-data-shows-51-of-mass-shooters-were-black-only-29-were-white/

      In 2016, the police fatally shot 233 Blacks, the vast majority armed and dangerous, according to the Washington Post. The paper categorized only 16 Black male victims of police shootings as “unarmed.” That classification masks assaults against officers and violent resistance to arrest.

      Contrary to the Black Lives Matter narrative, the police have much more to fear from Black males than Black males have to fear from the police. In 2015, a police officer was 18.5 times more likely to be killed by a Black male than an unarmed Black male was to be killed by a police officer.

      From 1980 to 2013, there were 2,269 officers killed in felonious incidents, and 2,896 offenders. The racial breakdown of offenders over that 33-year period was 52% White, and 41% Black. So, the 13% total Black population in the U.S. commits 41% of police murders.

      Further, Black males have made up 42% of all cop-killers over the last decade, though they are only 6 percent of the population. That 18.5 ratio undoubtedly worsened in 2016, in light of the 53 percent increase in gun murders of officers — committed vastly and disproportionately by Black males.

    144. @E. Waldo Ralpherson

      I care not one whit what YOU consider to be true or not. Further being in a locked vehicle, a “fortress can be a deadly weapon” etc is sheer nonsense and is IRRELEVANT.

      What is relevant is that the case was tried in a court and the man released after all the facts were examined and cross examined ad nauseum and the situation took on the usual heavy political under and over tones, more so since this was a white /black shooting.

      Waldo………… we have a legal process in the US. You can disagree with the outcome, you can critique the legal system, you can form your own hypothesis and wax philosophically about what is provocative and fair minded but IN A COURT OF LAW only facts and evidence matter.

      You need to get out of your wheel chair and get some fresh air, this might (notice I said might ) clear up some of the cobwebs floating around in your empty head.

    145. @Commentator Mike

      The crime rate was low in the islands because the British government used the rope and whip when blacks committed murder, rape and assault. These were considered “inhumane” and abolished hence the explosion in the murder rate…..which of course no one protests as being inhumane to the victims.

      Since Jamaica is now mainly black its black on black crime, rape, robbery and murder.

      Get talking to most West Indians and you will find they suffer more under their own black governments and many wish the death penalty to be reinstated. Sorry to say black criminals understand only severe punishment and this also helps to keep the others in line. Anyone who considers themselves humanitarian and all that need only look to S/Africa to see the same pattern.

      Its fun for a black man to whine about the white man and his “evil” ways but is it any fun for him to see his daughter or wife raped by multiple black men and then butchered with machetes ?

      It seems to be a cruel paradox that blacks prefer a corrupt black dictator putting the screws to them and the fact that independence from the white man has done them no good. I find it amusing that they “escaped” the yoke of the white man and yet they immigrated to the UK, Canada and the US.

      Why are these folks not immigrating to Africa ??

      • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    146. Corrupt says:
      @Anonymous

      “Minorities such as the Hispanic and Black population in the US due to discrimination occupy more of the lower level positions in the in the work field than whites. ”

      Discrimination? Maybe the relatively low educational attainment reached is responsible for the “lower level positions” that minorities find themselves in. As education to at least the high school level is free in this country, the lack of educational accomplishment is the fault of those who feel that doing well is too white (blacks), or the fact that many hispanic immigrants come to this country with barely a grade school education, let alone high school and can’t speak or write english.

    147. Corrupt says:
      @Hippopotamusdrome

      “LOL. Racist factory owners walked away from a pool of cheap labor just to screw over Blacks.”

      More likely they didn’t want to subject their property and employees to the danger presented by the natives.

    148. @The Grim Joker

      The crime rate was low in the islands because the British government used the rope and whip when blacks committed murder, rape and assault.

      Probably. And there’s a lesson to be learned there but current Europeans and Americans aren’t learning it.

      Why are these folks not immigrating to Africa ??

      The criminal ones probably wouldn’t want to end up there as the punishment is more sever than in European countries. They may even get lynched by the passersby if they engage in street crime; like tyre, petrol and match or get hacked to death by machetes. I knew of a well off Sudanese man whose son was sentenced to death for rape in Sudan so he paid a lot of money to get him out. Guess where he sent him? To Australia. And he had a lot more sons. Makes you wonder if all those other Sudanese flocking to Australia aren’t escaping from severe penalties or retribution by victims for crimes committed in their home country.

    149. ken_r says:

      The thesis is interesting that massive immigration owes something to the desire to decimate the black urban ghettos. The logic to it, especially in the given case of Palo Alto, is compelling.

      How might this apply to other countries such as Canada, the UK and Sweden, say? These societies have acted in the other direction entirely. They started with fairly homogeneous non-black (or brown) populations. They seem determined to import the problems, strife and crime that come hand-in-hand with “die-versity”.

    150. Loup-Bouc says:

      Ron Unz presents specious, biased arguments and misleading statistics to support his apparent assertion that American Blacks tend immensely more than other “racial” or ethnic American groups to commit violent and other serious crimes.

      First: Because of the biases of Ron Unz and likely-most readers of Unz Review, you need to know that I am “White” and 0.0% “Black,” 0.0% New World “Hispanic,” 0.0% “indigenous American,” 0.0% “East Asian,” 0.0% “South Asian,” 0.0% “Southeast Asian,” and 0.0% “Polynesian” (though, being part virtually-pure Magyar, I am part non-Mongoloid-race “near Asian”).

      Now my comment’s thrusts:

      Unz’s statistics do not address the issue of whether arrests, prosecutions, or convictions of Blacks prove actual guilt. Beyond argument, Blacks are arrested, prosecuted, and convicted immensely more than are non-Blacks. Unz cannot argue the contrary, since clearly his statistics support the proposition that Blacks are arrested, prosecuted, and convicted immensely more than are non-Blacks.

      But Unz does not observe that many violent crime convictions are utterly false.

      Non-race-addressed/non-ethnicity addressed, unassailable scholarly research has proved:
      * About 60% of murder convictions are false.
      * About 36% of rape convictions are false.
      See, E.G., Samuel R. Gross, Kristen Jacoby, Daniel J. Matheson, Nicholas Montgomery, EXONERATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES 1989 THROUGH
      2003, 95 Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology 523, at 529 (2005),
      https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=7186&context=jclc

      One needs no statistical evidence to argue that very often state and local “law enforcement” officials (cops) arrest Blacks falsely and that too often Blacks are prosecuted and convicted falsely. For many decades, myriad press reports, even video-records, have documented police arresting Blacks without sufficient, oft without any, legal cause — and even battering or killing the arrested or would-be-arrested Blacks. Especially, but not only in the South, for more than a century, many Blacks have been convicted of rapes never committed by anyone.

      So, of the percentage falsely convicted of murder or rape, surely a great majority are falsely-convicted Blacks.

      I do NOT argue that Blacks do not commit actual crimes more than others do. Blacks have been impoverished, oppressed, and non-educated, poorly educated, or mal-educated greatly more than others have. Black native intelligence is markedly less than that of Jews, East Asians, and non-Jewish Whites, and slightly less than that of New World Hispanics and indigenous Americans. Poverty, ignorance, bad education, and lesser intelligence correlate significantly with criminal behavior.

      See, E.G. these sources:

      * Rushton & Jensen, “Race and IQ: A theory-based review of the research in Richard Nisbett’s Intelligence and how to get it,” The Open Psychology Journal, 3, Article 9-35 (2010), https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2011-18869-001 [also published at this site https://benthamopen.com/contents/pdf/TOPSYJ/TOPSYJ-3-9.pdf ] (“Jewish (mean IQ = 113), East Asian (106), White (100), Hispanic (90), South Asian (87), African American (85), and sub-Saharan African (70)”)

      * Herrnstein & Murray, THE BELL CURVE (New York: Free Press 1994)

      * Rushton & Jensen, THIRTY YEARS OF RESEARCH ON RACE DIFFERENCES IN COGNITIVE ABILITY, Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 2005, V. 11, No. 2, 235-294 (Amer. Psychological Assoc.), https://www1.udel.edu/educ/gottfredson/30years/Rushton-Jensen30years.pdf, [Jews score highest in IQ testing, but other considerations also indicate that Jewish intelligence is highest; among such other considerations is brain size, the brain sizes of Jews and East Asians being greatest, and East Asian IQ being second greatest (and East Asian mean IQ is 106, versus Jewish mean IQ of 113, versus mean non-Jewish White IQ of 100)]

      * Arthur Jensen, BIAS IN MENTAL TESTING (THE FREE PRESS, Macmillan, NEW YORK 1980) at p.359 [“A cross various racial and social-class groups, the prevalence of delinquency is approximately the same at any given IQ level. …[I]f one controls for IQ, the marked racial and social-class differences in delinquency rates disappear. Minority racial and ethnic groups with mean IQs at or above the general population mean, such as Orientals and Jews, show correspondingly lower rates of delinquency to the same extent that minorities with mean IQs below the population average show correspondingly higher rates.”]

      See also, E.G., Arthur Jensen, “How Much Can We Boost IQ and Scholastic Achievement?” (Univ. of Calif., Berkeley, Originally published in Harvard Educational Review, Vol. 39, No. 1, Winter 1969, pages 1-123), this appears: “It is interesting that Jewish immigrants, whose offspring are usually found to have a higher mean IQ than the general population, show fewer disadvantageous reproductive conditions and have the lowest infant mortality rates of all ethnic groups, even when matched with other immigrant and native born groups on general environmental conditions (Graves et al., 1968).”

      But such considerations CANNOT PROVE: (a) that the ACTUAL Black violent crime rate is what Unz’s “statistics” indicate; or (b) that the relative frequency of ACTUAL Black CRIMES versus ACTUAL White, Asian, or Hispanic crimes is what Unz’s statistics indicate.

      My point is not that Blacks do not commit violent crimes more than others do. My point is that Unz’s arguments are logically, empirically, and statistically invalid and unreliable, even much false and surely specious. To prove his case, Unz needs much more, and much better, evidence — much more and much wider, valid, reliable proof.

    151. Loup-Bouc says:
      @Loup-Bouc

      Perhaps I ought reference a few other sources showing the rather high rate of false convictions:

      http://www.law.umich.edu/special/exoneration/Documents/Race_and_Wrongful_Convictions.pdf [specially relevant to false convictions of Blacks]

      https://time.com/wrongly-convicted/ [all “races”/”ethnicities”]

      https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/251115.pdf [all “races”/”ethnicities”]

    152. @Kali

      If these Africans you have interacted with have lived in Britain for many generations, that would suggest that selection effects have worked even more powerfully on them. Since much smaller numbers came before World War II, and immigration was more difficult, meaning that those who did come would (as a rule) be the more accomplished.

      It would also make it more likely for them to be of partially mixed race, a factor which will obviously affect the genetic component of any arguments about African personal characteristics.

      In general, blacks in Britain are probably slightly better than those in America due to certain aggravating environmental factors not being present there to the same extent (e.g., the long tradition of aggressive minority activism fostered by a certain community, something that has emerged only more recently in Europe). That said, the evidence shows that Britain’s African problem is still one of long standing. Or, as Enoch Powell noted in 1968:

      I am going to allow just one of those hundreds of people to speak for me:

      Eight years ago in a respectable street in Wolverhampton a house was sold to a Negro. Now only one white (a woman old-age pensioner) lives there. This is her story. She lost her husband and both her sons in the war. So she turned her seven-roomed house, her only asset, into a boarding house. She worked hard and did well, paid off her mortgage and began to put something by for her old age. Then the immigrants moved in. With growing fear, she saw one house after another taken over. The quiet street became a place of noise and confusion. Regretfully, her white tenants moved out.

      The day after the last one left, she was awakened at 7am by two Negroes who wanted to use her ‘phone to contact their employer. When she refused, as she would have refused any stranger at such an hour, she was abused and feared she would have been attacked but for the chain on her door. Immigrant families have tried to rent rooms in her house, but she always refused. Her little store of money went, and after paying rates, she has less than £2 per week. She went to apply for a rate reduction and was seen by a young girl, who on hearing she had a seven-roomed house, suggested she should let part of it. When she said the only people she could get were Negroes, the girl said, “Racial prejudice won’t get you anywhere in this country.” So she went home.

      The telephone is her lifeline. Her family pay the bill, and help her out as best they can. Immigrants have offered to buy her house – at a price which the prospective landlord would be able to recover from his tenants in weeks, or at most a few months. She is becoming afraid to go out. Windows are broken. She finds excreta pushed through her letter box. When she goes to the shops, she is followed by children, charming, wide-grinning piccaninnies. They cannot speak English, but one word they know. “Racialist,” they chant.

      • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    153. @Gleongelpi

      That’s an absurd and clearly wrong statement.

      If you get out around the USA — and I’ve lived in nearly ten States and visited more than forty States over the past approximately half-century since birth: direct observation will show that there’s a substantial but distinct minority of Hispanics in the USA who are mostly white.

      Fairly few US Hispanics are remotely “as white as me” (nearly 100% white European per genetic tests).

      Mexicans flooding into the USA apparently are less white European than earlier waves, being more commonly Indio from the interior and south nowadays.

      The typical or average Mexican is shown to be genetically around half white euro or a bit less.

      Then there is the fact that Hispanic immigration into the USA is substantially non-Mexican. Other major Hispanic immigrant groups — “legal” and illegal — are Puerto Rican, who are heavily African and/or native Indian (still concentrated in the Northeast and Florida), Guatemalans (heavily Indian and not very white at all), and Salvadorans (again not very white at all).

      Not saying they’re necessarily inherently better or worse than I am, just pointing out a readily visible fact.

      Portuguese and Spanish immigrants, who actually ARE mostly white European genetically, are a tiny fraction of the Hispanics living in the USA or coming here each year. And yeah I lived in Newark NJ, capital of the Portuguese and Galician diaspora outside Portugal/Brazil, but that’s highly atypical for the USA as a whole.

      Finally, speaking English doesn’t change a person’s genetics and biological nature (a nature that we think evolved to fit their climate and circumstances over a long period of time).

      We’re entitled to our own opinions, but not our own facts. Look at legal immigration stats about country of origin, and simply get out and walk around our cities and now suburbs. It’s a heavily nonwhite Hispanic country in the making, whether that’s good or bad on balance in anyone’s view.

    154. @John Regan

      Thank you so much for this. All my grandparents had to flee the cities where they were born and raised, worked hard, swept the sidewalk, taught their children English and ordered them not to speak anything else, attended church, chatted in the parks, paid taxes, refrained from having more kids they knew they couldn’t support, and bothered noone.

      My mother’s mother —daughter of LEGAL italian immigrants who loved this country — was mugged in the Bronx, near her home, by a Puerto Rican-looking “man” who punched her, knocked her down, and threatened to cut her throat if she didn’t give up her purse. That was the late 1960s. She never felt safe again, and they moved to NJ only a few months later, never to risk returning. It had zero to do with “more space” or “being able to buy a [email protected] (they never did). She was just another “racist” “white flight” statistic that garners no attention or sympathy today.

      My father’s mother — daughter of LEGAL Slavic immigrants who loved this country —also left NYC only to end up trapped in an increasingly filthy, hostile, chaotic, unsafe, and alien Hudson County, NJ. The place went majority Hispanic, with trash everywhere, and many neighbors went years without bothering to learn enough English to converse. She stayed for quite a while before giving up. She too fled elsewhere, in NJ with my parents, to be safe, welcome, and in western civilization again.

      Why are we such bitter haters and stereotypers, huh?

    155. @boogerbently

      °Dilution Theory” has been force-fed to us for well over half a century, culminating in the reasoning of Brown vs. Education (“The reason blacks are so stupid and violent is they are traumatized by the presence of blacks”- I shit you not)
      Meanwhile in actuality, black males presented with easier prey become roughly twice as criminal (fewer drug but more property offenses; source: Follow-Up Study on Housing Vouchers, end-60s), so dilution increases overall crime (and the black mothers reported sleeping better – seriously).

    156. @Loup-Bouc

      Notwithstanding any number of anecdotes from do-gooders, The Sentencing Project
      (i.e. not exactly the Klan) concluded that after correction for actual criminality blacks are stopped less often (even before Ferguson), convicted less often even by all-White juries (with the disparity greatest when perp and jury are black and the victim White) and receive lower sentences.
      As they had set out to prove the exact opposite, I commend them for their integrity.

      Equally idiotic is the assertion blacks are overrepresented among inmates because of “nonviolent drug offenses”. LaGriffe showed that raising the incarceration threshold RAISES the incarceration ratio … in the most backwoods hanging-judge districts (where you get the eights for spitting on the sidewalk) the average black is six times more likely to enjoy federal hospitality than the average White while in the cities (where gang rape-torture-murder is a misdemeanor as long as the victim is White) the ratio tops 30.
      IOW the more hideous the crime the higher the black overhang.

      Mr. Unz´numbers are even worse than whilom Simms´from when the Uniform Crime Report was useful (i.e. before the Flood). DC was the crime capital then, so bad, black and awash in $$$ (median income, spending per pupil, teacher pay, cops per capita) he had to treat it as an outlier.
      iirc Jerry found %blacks/murder rate r=0.77 and every conceivable liberal explantion |r|~0.2 but never >0.4.
      You seem not to understand Unz is not using racial crime stats – the UCR has been counting Hispanics, Jews and Arabs as “White” when they perpetrate but not when they victimate since times immemorial. The correlations are not affected by that.
      Indeed he is being deliberately British on r>0.8 being “quite remarkable”.
      For a multivariate problem like this +0.4 is “significant” and +0,6 “alarming”.
      +0,95 would be considered proof blacks commit every murder above background noise.
      “Correlation is not causation” – the textbook example is the first-rate correlation between murder rate and ice cream consumption (both correlate with ambient temperature and weekend).
      At least in this case it is reasonable to assume that murder does not cause blacks.

      Simms had useful racial crime data and gave black violence 10x the white, Hispanic (probably a different demographic then) ~5x, with the effect of urbanization reaching 8-9.
      For interracial violent crime black-on-white/white-on-black:
      Murder, 19x
      Mob assault (this includes “lynching”), 300x
      Rape, 1000x (most years there weren´t significant numbers of wob)

      – Like many others here I find the White line most interesting.
      The strong negative Hispanic is most easily explained by large-scale displacement of blacks.
      But what made the White so much less negative around the Crack Wars?
      Wiggering?
      Population/Behaviour tipping point?
      Or just an artefact?

      • Replies: @Loup-Bouc
      , @Loup-Bouc
    157. Loup-Bouc says:
      @Loup-Bouc

      In my main comment, I observed: “Especially, but not only, in the South, for more than a century, many Blacks have been convicted of rapes never committed by anyone.”

      Earlier in my main comment, I referenced a scholarly study’s finding that about 36% of rape convictions are false. Samuel R. Gross, Kristen Jacoby, Daniel J. Matheson, Nicholas Montgomery, EXONERATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES 1989 THROUGH
      2003, 95 Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology 523, at 529 (2005),
      https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=7186&context=jclc

      The false rape conviction rate does not address enough of the problem, which includes also false rape complaints, false-rape-charge-based arrests, false-rape-charge-based prosecutions, and plea bargains premised on false rape-charges. Scholarly studies indicate that the entire false-rape-claim/false-rape-charge problem is grave. Consider just the probable frequency of false rape accusations (apart from rape charges & rape-charge-based arrests, prosecutions, convictions, and plea bargains).

      Eugene J. Kanin, Ph.D., False Rape Allegations, Archives of Sexual Behavior, V. 23, No. 1 (1994), found a false rape-allegation rate of 41% (or 50%, see Appendix of same study), http://www.aals.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Bowen-Kanin-False-Rape-Empirical.pdf

      See also P. Rumney, False allegations of rape, Cambridge Law J., 65 (1) pp. 125-158 (2006), meta-analysis, UK, U.S., & other nations), http://eprints.uwe.ac.uk/6478/1/Download.pdf . At pp. 136-37, Rumney reports scholarly estimates of the percentage of false rape-accusations: mean = 22.083%, standard deviation 20.351. Rumney reports that one source indicates a false rape accusation rate of 90%. Rumney, supra, at at 137, referencing C.H. Stewart, ‘‘A Retrospective Survey of Alleged Sexual Assault Cases’’ (1981) Police Surgeon (which reported results involving a very small sample [N = 18, and result = 13/18].

      Compare: Is a woman’s word enough?, Oz Conservative, reporting a Washington D.C. study’s determination that 24% of rape charges were unfounded. (That source observes also the findings of Kanin, False Rape Allegations, supra.)

      Beyond doubt, Blacks suffer rape accusations markedly more than do Whites & Asians, perhaps not so much more than do New World Hispanics suffer false rape accusations. Such is another cause of doubting the significance, and also the validity/reliability, of Unz’s statistics.

      In my main comment, I observed: “Blacks have been impoverished, oppressed, and non-educated, poorly educated, or mal-educated greatly more than others have. Black native intelligence is markedly less than that of Jews, East Asians, and non-Jewish Whites, and slightly less than that of New World Hispanics and indigenous Americans. Poverty, ignorance, bad education, and lesser intelligence correlate significantly with criminal behavior.”

      I ought to have included weak, bad, or absent family-structure and socio-politcal/economic/law-enforcement persecution — persecution, oft-violent persecution, of Blacks. If a socio-ethnically circumscribed group suffers a combination of bad or absent education, oppression, grave persecution, poverty, weak or absent family-structure, and limited intelligence, that group’s members will commit crimes more than better-off groups will. See again, E.G., these sources:

      * Arthur Jensen, BIAS IN MENTAL TESTING (THE FREE PRESS, Macmillan, NEW YORK 1980) at p.359 [“A cross various racial and social-class groups, the prevalence of delinquency is approximately the same at any given IQ level. …[I]f one controls for IQ, the marked racial and social-class differences in delinquency rates disappear. Minority racial and ethnic groups with mean IQs at or above the general population mean, such as Orientals and Jews, show correspondingly lower rates of delinquency to the same extent that minorities with mean IQs below the population average show correspondingly higher rates.”]

      * Arthur Jensen, “How Much Can We Boost IQ and Scholastic Achievement?” (Univ. of Calif., Berkeley, Originally published in Harvard Educational Review, Vol. 39, No. 1, Winter 1969, pages 1-123): “It is interesting that Jewish immigrants, whose offspring are usually found to have a higher mean IQ than the general population, show fewer disadvantageous reproductive conditions and have the lowest infant mortality rates of all ethnic groups, even when matched with other immigrant and native born groups on general environmental conditions (Graves et al., 1968).”

      These considerations are pertinent, and significant, because Unz (and other Unz Review writers, like “Paul Kersey”) try to show that Blacks are genetically wired to commit crime. Many Blacks commit crimes because they suffer dire socioeconomic, sociopolitical, familial, and legal detriment and also lack intellectual and educational resources needed to improve their lot, and no one has shown, by any scientifically valid, reliable means, that Blacks commit crimes because they are genetically wired to do so.

      Therefore, as Jensen suggested, the solution may be partly quasi-eugenic: (a) Encourage successful, law-abiding Blacks to reproduce more and encourage problem Blacks to reproduce less. (b) Establish government-run, government-funded, government-sponsored, or government-promoted large-scale nongovernmental programs that will diminish the deprivations suffered by Blacks deprived merely because of the circumstances of their births.

      I admit that “(b)” would be a very difficult objective, but the reason is the U.S. and U.S. state governments corruption, the corruption of U.S. political systems, the pathological greed, sick biases, and psychopathy of the oligarchs who control U.S. governments, press, education, and politics and the regrettable stupidity and bad education of too many White common folks.

      • Replies: @nokangaroos
      , @anarchyst
    158. @E. Waldo Ralpherson

      – Well I for one do not carry a Slim Jim when “shopping for sweets” in the dead of night.
      – While we´re at the sweets, I did recognize the ingredients of purple drank; and you know what the shit does to the already undersize brain of the Uti Mungu.

      At least you should 😛

    159. Loup-Bouc says:
      @nokangaroos

      Your reply’s first paragraph is, at best, much false, much dependent upon invalid material, and wholly specious. Largely, your reply’s remaining content is, at best, blather.
      E.G. , many studies have shown that in both absolute and relative quantity, Blacks are incarcerated more than others.

      Though Wikipedia is, for some fields, unreliable, in one here-pertinent instance, Wikipedia is a sufficient source. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_States#Ethnicity

      Per that referenced Wikipedia source:

      % of U.S. % of incarcerated National
      population population incarceration rate
      White 64 39 450 per 100,000
      Hispanic 16 19 831 per 100,000
      Black 13 40 2,306 per 100,000

      According to the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) in 2013 black males accounted for 37% of the total male prison population, white males 32%, and Hispanic males 22%. White females comprised 49% of the prison population in comparison to black females who accounted for 22% of the female population. https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/p13.pdf

      I must attend pressing work. So, I shall not spend the greater time needed to collect other sources.

      Your reply’s remainder does not demand my response.

      Above in this response, and my other comments put in this thread, I have said all I need to say here (in this reply).

    160. Loup-Bouc says:
      @nokangaroos

      THE FOLLOWING TEXT CORRECTS MY EARLIER REPLY’S FORMAT PROBLEM CAUSED BY INADEQUATE ELECTRONIC DEVICE. THE FORMAT PROBLEM CREATED THIS MESS:

      % of U.S. % of incarcerated National
      population population incarceration rate
      White 64 39 450 per 100,000
      Hispanic 16 19 831 per 100,000
      Black 13 40 2,306 per 100,000

      ===================

      Your reply’s first paragraph is, at best, much false, much dependent upon invalid material, and wholly specious. Largely, your reply’s remaining content is, at best, blather.
      E.G. , many studies have shown that in both absolute and relative quantity, Blacks are incarcerated more than others.

      Though Wikipedia is, for some fields, unreliable, in one here-pertinent instance, Wikipedia is a sufficient source. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_States#Ethnicity

      Per that referenced Wikipedia source:

      In 2010, Whites were 64 % of the total U.S. populations, Blacks 13%, and Hispanics 16%. Whites were 39% of the total prison population (state, local and federal), Blacks 40%, and Hispanics 19%. The national incarceration rate was White 450 per 100,000, Black 2,306 per 100,000, Hispanics 831 per 100,000. [Figures derived from Breaking Down Mass Incarceration in the 2010 Census: State-by-State Incarceration Rates by Race/Ethnicity. Briefing by Leah Sakala. May 28, 2014. Prison Policy Initiative. Figures calculated with US Census 2010 SF-1 table P42 and the PCT20 table series.

      According to the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) in 2013 black males accounted for 37% of the total male prison population, white males 32%, and Hispanic males 22%. White females comprised 49% of the prison population in comparison to black females who accounted for 22% of the female population. https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/p13.pdf

      I must attend pressing work. So, I shall not spend the greater time needed to collect other sources.

      Your reply’s remainder does not demand my response.

      Above in this response, and my other comments put in this thread, I have said all I need to say here (in this reply).

      • Replies: @nokangaroos
      , @Loup-Bouc
    161. @Loup-Bouc

      With all due respect (=precious little):

      No one ever caught me saying “Believe the Woman”.
      Witness ID in general is well-nigh worthless – if the jurors are stupid, that´s not my fault.
      And a woman´s testimony is, for lack of testes, well … 😛

      But what´s your point?

      • Replies: @Loup-Bouc
    162. Loup-Bouc says:
      @nokangaroos

      to: nokangaroos, February 20, 2020 at 12:23 am

      Are you hallucinating?

      Where did I say anything respecting, or relying upon, “Believe the Woman”?

      Where did I say anything concerning “a woman’s testifying”?

      Where did I say anything that could create an issue involving a “Witness ID” or concerning whether “jurors are stupid”?

      And my point? I am sorry for your not being able to READ.

      I shall not reply to you again.

    163. TRM says:

      Hey Ron, is there any stats on crime vs no father household? Are young males from a fatherless home more likely to commit crime? White? Black? Yellow?

      Thanks

      • Replies: @nokangaroos
    164. anarchyst says:
      @Loup-Bouc

      YOU need to live among blacks instead of spouting your gibberish about how “socioeconomic factors” figure into black behavior. Black behavior is guided by DNA, NOT “environment”.

      I will “educate” you…

      Yes, there are a few blacks who “rise above” the typical black rabble, but they are few and far between.

      Blacks ARE “wired differently” and do have great difficulty living in a first-world society without “help” from the white majority that has established “social services” and “welfare” programs. Their DNA is responsible for their impulsive behavior and their inability to delay gratification or “thinking before acting”.

      Blacks are similar to children who need a firm, guiding hand and appropriate punishments to get them to “behave”.

      Blacks DO find it difficult to function in white societies where consensus, collaboration, and compromise are a way of life and are required in order to “get things accomplished”.

      Blacks thrive under a “strong man” dictatorial style of “government” where “status” is defined by “how close one sits to the chief”. The higher the status, the nearer one (is allowed) the proximity to the chief.

      All one has to do is observe the way African governments are run, even the governments that have adopted nominally “western” methods of operation.

      You see, on the African continent, life was pretty simple. Hunter-gatherers were able to avail themselves and their tribes of the abundant wildlife of the continent. When resources were depleted in one area, they could easily move on. Of course, they developed keen eyesight as well as effective “running skills” to be able to avoid being eaten by predators. Their “traditions” did not prohibit cannibalism (consumption of their enemies) which was prevalent on the continent.

      It took white men to locate and harvest the mineral wealth (gold, diamonds and other minerals) of the continent. African blacks had not a care in the world and had no need (or use) for the gold, silver, diamonds, or other mineral wealth beneath their feet.

      White men attempted to “educate” blacks. In fact, in most white-run societies, education was mandatory for African blacks.

      South African Apartheid was instituted in order to keep the normally-warring black tribes from slaughtering each other, as well as making it possible to institute a modern-day civil society. It is interesting to not, that despite (the evils of) “apartheid”, this system was able to “keep the peace” and provide a decent living for all concerned. In fact, there was an influx of blacks into South Africa as both jobs and food were plentiful. All that ended with the demise of “apartheid”.

      Blacks ARE different and should be accorded proper treatment, recognizing their differences. Anything less is detrimental both to them and us…

      • Replies: @Loup-Bouc
    165. melpol says:

      High excitability among blacks and Hispanics are responsible for the millions of unreported assaults in their habitats. High Testosterone is a contributing factor for domestic abuse and rape. Whites are cautioned never to argue with those who have poor impulse control.

    166. very impressive article, but I would add headers to introduce the different arguments. it is interesting that this article is 6 years old and still quite relevant. I should also add that there are many good arguments in the comments discussing the treatment of statistical method.

      TRM beat me to the punch requesting statistics showing the effects of households with no fathers on crime. the history of crime in Jamaica from 1962 to the present is very enlightening also.

    167. Loup-Bouc says:
      @anarchyst

      TO: anarchyst, concerning anarchyst’s reply of February 20, 2020 at 2:13 pm GMT

      Preface: I cannot spare time to proofread this reply. I apologize for any typing errors or editing glitches.

      I. You wrote:

      “It took white men to locate and harvest the mineral wealth (gold, diamonds and other minerals) of the continent. African blacks had not a care in the world and had no need (or use) for the gold, silver, diamonds, or other mineral wealth beneath their feet.”

      (a) Taking mineral wealth has been one of the worst evils of White men — an evil that rapes and poisons the land and the atmosphere and destroys the environment and has enslaved, actually or virtually, humans of every “race” and mass-murdered, with “wars,” raids, or “crusades” or with “realization” of “Manifest Destiny” or “The Doctrine of Discovery.”

      [MORE]

      (b) Never have most primitive or near-primitive peoples — Black or other, hunter-gatherer or other — “had not a care in the world.” The overwhelming preponderance struggled to survive, and many lost the struggle. Hence, E.G., the many war-bloodying East-to-West and North-to-South migrations of sundry peoples of Europe and Eurasia (Hun, Rus, Magyar, Turk, Tatar, Slav…….).

      II. You assume that I have not lived among Blacks. You wrote:

      “YOU need to live among blacks instead of spouting your gibberish about how ‘socioeconomic factors’ figure into black behavior.” ***

      “I will ‘educate’ you.”

      (a) First a couple minor corrections.

      I did not use the term “socioeconomic factors.” In that context, “factors” is bad (wrong, illiterate, and pretentious) diction. Also, I observed that the American Black’s troubles derive much from social, familial, economic, political, governmental difficulties, from oppression and persecution, from bad or absent education, and from limited intelligence, not merely socioeconomic misfortune.

      The term “spouting” does not fit written language — except in bad, pseudo-poetic jargon of the virtually illiterate.

      The term “gibberish” does not fit a clear, coherent, scholarly presentation (mine) of documented statistics and well-established historical facts. I note that you do not submit even one scholarly support for your clearly racist assertions, all of which are wholly false and surely not supported by any valid, reliable statistical study or valid, reliable scientific proof.

      (b) The here-directly-pertinent matter is that I (an American White) HAVE lived among Blacks. For three years (starting 61 years ago) I lived in a largely Black section of west Philadelphia (Pennsylvania) — “Powellton Village” — and then for another three years (starting 57 years ago), I live in a Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Black Ghetto (where the White population was markedly less than 1%).

      During two of the second two years of the first three-year period, I had 22-years-old a Black male roommate, a College-educated social-worker who, previously, had lived only in a small north New Jersey town, Boonton (New Jersey), which, then, had a population likely a bit lesser than 8000 (its 1990 population having been 8,343, per the 1990 Unite States Census [see sub-census “New Jersey Census,” Table 1. Summary of General Characteristics of Persons: 1990, https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1990/cp-1/cp-1-32-1.pdf ).

      I joined him, once, in visiting his parents. Their neighborhood was very modest, quiet, clean, calm. Their neighbors were neighborly. His parents were moderately educated, soft-spoken, and genteel despite their very modest economic means and lack of college education or experience of “lofty” society.

      The town’s non-Hispanic Whites were its majority-subpopulation; but is Black minority was nearly large as its White population — 37% (Black). The town had about 3% Puerto Rican and about 1% East Asian. Though the town, generally, was poor-to-lower-middle-class (mostly working poor), its entirety. I saw — and my roommate reported — no homeless. My roommate said the town was boring, partly because it was very quiet and its newspaper rarely reported any violent crime.

      In Philadelphia’s largely-Black Powellton Village (where I lived) and in the Philadelphia Black Ghetto where I lived, I noticed no violent crime except an occasional brief fisticuffs scuffle in the Hi-Ho bar that I frequented with my local friends, some Black, most White.

      The only noticeable crimes were (i) prostitution, (ii) use or peddling of various kinds of illegal dope (barbiturates, heroine, cocaine, marijuana, hashish, ……), and (iii) rather frequent police brutality and police violation of civil liberties (both of which police crimes I suffered twice, once with my Black roommate, clearly because he was Black and I was walking with him at about 1:15 AM during a cold, snowy January night).

      Twice when I lived in Philly’s Powellton Village, I had a Black woman lover — one a Masters of Arts student, the other a waitress. Neither was a drunk, dope-user, or violent person. The waitress was an intelligent, loving mother of a serious, gentle, 11-years-old boy.

      I never feared walking the streets of Powellton Village or the Black Ghetto where I lived. I did feel a bit uncomfortable in a certain North Philadelphia Black Ghetto slum when I drove a cab through that area — where, once, I found myself stopping my cab [I drove cab for about a year] to save a Black teen girl who was being chased around some cars by a screaming, middle-aged Black man whose penis was erect and protruding from the fly of his pants.

      Despite the angry complaint of the greatly-bejeweled, mink-coat-wearing, old White woman passenger I was transporting, I exited my cab, grabbed the man’s shoulder so he would turn to face me, and I kicked his groin. He collapsed. I grabbed the girl, put her in my cab, took her to the nearest police station, told the desk sergeant what had occurred, and hen promised he would return the girl safely to her parents (the assaulting man not having been her father or other relative).

      But I felt a bit uncomfortable also when I drove cab in a certain largely-Irish White ghetto of Philly, where the Irish gang-violence was pronounced as it was in the north Philly Black ghetto where I encountered the teen girl being chased by the likely-rape-intending Black man.

      You offer no legitimate proof that “Blacks” are “wired” differently from Whites and that the Blacks’ “wiring” makes them tend to be criminals. You offer mere acid excretions of your sorry hate.

      III. Like most White-supremacist/anti-Black-racists, you know little or nothing of critical genetic/social/historical differences that distinguish the perhaps-many sub-species of Blacks — those of our time and recent history, and those of ancient times.

      Ancient Egypt had Black pharaohs. Ancient Egypt’s lower kingdom was largely Black, that Black population apparently related to later peoples denominated Ugandan. Ancient Uganda’s art and music were highly sophisticated, the music and it system complex as that of India or the contrapuntal music of 15th-18th Century Europe.

      Ungandan Blacks are genetically distant from Nigerians and other non-Berber Blacks of West Africa — just as are Kikuyus, the main Black population of Kenya and nearby other states.

      Somalis and Berbers are genetically different from Kikuyus, Ugandans, Nigerians and most other non-Berber West Africa peoples, and some anthropologists argue that, like Black Ethiopians, Somalis and Berbers are not “Negroid.”

      The justly-famous Maasai may, too, be non-“Negroid.” Surely, like Ugandans, Ethiopians, Somalis, and Berbers, they are genetically distinct from Nigerians and other non-Berber West Africans.

      Though Zulu have lived in eastern South Africa for some time, near-all sources state that the Zulu originated in lower Egypt, and are not genetically kin of the central and south-central African Blacks who migrated to South Africa.

      [I recall reading (sometime in the year 2000) an Encyclopedia Britannica (a multi-volume edition) entry indicating that, initially, Zulus migrated to souther Egypt from India. If my memory is correct, Zulu are genetically unrelated to ANY Black African people. I do not, now, have access to the complete (multi-volume) Encyclopedia Britannica. So, I cannot confirm my memory.]

      Though Berbers have been active, vicious warriors, the Maasai — lion hunters — are peaceful. Berbers and Maasai are pastoral, but Berbers are markedly nomadic, while, for centujries, Maasai have herded their cattle just on a huge tract of ancestral land.

      Kikuyus are, mostly, farmers, as are Ugandans and Ethiopians. [In Ethiopia, the largely hunter-gatherer people — the Chabu — are not people denoted “Ethiopian,” who (Ethiopian people) are called, also, Habäsa, Habesha, Abesha, or Abyssinian.

      Nigerians are pastoral, agrarian, and, far less, hunter-gatherers.

      Zulu are warriors, but live on homesteads and are pastoral-agrarian, and, far less, hunter-gatherers.

      Berber, Ugandan, Kikuyu, Somai, and Maasai mean IQs are markedly higher than those of Nigerian and other non-Berber West African Blacks and Blacks of Central Africa. See, E.G., my (February 19, 2020 at 3:05 am GMT) main comment’s references citing & quoting Jensen & others.

      III. You wrote: “South African Apartheid was instituted in order to keep the normally-warring black tribes from slaughtering each other, as well as making it possible to institute a modern-day civil society. It is interesting to not, that despite (the evils of) ‘apartheid’, this system was able to ‘keep the peace’ and provide a decent living for all concerned. In fact, there was an influx of blacks into South Africa as both jobs and food were plentiful. All that ended with the demise of ‘apartheid.”

      That assertion would be just risibly false (proved false by myriad documents, judicial and U.N. testimonies, and documentary films, news-source accounts, and a notable number of legitimate criminal convictions of Black-torturing Afrikaners), were it not also viciously White-supremacist-racist propaganda so disgusting that is beyond what my polite language can denote. I shall not waste my time on addressing that assertion.

      • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    168. @Loup-Bouc

      – Do not use wiki as a source here, except for black humor.

      – The numbers do show a gross racial disparity … far too few blacks are in the slammer.
      Which is to be expected:
      o Homicide clearing rate in Chicago is 13% and falling – Whites do not profit from witness intimidation and No Snitchin.
      o In the same Chicago the Obongo´s legacy is to mandate “equality of outcome”
      read: Whites go to da Big House for traffic infractions whenever there are “too many”
      black rapists and murderers i.e. always. To achieve true parity littering would have to be added.

      Again, what´s the point?

    169. Loup-Bouc says:
      @Loup-Bouc

      In my comment posted February 19, 2020 at 10:49 pm GMT [which comment replied to nokangaroos’s comment of February 19, 2020 at 9:42 pm GMT (which replied to my comments of February 19, 2020 at 3:05 am GMT and February 19, 2020 at 3:47 am GMT)], I put among else, these statistics:

      In 2010, Whites were 64 % of the total U.S. populations, Blacks 13%, and Hispanics 16%. Whites were 39% of the total prison population (state, local and federal), Blacks 40%, and Hispanics 19%. The national incarceration rate was White 450 per 100,000, Black 2,306 per 100,000, Hispanics 831 per 100,000. [Figures derived from Breaking Down Mass Incarceration in the 2010 Census: State-by-State Incarceration Rates by Race/Ethnicity. Briefing by Leah Sakala. May 28, 2014. Prison Policy Initiative. Figures calculated with US Census 2010 SF-1 table P42 and the PCT20 table series.]

      According to the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) in 2013 black males accounted for 37% of the total male prison population, white males 32%, and Hispanic males 22%. White females comprised 49% of the prison population in comparison to black females who accounted for 22% of the female population. https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/p13.pdf

      Today, 20 February 2020, I noted that I failed to include a “link” that would open the web-page bearing the source of the first set of total-population verus prison-population and incarceration-rate statistics. That source is Breaking Down Mass Incarceration in the 2010 Census: State-by-State Incarceration Rates by Race/Ethnicity. Briefing by Leah Sakala. May 28, 2014. Prison Policy Initiative. Here is the missing link: https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/rates.html

    170. Bookish1 says:
      @Loup-Bouc

      It sounds like that same old coveluted hogwash I heard over and over back in the 60s. Get over it.

    171. Loup-Bouc says:

      In others of my comments posted here (under Ron Unz’s article “Race and Crime in America”), I argued that Ron Unz’s statistics were invalid/unreliable and his statistics-based propositions were specious for several reasons. I argued also that Blacks are not genetically wired to commit crimes.

      I put several reasons indicating that Mr. Unz’s statistics were invalid and unreliable.

      One reason was that his statistics did not account that many convicted Blacks were convicted on false premises. I supplied proofs — including, but no only, proofs based on DNA evidence. See my comments of February 19, 2020 at 3:05 am GMT & February 19, 2020 at 3:47 am GMT.

      [MORE]

      Among sundry other reasons, one other was implicit in several of my comments posted under the same Ron Unz article: Much Black crime is explained by our society’s treatment of Blacks. I did NOT, and do NOT, mean that such crimes are somehow justified by our society’s treatment of Blacks — though some theft-crimes may have been forgivable and excusable, since a truly starving person may have no option but to steal to eat, especially if she is starving because of society’s unconscionably cruel treatment of her.

      One such unconscionably cruel treatment is society’s wrongful conviction and imprisonment of Blacks — E.G., for rapes never committed. COMPARE my comments of February 19, 2020 at 3:05 am GMT & February 19, 2020 at 3:47 am GMT & February 19, 2020 at 10:04 pm GMT & February 19, 2020 at 10:49 pm GMT & February 21, 2020 at 12:47 am GMT.

      Suppose a Black man, “Joe,” is arrested, prosecuted, and convicted in Alabama — on premises of false charges that the police and prosecution know are false (or ought to know are false and recklessly disregard the likelihood of their falsehood). Poor, Black, Joe is represented by a Public Defender who lacks adequate skill, knowledge , and intelligence and botches the defense partly because she (the Public Defender) is burdened with a case-load of magnitude greater than any lawyer could handle.

      Joe is convicted. After enduring a 12-year-long imprisonment, Joe is paroled. He cannot find a job, because he is “on parole,” destitute, and Black — and stuck in Alabama. He has no family. He is starving and homeless. His parole officer revokes his parole. When, finally, Joe is release for having served a full sentence, still Joe cannot find a job. Again he is starving and homeless. He robs a food mart and is caught, charged, prosecuted, and convicted. How does society not bear a substantial part — if not all — of the fault?

      Actually, the problem is worse.

      With good cause, many poor ghetto Black youths feel hopeless soon as they learn and comprehend the history of the legal system’s horrendous treatment of their kind. That treatment has NOT been confined to ordinary “law enforcement” activity, criminal judicial process, and “correctional” systems created to “reform” convicts and deter “recidivism.” It has extended to many, many cases of Blacks never arrested for charges that were actually criminal.

      Even now-days, people — poor Blacks, more than others — are jailed for not paying debts. The jailing is premised on asserted “contempt of court.”

      Earlier, such practices were far worse, and much more sinister and corrupt, in cases involving complaints put against Blacks — and ONLY in cases put against Blacks.

      The seminal case is Bailey v. Alabama, 219 U.S. 219 (1911), https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=16688171331174227306&q=Bailey+v.+Alabama,+219+U.S.+219+(1911)&hl=en&as_sdt=6,38&as_vis=1 .

      In the Bailey case, the U.S. Supreme Court reversed Bailey v. State (Alabama Supreme Court, 1911), see page 75 at
      https://books.google.com/books?id=ockKAAAAYAAJ&pg=PR1&lpg=PR1&dq=Volume+161+cases+argued+and+determined+in+the+Supreme+Court+of+Alabama+1908-1909+Supreme+Court+of+Alabama&source=bl&ots=YFchV9edxq&sig=01adx6lIBRCsGXpHRpQAq_besQc&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjZ-pugh_LYAhVN_mMKHRcmDkMQ6AEIJzAA#v=onepage&q=Bailey&f=false

      The Alabama Supreme Court had upheld an order denying habeas corpus to Alonso Bailey (a Black), convicted by a Montgomery County Alabama justice of the peace. The charge was violation of this statute:

      Any person who, with intent to injure or defraud his employer, enters…a contract in writing for the performance of any act of service, and thereby obtains money…from such employer, and with like intent, and without just cause, and without refunding such money…, refuses or fails to perform such act or service must…be punished by a fine in double the damage suffered by the injured party, but not more than $300, one-half of said fine to go to the county and one-half to the party injured…. And the refusal or failure of any person who enters into such contract…to cultivate such land or refund such money…without just cause shall be prima facie evidence of the intent to injure his employer…or defraud him. [Emphasis added by me.]

      Bailey had entered a contract that provided that he would do farm-work for 12 months and be paid $12.00 per month. The contract provided also that he receive a $15.00 advance that would be amortized by deductions from his monthly salary. Bailey received the advance.

      Bailey became ill or just too weary to work out the contract. He failed to report for work. He could not replay the $15.00 advance. Because of the statute, he was presumed (without actual evidence) to have INTENDED, when he entered the contract, to defraud his employer.

      The court sentenced Bailey to pay a fine of thirty dollars and the costs, and “in default thereof to do hard labor for twenty days in lieu of said fine, and one hundred and sixteen days on account of said costs, to make restitution to the plaintiff Riverside Company (the employer, a plantation owner), which you injured and defrauded.” Riverside Company was the employer, a plantation owner.

      Virtually penniless, Bailey faced performing hard farm-labor for one hundred thirty six days — and more — for the plaintiff, Riverside Company, without pay, and in conditions not much unlike what work-detail Jews suffered at Auschwitz.
      http://www.encyclopediaofalabama.org/article/h-1346
      http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/45a/618.html
      https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02887267
      http://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/disp_textbook.cfm?smtID=2&psid=3179
      https://www.google.com/search?hs=cS1&q=pictures+of+1900s+Alabama+peonage+workers&tbm=isch&source=univ&client=opera&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjyy5zlzeHnAhV6HjQIHQfND8MQsAR6BAgHEAE&biw=1024&bih=736

      The United States Supreme Court reversed the Alabama Supreme Court’s decision. The United States Supreme Court held that Bailey’s sentence and the Alabama peonage system violated:
      (a) the 13th Amendment of the United States Constitution (which 13th Amendment abolished slavery and involuntary servitude)
      and
      (b) the United States Congress’s Act of March 2, 1867 (Rev. Stat. §§ 1990, 5526), which provided that “all laws of any State, by virtue of which any attempt should be made ‘to establish, maintain, or enforce, directly or indirectly, the voluntary or involuntary service or labor of any persons as peons, in liquidation of any debt or obligation, or otherwise,’ shall be null and void.”

      In holding so, the United States Supreme Court observed:

      “What the State may not do directly it may not do indirectly. If it cannot punish the servant as a criminal for the mere failure or refusal to serve without paying his debt, it is not permitted to accomplish the same result by creating a statutory presumption which upon proof of no other fact exposes him to conviction and punishment.”

      The peonage system used a phony criminal law to force Blacks to work for years without pay for plantation owners, mining corporations, and other private firms that thrived on use of free, forced hard labor of Blacks.

      Even today, many Blacks have not forgotten such Jim Crow devices that kept Blacks in slavery long after the end of the Civil War.

      The peonage system was not the only such slavery device. Some devices were less covert — even rather transparent.

      New Jersey banned importation of slaves in 1788, but forbade free Blacks from elsewhere from settling in New Jersey. In the first two decades after the Revolutionary War, many northern states rapidly abolished slavery. But slaves were widely used in New Jersey’s agriculture and at its ports.

      New Jersey was the last Northern state to abolish slavery.

      An 1804 New Jersey statute & subsequent laws freed children born after the law was passed. Blacks born to slave mothers after 4 July 1804 had to serve lengthy apprenticeships to the owners of their mothers. Black women were freed at age 21, but Black men were not emancipated until age 25.

      After 1846, slaves born before those laws (of 1788 or 1804, supra) were considered indentured servants apprenticed for life — even if their lives ended decades after the Civil War.

      Although at first New Jersey allowed free Blacks to vote, the legislature disenfranchised them in 1807, an exclusion that lasted until 1875.

      By 1830, two-thirds of the slaves remaining in the North were held by masters located in New Jersey. New Jersey “abolished” slavery in 1846; but the abolition-statute qualified the abolition by redefining former slaves as apprentices who were “apprenticed for life” to their New Jersey masters.

      So, in New Jersey, slavery did not truly end until decades after 1865 (decades after U.S. Secretary of State Seward confirmed, in December 1865, that the 13th Amendment had been ratified). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_slavery_in_New_Jersey#Abolition_of_slavery

      Such history (the peonage system’s illegal imprisonment of Blacks and Black slavery and its continuation even in the North decades after the Civil War ended) — that history will die hard among American Blacks, as will American Blacks’s gnawing, even understandably angry, resentment of that history. Combined with the frequency of false prison sentences imposed on Blacks, that history explains much Blacks’ disdainful disregard of criminal laws.

      Am I suggesting that we forgive actual Black criminals their crimes? Absolutely NOT — just as I do not endure a Black’s angering at me or treating me contemptuously or impolitely though I have never participated in any aspect of Jim Crow practices and certainly have never enslaved any Black (or anyone else), but have spent much time and effort working to ensure the civil rights and civil liberties of Blacks (and everyone else).

      As was my point of several others of my comments posted under Ron Unz’s article “Race and Crime in America,” my point here is that neither Ron Unz nor anyone has proved, or can prove, that Blacks are genetically wired to be criminals. Blacks are NOT so genetically wired.

    172. @Loup-Bouc

      If I am not mistaken, your experience living in black ghettos is from more than 50 years ago. You were much younger and could handle yourself well, as could Anarchyst in his time there. I doubt you’d want to go live there now in your old age, and if you’d stayed longer you’d have probably tired of it. It sure can be exciting for a few years when you’re young but it wears you down after a while and eats on your nerves. I’ve even known some very tough black guys who were big and large and well respected on the mean streets in those days who themselves got tired of it all and couldn’t handle any more the wildness of the youths of more recent times. As far as personal security goes, it’s far safer for an old white man or woman to live in an exclusively middle class white neighbourhood than in a black ghetto, especially these days.

      • Replies: @Loup-Bouc
    173. Loup-Bouc says:
      @Commentator Mike

      TO: Commentator Mike, Re: his reply post of February 21, 2020 at 6:36 am GMT

      How very presumptuous you are. And how very fact-free in your clinging to your biases.

      Though I am 79, I have the health and vigor of a 30-years-old. And my Aikido black belt does not hang on a hook in a back closet.

      Still, now, as I near 80, I can walk fearlessly into any Black Ghetto bar and win every pool game — and blues-dance hot with the best big mamas — just as I did 60 years ago in the Hi Ho Bar back in Philly.

      I know a good surgeon who would render you a brain-transplant, buddy.

      Cheers.

      • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    174. @JI

      And how, pray tell, have those Republicans, who presumably were elected with substantial support from “law and order” whites shown their gratitude to aforementioned voters?

    175. @Rudy Weitz

      The wife of a DEA agent stationed in Charleston, SC once intimated to me in the mid nineties that this “numinous Jewish negro Chief Greenberg” had a rather large stinky and dirty basket of laundry in his closet.

    176. @Loup-Bouc

      Still, now, as I near 80, I can walk fearlessly into any Black Ghetto bar and win every pool game

      LOL, I could almost believe you but for winning every pool game? Nobody wins every pool game. If true it doesn’t say much for your opponents.

      • Replies: @Loup-Bouc
    177. Loup-Bouc says:
      @Commentator Mike

      TO: Commentator Mike, Re: his reply post of February 21, 2020 at 7:34 pm GMT

      Fascinating psychological bent: totally fact-free biases throughout your apprehensions of everything not fully consistent with your prejudiced perception.

      In my late teens and early twenties, my income derived from (a) performing “classical” music, (b) driving a cab (which I ceased doing early 1961), and (c) being a pool shark (mostly in the Hi Ho Bar of the edge of Powellton Village, Philly PA). Some pool-game opponents were damned good. But always I won much more than they.

      [Now I suffer the misfortune of being a law professor and a physician. But still I love the game of pool and could not live without a heavy daily dose of the music of Johann Sebastian Bach.]

      [MORE]

      I confess that my long-shot eye was never very good. I bank-shot well, shot excellent combinations, and blocked opponents’ shots masterfully (without blocking my own). The last (shot-blocking) sometimes led to my being threatened physically. But my two good friends — Walter, a 6’6″ Black construction-worker, and “Bull” (Bill Powers), a shanty Irish ex-Iron-hod carrier, ex-Marine, ex-boxer, electrical engineer, and poet) protected me.

      I taught Bull music for Bull’s trying to teach me boxing. Later I learned Aikido, earned a black belt (in a dojo that taught painfully realistic self-defense), and ceased fearing physical attacks. I continue to practice Aikido with other Aikidokas in a northwestern Oregon dojo.

      You did not notice (because of your reading skill deficiency? or your bias-clouded sight?) an interesting fact of one of the sentences I wrote in my post replying to your first post replying to my comments: “Still, now, as I near 80, I can walk fearlessly into any Black Ghetto bar and win every pool game — and blues-dance hot with the best big mamas — just as I did 60 years ago in the Hi Ho Bar back in Philly.”

      In Philly of 60 years ago, as in all or near-all other states, one could not purchase alcoholic beverages (in a liquor store, a bar, or anywhere else) unless one was at least 21 years old. Since I am nearing 80 (and I said I am 79), in 1960, I was 19 year old. I expected that you would make a point of the legal implication. You did not.

      Back then, Philadelphia had many “blue laws” — the booze purchase law I noted above, a law prohibiting business activities on Sundays, certain laws governing what women could wear in certain places….. I did not respect blue laws. I drank in the High Ho Bar when I was 19 & 20. I did not fear arrest, because no cop ever entered the Hi Ho Bar except White cops who entered to collect bribes, just as they extorted bribes from many Black businesses in Black or mostly Black neighborhoods of Philly.

      • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    178. @Loup-Bouc

      I wouldn’t have expected that they cared about minimum drinking age or licencing laws in such bars anyway, and it’s not that I don’t have experience of them. I’ve seen cops in uniform walking in for bribes in many an illegal after-hours bar, plainclothes cops collecting cash from dealers working for them re-selling busted drugs, and whatever else that goes on. And spirits weren’t served by the shot but by the glass-full from bottles under the bar as vans delivered what was stolen from off-licences so that the profits went to the criminals and not the brewery companies. And diving under tables when pool balls start flying all over aimed at people’s heads, pool cues broken in half and used to beat someone over a meaningless dispute, and a lot more and worse. So I survived, some did not. What’s that to brag about? And the kinds of fights I’ve seen in such places with people attacked from behind without any warning, bottles flying across the room and breaking into someone’s face, swords and shotguns used, I doubt martial arts skills would have helped much. And if you beat someone up, they’d sure be coming back with a loaded gun, or waiting for you around some corner. Even then I used to tell other whites not to frequent such places and many sensible blacks avoided them too. You’re welcome to go back and visit such bars in your old age but they hold no more attraction for me, none whatsoever.

      • Replies: @Loup-Bouc
    179. Loup-Bouc says:
      @Commentator Mike

      TO: Commentator Mike, respecting his post of February 21, 2020 at 10:31 pm GM

      Okay. Now you’re talkin’.

      Look, my whole point is that crime frequency does not correlate to genetics — except to the extent that psychopathy MAY derive from some kind of genetic predisposition fostered by specific environmental influences, which (psychopathy, psychopathy-predispositioning genes, and psychopathy-predisposition-fostering environmental influences) surely do NOT depend on RACE.

      Please know that I dislike, greatly, sundry behavioral tendencies typical of too many Blacks.

      I despise “rap” and “hip hop” and certain kinds of too-typical ghetto Black speech (in which foul words are used as if hyper-frequent errant punctuation).

      Also, I am a beyond-avid pro football (NFL) enthusiast (watch every game shown on TV). But I cannot bear the end-zone celebratory antics that Black players began perhaps 15 years ago. Childish. Unprofessional. Intrusive. Tedious. Oft-disgusting.

      Give me players like the great Jim Brown, a real professional, who, after completing spectacular runs, would rise from the ground slowly, calmly, quietly, and go on, without ado, to the next play or to the sideline.

      Certain White behavior annoys or angers me, too. But that is not pertinent here.

      • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    180. anonymous[145] • Disclaimer says:

      “Racist” is an anti-white slur.

      Noone calls homogeneous nonwhite countries and communities ‘racist nationalist supremacist’ or demands they ‘diversify’. They are run for the benefit of their people, not according to abstract globalist ideologies like ‘anti racism’ ‘diversity’.

      ‘Racism’ would have prevented Alice Lotter from being raped with knives and broken bottles in all orifices for hours, having her teeth smashed out and breasts cut off, all while alive and while her mother Helen listened in the next room.

      ‘Racism’ would have prevented Channon Christian and Christopher Newsom from being kidnapped, gang raped (both of them), sexually tortured and mutilated, and stuffed into garbage bags to suffocate to death.

      ‘Anti racism’ and ‘diversity’ are not a priority in any nonwhite country or community, totaling 90% of the globe. Protecting their children’s future is. It’s time we do the same. America First. Ron Unz and Nick Fuentes are our guys.

    181. @Loup-Bouc

      L-B,

      Of course there’s some of that lawlessness in the underclass of the whites race too, and I’ve seen it among the Irish, Sicilians, Calabrese, Corsicans, etc., but it really is more pronounced, extreme and mindless among the coloureds. Yeah, rap has really started to irritate me, and white rappers too.

      The debate here is on the causes: you weigh more on the environmental, others on the genetic. I don’t care much either way; my concern is with the safety and security of everyday people. And prejudice does help there – it is something acquired over time based on past experience and statistics. I sure wish things weren’t like that but that’s the way it is.

      • Replies: @Loup-Bouc
      , @Loup-Bouc
    182. Hypatia says:

      Ron,

      How do you explain the rather large crime rate in Latin America? Culture?

      • Replies: @the grand wazoo
    183. Loup-Bouc says:
      @Commentator Mike

      TO: Commentator Mike, re: your reply of February 22, 2020 at 6:13 am GMT

      I cannot spare time to proofread this reply. I apologize for any typing errors I commit or editing-glitches I miss (hence, do not correct).

      Alas, you have not budged much, or perhaps any degree.

      (1) Ron Unz’s crime statistics — and al such crime statistics — are invalid/unreliable. They do not account:

      (a) the extent of false charges, false arrests, false prosecutions, and false convictions [see my earlier comments addressing those matters]

      (b) the number false charges, false arrests, false prosecutions, and false convictions wrought against Blacks versus the number leveled against non-Blacks [again see my earlier comments addressing such matters]

      [MORE]

      (c) the environmental influences that MAY conduce an individual to commit certain species of crime

      (d) the genetic configurations that MAY perhaps PREDISPOSE an individual to commit certain species of crime if the individual experiences certain environmental conditions that MAY conduce such predispositions to cause the individual to commit such crime(s)

      Ron Uz’s statistics are simple raw mono-variate relative frequency numbers. They tell NOTHING of causation, hence NOTHING of whether the tested variable (“race”) is a causative influence of crime-commission.

      Multiple regression analysis would render SOME index of a POSSIBLE “race”/crime-incidence causative relationship. But such method cannot free the matter of substantial doubt — because it cannot account all possible causative variables. Bayesian probability calculus, too, would render SOME index of a POSSIBLE “race”/crime-incidence causative relationship — especially if it accounts, among else, the results of thoroughgoing multiple regression analysis.

      Among critical “race”/crime-tendency considerations — OTHER THAN mere crime-commission frequency and OTHER THAN (external) environment— are these few (of many) biological/anatomical matters:

      (1) “native” intelligence, indicated by, E.G., IQ testing (if the testing includes, and emphasizes, non-verbal testing, like shape-comparison/choice-of-inconsistent-shape) and brain size

      (2) mean testosterone level, mean normal adrenal-hormones levels, mean triiodothyronine level versus mean reverse triiodothyronine level

      (3) mean muscularity level, especially relative to considerations (1) & (2)

      (4) mean puberty age

      (5) mean quality of genitalia and, in females, mean breast-size

      I hasten to repeat: Those are only a few such considerations that MAY be causative indices.

      But neither multiple regression nor Bayesian probability calculus can determine causation — at least because of the problem of prior probability, in the case of Bayesian probability calculus, or unavoidable subjectivity (E.G., in choice/definition/weighting of variables), in the case of multiple regression [which subjectivity problem is essentially the same as the Bayesian probability prior probability problem and also infects Bayesian “calculation” of variable-values, the “V”s of P(X∣V1)P(V2∣X&V1)…etc, and P(not-X∣V1)P(V2∣not-X&V1)…etc].

      See:

      * Leonard R. Jaffee, Of Probativity and Probability: Statistics, Scientific Evidence, and the Calculus of Chance At Trial, 46 Univ. of Pittsburgh Law Review 925 (1985)

      * Leonard R. Jaffee, Prior Probability—A Black Hole in the Mathematician’s View of the Sufficiency and Weight of Evidence, 9 Cardozo Law Review 967 (1988)

      Those two works focus on the problem of using statistical analyses as litigation proof. But both works expose also the impossibility of conclusive, even substantially reliable, statistical proof of causation in ANY field.

      The former [Of Probativity and Probability: Statistics, Scientific Evidence…] addresses the deficiencies of both Bayesian probability calculus and all forms of relative frequency statistic, including regression analysis. The other [Prior Probability—A Black Hole…] treats near-exclusively the problem of Bayesian prior probability.

      Both Bayesian probability calculus and multiple regression analysis cannot account validly matters such as (E.G.) these:

      (i) What is “crime” or “violent crime”?

      (ii) What is crime frequency?

      (iii) Which “criminal tendencies” are more significant or deserve greater weighting of their incidence or relative incidence?

      Consider that, near-exclusively, non-Blacks cause and prosecute illegal or otherwise morally wrongful wars or other forms of similar mass lethal violence. If the criminals kill millions in illegal or wrongful wars and claim a motive of faux “national security” or purely greed-driven “national interest” or a greed-driven “national interest”-determined faux-humanitarian motive, do we exclude such crime from the “rase”/crime-tendency calculation? If so, why — other than a complex of morally illegitimate biases?

      Consider that all or near-all “ordinary” mass-murderers are White. I mean, E.G., Harold Shipman, Belle Gunness, Ed Gein, John Wayne Gacy, Aileen Wuornos, Jeffrey Dahmer, Ted Bundy, H.H. Holmes.

      Ought we include GRAND mass murderers like Dwight D. Eisenhower, Lyndon Johnson (a psychopath), Richard Nixon (maybe a psychopath), Henry Kissinger (an outrageously narcissistic psychopath), George H.W. Bush (a psychopath), Bill Clinton (a psychopath), George W. Bush (an idiotic foolish morally-deficient tool of Dick Cheney (a psychopath), Obama (another outrageously narcissistic psychopath), and Trump (a childish, weak-ego, frightened near-psychopath)? Those “gentlemen” were WHITE — all but one, a non-Jewish WHITE.

      Consider that many effectively non-war violent crimes do not involve direct violence. I mean, E.G., financial and environmental crimes or the war-materiel-production industries crimes of being accomplices of the perpetrators of illegal-war/illegal-invasion/illegal-military-occupation crimes ultimately. THOSE crimes are committed near-only by WHITE upper managements of major corporations.

      Beyond, and more important than, the preceding matters is a fundamental problem — humans tend, at least silently, privately, or unconsciously to prefer or prefer to associate with like kind and shy from or dislike the different. Such is natural. Whites really think Blacks stink. East Asians think Whites & Blacks stink. Blacks think Whites have unattractive smell.

      I learned from my Black roommate that humans admits that actually-genetic fact have the hope of avoiding its unfortunate consequences. One must admit that fact and then find ways of rendering effectively insignificant — E.G., by concentrating on UNLIKE kind INDIVIDUALS’ appealing virtues and learning to disregard the to-you-unappealing characteristics of the GROUP (“race,” “ethnicity”) of which the likeable or tolerable individual is a member.

      Also, individuals, groups, societies, and governments can choose among means of resolving or diminishing the problem of crime-rates. We need not choose racist or other draconian solutions. Surely, we must use punishment to deter crime and to provide retribution (which victims need).

      [I prefer the Chinese form — public caning or whipping, especially if done by the victim(s). That means is socioeconomically efficient and the most fair to punished. The punished need not be housed and fed long at public expense. The punished can return to society and family or whatever may be the punished life-prospects. Public caning or whipping has been proven the most deterrent punishment and most likely to convert a criminal to a non-criminal productive member of society.]

      But, reform is immensely more important than punishment — for society’s protection. Instead of contemning criminal Blacks, Whites ought join with others to foster betterment of the state of the life of the sea of Blacks who are deprived socioeconomically, educationally, and politically, and also more intelligent, better educated, and more successful Blacks ought to be encouraged to reproduce more and other Blacks encouraged (but not forced) to reproduce less. Such reform measure is in the best interest of Whites.

      Whites, too, need some “re-education.”

      Whites need to appreciate the extent to which, during the 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, and 20th Centuries, Whites cause Black antisocial behavior by Whites’ maltreatment — often horrendous maltreatment — of Blacks. See my earlier comments in which discussed how not only oft-brutal slavery, Ku Klux Klan actions, lynchings, and Jim Crow governmental and private conduct, but also illegitimate incarcerations, the peonage system, and other inhumane or oppressive anti-Black White behavior induces Blacks to feel hopeless or to hate Whites.

      Hating Blacks and continuing to oppress them will not solve, but worsen, the problem of Black violent crime. Ultimately, the solution lies in (a) maximizing individual freedom and opportunity of EVERY INDIVIDUAL — of EVERY “race” or ethnicity and (b) reasonable patience.

      You wrote: “I’ve seen it [“lawlessness”] among the Irish, Sicilians, Calabrese, Corsicans, etc., but it really is more pronounced, extreme and mindless among the coloureds.” Why did you not include Englishmen or Germans or Frenchmen or Spanish or……..?

      I could cite quite enough mass-criminality among THOSE peoples, including mass-criminality of which Blacks, Irish, Sicilians, Calabrese, and Corsicans were victims. But his comment is long enough. And I must cease commenting here and attend my part (researching, planning, and producing litigation-documents) of habeas corpus litigation being pursued to exonerate and free an unjustly convicted WHITE.

      • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    184. @Hypatia

      corruption … gangs … war over drug routes … things like that.

    185. Loup-Bouc says:
      @Commentator Mike

      TO: Commentator Mike, re: your reply of February 22, 2020 at 6:13 am GMT

      I found time enough to skim over my reply of February 22, 2020 at 11:00 pm GMT (replying to yours of February 22, 2020 at 6:13 am GMT). I saw a few typing errors and editing glitches. Only one seemed serious enough to demand correction. The error is in this paragraph:

      But neither multiple regression nor Bayesian probability calculus can determine causation — at least because of the problem of prior probability, in the case of Bayesian probability calculus, or unavoidable subjectivity (E.G., in choice/definition/weighting of variables), in the case of multiple regression [which subjectivity problem is essentially the same as the Bayesian probability prior probability problem and also infects Bayesian “calculation” of variable-values, the “V”s of P(X∣V1)P(V2∣X&V1)…etc, and P(not-X∣V1)P(V2∣not-X&V1)…etc].

      The serious error is an editing glitch that occurs in the Bayesian probability statements. The statements ought to be these:
      P(V1|X)P(V2|V1&X)…etc., and P(V1|not-X)P(V2|V1 & not-X)…etc.

      I noticed also a slight redundancy, the first term “probability” of the phrase “Bayesian probability prior probability problem.” The redundant term “probability” ought to be absent.

      Corrected, the paragraph is this:

      But neither multiple regression nor Bayesian probability calculus can determine causation — at least because of the problem of prior probability, in the case of Bayesian probability calculus, or unavoidable subjectivity (E.G., in choice/definition/weighting of variables), in the case of multiple regression [which subjectivity problem is essentially the same as the Bayesian prior probability problem and also infects Bayesian “calculation” of variable-values, the “V”s of P(V1|X)P(V2|V1&X)…etc., and P(V1|not-X)P(V2|V1 & not-X)…etc.].

      Sorry.

    186. @Loup-Bouc

      Why did you not include Englishmen or Germans or Frenchmen or Spanish or……..?

      Because the examples I mentioned showed in my experience that Sicilians, Calabrese, Corsicans were more criminally minded. This does not mean that they don’t have some other, in my opinion, redeeming character traits over other Italians, French, etc. And Glaswegians are generally far more criminal than the average Scots but it doesn’t make them any less likable in other respects.

      Whites really think Blacks stink. East Asians think Whites & Blacks stink. Blacks think Whites have unattractive smell.

      That different races smell to each other is well known and accepted and commented on by other races more than by whites, who even if they notice it prefer to keep quiet so as not to get accused of being racists for stating that other races stink. I think a lot of this can be due to diet but maybe there’s a genetic component, and personal hygiene. Anyway, in terms of personal hygiene Southeast Asians are far cleaner than whites, showering several times a day, yet in the cleanliness of their public spaces they are far worse. Arabs also have a problem with it but then water is scarce in desert lands.

      I won’t go into a detailed response to your comment but all that you mentioned won’t make much difference to me or the advice I’d offer other whites if they want to avoid aggravation, at least one which does have a racial component.

      Of course war is crime but we’re talking about peace time, and anyway all races engage in war, and some are far more brutal and crueler than whites but lack the technology for efficient mass murder.

      I’d add that the police are probably the biggest organised crime gang out there.

      I don’t know if more severe punishments, like caning, would really deter hardened criminals, as they’d wear the scars as a badge of honour and proof of their toughness, but could perhaps prevent more of the general population sliding into criminal activity. I’d certainly want more severe punishments for white collar economic crimes up to how the Chinese deal with them with a bullet, and death sentences for psychopaths and child molesters.

      I am aware of the limitation of statistics and some of your criticism of the raw data, like false convictions, but I still don’t think it would significantly alter the analysis, or more to the point the general opinion an open minded person would draw based on personal experience in different racial environments.

      Also, don’t forget that cops and prosecutors often strike deals with some arrested criminal to confess to a string of crimes that remain unsolved and that they didn’t commit in exchange for a lighter sentence agreed with a judge so as to help them clear their own books and improve their own statistics of how well (not) they’re doing their job.

      You’ve lived among blacks and drawn your own conclusions. There are other commenters on this site who are also in the legal profession (TKK comes to mind) and on the racial issue they have come to very different conclusions from yourself. Also others, in the non-legal professions, who have lived and worked with blacks have shed their previous anti-racist and liberal/left-leaning beliefs. Here’s one example recently published on another site:

      https://www.counter-currents.com/2020/02/the-red-pilling-of-spencer-quinn/

      To conclude, in racially homogeneous societies and communities these racial issues are non-existent, obviously (tautology), and thankfully. My concern is why add these problems where there are none already, which is the globalist policy with its drive for greater immigration and relocation of immigrants to white nations and communities.

      And sure, if whites were more like some of these other races, like more clannish and more violent, they’d stand a better chance of resisting what is being imposed on them. Lynching of street criminals, such as necklacing, by the general public is commonplace in Africa, as is locals rising violently to oust immigrant labourers (e.g. Zimbabweans in South Africa) or expelling long-settled but non-integrated communities (Jews by Arabs). And no other races feel guilt over their past. The Mongols praise Genghis Khan as their national hero and are proud of the glory of his conquests. Arabs and Turks feel no guilt for having enslaved countless Europeans and conquering their lands. So why deny whites the same: to praise their history, good or bad, and protect their nations and communities by violence if necessary? Oh yes we whites are so civilised and look where it got us.

      • Replies: @Loup-Bouc
      , @Loup-Bouc
    187. @TRM

      Small-time studies showed good correlation between “female-headed household” and “social dysfunction” (= violence and theft in school). Boys are more fragile than girls, and at different ages.
      Larger-scale, race-selective and longitudinal datasets are hard to come by, and the available proxies (“eligible for free or reduced lunch”) are problematic.
      For reasons incompletely understood blacks seem to do better in Catholic schools (i.e. it is hard to rule out preselection bias), so Anarchyst has a point too.

      • Replies: @nokangaroos
    188. BlackFlag says:
      @Commentator Mike

      Well, I guess that the reason why people are arguing so fiercely against Unz’s conclusion on crime, is because admitting it renders them unable to oppose mass immigration on those grounds.

      But they still have a case. Hispanics in predominantly White societies don’t commit too much crime. But Hispanic-run societies are crime ridden, even more so than African ones. Plenty of US regions will become overwhelmingly Hispanic.j

      Who knows why but that’s how it is. Maybe it’s something like the combination of tolerance/softness/complacency on the enforcement side coupled with lack of inhibition/high time preference on the perp side. Or maybe Hispanics in USA simply have enough money.

      By the way, coming from South America, Unz conclusion seems really strange. In countries like Argentina, without Blacks, everyone knows who’s committing the crime. LOL @ the probability of 2 motochorros (thieves on motorcycle) being White. The crime wave started and grew in step with Mestizo mass immigration.

      • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
    189. Judging by this article from Ron Unz we should return to forcing Blacks to move off the sidewalk to the other side of the Road when WHITES and other non Blacks approach; Whites only drinking fountains; Different and side theater Entrances for Blacks; If they even look at White women, they should be arrested and/or BEATEN; Seats in the BACK of the Buses is a given and hanging a few Blacks on Posts and trees for good measure

      Those and a few other measures . from the 1950’s and earlier should work even better Ron. Have you considered using your ancestors slave ships to return blacks to Africa?

      The American way…………..

      Don’t solve the financial disparities and psychological problems caused by at least 300 years of abuse, which continue, (with psychological remnants and in Reality to this day) would take time and effort and INTELLIGENCE, to correct ………….NO lets use the old-fashioned , DUMB,Supremacist Psychopathic way.. also the ISRAELI/American ASHKENAZI way –

      SLAVERY with a MODERN touch…………….and you wonder why crime by Blacks is worse than others. I personally don’t blame them. Maybe, just maybe they are FED UP with Authoritarianism, Hypocrisy and SUPREMACY, by people like you and most commenters herein, who know nothing about REAL African history.They only know the Freemason and Zionist versions

      I’m Libertarian, not LEFT, by the way.

      Just a coincidence ,Ron, that you would approve “Stop and Frisk”, which was conducted on mainly Black folk ???

      I am expecting this comment will be “Google-fied” because it is a truth Freemason/Zionists and other SUPREMACISTS, s you appear, wont like, but it had to be spoken.

      The GOOD NEWS? Blacks WILL get Justice at the right time and I suspect,as in South Africa, it will be bloody -“What GOES around,COMES around” !

      (By the way,you suggest that we can use unreal, non-existing names and email addresses BUT in my case you refuse what IS one of my legitimate emails but accept my former email account, which I no longer use and probably no longer exists

    190. Loup-Bouc says:
      @Commentator Mike

      To Commentator Mike, re: your reply of February 23, 2020 at 6:46 am GMT

      I cannot spare time enough to reply much to your last-preceding reply. My law-work demands most of my time. I do want to apologize, again, for the typing and editing errors of my last preceding comment replying to you (my comment of February 22, 2020 at 11:00 pm GMT).

      I choose, randomly, to reply, once more, concerning two matters.

      (1) You seem to have misunderstood my observation that each “race” dislikes the smell of other “races.” That observation was merely an example of the contents of a much larger matter. Perhaps my typing errors contributed to your misunderstanding.

      [MORE]

      I shall correct the typing errors and editing glitches of the perhaps-problematic paragraph:

      I learned from my Black roommate that if humans admit the genetic truth that humans gravitate to like kind and shy from others, humans have hope of avoiding that genetic truth’s unfortunate consequences. One must admit that genetic truth and then find ways of rendering it effectively insignificant — E.G., by concentrating on UNLIKE-kind INDIVIDUALS’ virtues one finds APPEALING and learning to disregard the UNAPPEALING characteristics of the GROUP (“race,” “ethnicity”) of which the likable or tolerable individual is a member.

      I ought add: If we follow, in hurtful action, our genetic preference of like kind and our genetic predisposition that inclines us to recoil from, even hurt, unlike kinds, we will risk suffering harm or loss, ourselves. We will risk causing unlike kinds to recoil from, even harm, us — as we recoil from or harm them.

      (2) You wrote:

      Of course war is crime but we’re talking about peace time, and anyway all races engage in war, and some are far more brutal and crueler than whites but lack the technology for efficient mass murder.

      You misapprehend the matter.

      The matter is NOT only what we do in purely domestically in peacetime. Our illegal wars, invasions, military occupations, and CIA transgressions are illegal domestically according to domestic (U.S.) law — E.G., U.S. treaties, U.N. Charter provisions and other U.N. provisions the U.S. signed, sundry Geneva Conventions of which the U.S. is a party, U.S. rules governing U.S. military conduct (including conduct of high-level military decision-makers)…….

      And, not only foreigners die or suffer serious injury in their countries because of U.S. leaders’ violations of those U.S. domestic laws. U.S. citizens die or suffer serious injury: those who do the actual fighting abroad — a disproportionate number of which is Black.

      Often those U.S. troops die or suffer disability when they return home. And their early deaths (wherever they occur) and their disabilities are costs, even economic costs, borne by the U.S. citizenry (except the criminals and their greedy military-industrial-complex co-conspirators). And (except the criminals and their greedy military-industrial-complex co-conspirators) the general U.S. citizenry suffers dire economic and other consequences of the trillions of tax dollars the criminals spend on committing those crimes.

    191. Loup-Bouc says:
      @Commentator Mike

      To Commentator Mike, re: your reply of February 23, 2020 at 6:46 am GMT

      This note supplements my reply of about a half hour ago: February 23, 2020 at 7:30 pm GMT.

      In my February 23, 2020, 7:30 pm GMT observations respecting crimes of those U.S. leaders and their co-conspirators who cause the U.S. to wage illegal wars, illegal invasions, and illegal military occupations, I neglected to observe a major cost-category other than those I discussed there.

      [MORE]

      Beyond the cost of production of military materiel (ships, planes, weapons, etc.), are other species of cost — like, but not only, costs of feeding, clothing, and maintaining military personnel and the immense cost of petroleum products used to conduct military adventures.

      The petroleum costs are not only the direct expenses of purchasing petroleum products and shipping them or otherwise supplying them where the illegal military operations require. The costs include also the raising of the prices of ordinary domestic purchases of petroleum products and also the costs of environmental effects of crude oil searches and extractions and the carbon and other toxic emissions consequent to petroleum-products use.

      And, even if you believe that petroleum use emissions do not, or may not, cause global warming, you must concede that petroleum extraction-and-transport causes direct land & water spoilage and that petroleum use emissions put toxins in the atmosphere and, hence, on the ground and in Earth’s waters.

      And the carbon emissions appear surely to reduce ocean-water pH, and that effect threatens the health of the seas, upon which humans and many other creatures, even near-all life-forms, depend for survival. Some deny the harmful ocean-effect of the carbon emissions; but the deniers are very few and have not made their case even nearly well as those who have shown the pH reduction and related sea-health harms.

    192. Lawdy.

      These are not even straw”men” … these are frayed strawPUSSIES.
      Why on Earth would anyone want to censor you?
      You and Loup-Bouc are the answer to Voltaire´s Prayer!

      Enjoy 😀

    193. Tlotsi says:
      @E. Waldo Ralpherson

      Zimmerman was an amateur sanitation worker, and he was just taking out the trash.

      • LOL: nokangaroos
    194. @nokangaroos

      The methodical problem here is that no one in his right mind would regard “single mom”, “free lunch” and “violent crime” as anything but proxy for “black”, IOW it is obvious the variables are not independent in the first place;
      once you understand the maff of what that means, this discussion becomes moot.

    195. @BlackFlag

      …Hispanic countries are run by callous indifferent white Spaniards, often either the children of Spanish emigrants (Like Castro or Che Guevara) or from old land-owning descendants of Spanish administrators (Mexico, Central America).

      …There are no Affirmative Action programs, money means everything, police are mostly Mestizos and corrupt.

      …It makes zero difference to these whites at the top of the Latin pyramid how poor, suffering or desperate the blacks are.

      …Drugs are more or less decriminalized and cheap. When crack is 50 cents per hit you have many high crazy people.

      …Racially, it really depends. Cuban whites don’t commit crime. Mestizos do.

    196. melpol says:

      Crime fighter cannot depend on government or neighbors to prevent them from becoming a victim of tough street crime. Most street crimes happen in the dark hours. Plan your activities during daylight. Avoid using ATM machines installed in outdoor areas. Parking lots are crime infested. Car jackers, rapists, and robbers can lurk near your parked car. Try to have a companion with you if using a parking lot. Expect to get raped if you are using the streets after dark. Rapists are gentle if you submit quietly. Never attempt to scratch or punch the rapist, they are stronger than you. Use your cell phone to report the incident, the predator might still be in the area. Refusal to report the incident sets you up for another rape by the same predator. Home invasion is a favorite, it is difficult to prevent. Home invaders come in all sizes and shapes. Never open the door unless a visitor is expected. Firearms is not a protection when the door opens and a few predators suddenly barge in. Safe environments are impossible to find, tough crime is everywhere. I pray for you.

      • Replies: @The Grim Joker
    197. Mr. Unz,

      It looks like plenty of cities in the Midwest took Mr. Bloomberg’s suggestion! You did a great job writing about the criminal statistics of Hispanic-Asian immigrants. The Center for American Progress wrote a piece about how these same Immigrants are saving towns throughout the Midwest. Check it out, it might be something you can add to your article. This report should shut up some of your skeptics. Opportunities are out there, if whites or blacks do not take them someone will…these people are replacing the sons and daughters that left the farms and small towns for bigger and better things in the Big City.

      https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/reports/2018/09/02/455269/revival-and-opportunity/

      From Beautiful Mexico, with love…J.G.

      • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
    198. @J. Gutierrez

      Canada has few Latino immigrants. And the Midwest and Canada are regionally the same, except with a border between them (I come from that border). Are Toronto and Vancouver and Alberta worse because they have no Hispanics?

      Actually, Toronto does. They have Portuguese, a group that was more common in Canada than in the US .

    199. @melpol

      You lost me at “rapists are gentle……..”. From there on your counsel was absolute rubbish !

      This is great advice for your mother, sister or other female relatives. You must have been living under a rock these past years.

      These days rape and home invasion do not seem to satisfy the perpetrators. They are happy to rob and rape but giddy with joy when they ultimately torture and murder the victim. Home invaders come in all shapes and sizes but when my door opens and a few predators barge in some can expect to be immediately smoked. Better for me to take one or two out rather than them telling me “let us tie you and your wife up and we promise no one will get hurt”.

      To each his own but I rather fight ferociously for my life and that of my family and die rather than submit and end up dying anyway.

      Your advice is bullshit ! Keep praying you moron. God will come to your assistance while you are being brutalized !

      • Replies: @melpol
    200. orionyx says:
      @Kali

      Right. That would account for black behavior in the USA. Now explain it in Brazil, Haiti, and the whole of Africa south and west of the Sahara, in the UK, and anywhere else they congregate. There must be a huge industry of very profitable businesses involved. Can you tell us how to invest?

    201. melpol says:
      @The Grim Joker

      Home invasion is on the increase and unless there is a murder they are seldom reported. Guilt prevents victims from filing a police report. The rape and torture is shoved to the back of the victims minds. Hospital visits to heal the injury’s are never detailed. Most home invasions are well calculated, the predators prefer the victims to be at home. Victims can then be tortured and raped until the hiding place of valuables are known. Unfortunately the predators have the advantage of surprise. They pick homes surrounded by pretty gardens. Thinking that the owners live in a world of dancing through the Tulips.

      • Replies: @anarchyst
    202. anarchyst says:
      @melpol

      “Home invasion is on the increase and unless there is a murder they are seldom reported.”

      You are wrong. In order to file an insurance claim, a police report is required.

      “Most home invasions are well calculated, the predators prefer the victims to be at home.”

      Wrong again. Most criminals prefer an unoccupied house where they can take their time looking for valuables. If occupants are present that complicates the situation.

      • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
    203. @anarchyst

      …Commercial burglaries are rarely solved because these are carried out by white career criminals who have planned the heist for six months, have equipment like electronic scramblers that will silence alarms, sophisticated tools for entry, anonymous rented vehicles.

      …Italian mob-connected burglars will tell you its usually an inside job involving an insurance adjuster and the perpetrators will study him for weeks to ensure nobody is home.

      …Blacks break into some elderly woman’s house to steal and a microwave and tie her up and rape her. Sometimes Hispanics, but most of the time they deal in drugs and stolen cars.

      …Most home invasions are testosterone-charged sex acts. Or they are the activity of crazed bottomed-out white tweakers.

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